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Weekly Look Ahead

May 16, 2024 (Updated Every Thursday)

1–5 Day

Over the next five days (May 16–21), heavy precipitation of 2–5 inches is expected to continue to fall in the far South from central Texas to western Georgia, with 1 to 2 inches of rain expected in surrounding areas into the southern Midwest and Mid-Atlantic coast. 

The rest of the central and eastern United States will see some light precipitation. Much of the West will miss out on this precipitation.

6–10 Day

The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center’s 6–10 day outlook heavily favors above-normal temperatures from New Mexico to Wisconsin, from Maine and down into Florida, with the greatest probabilities in southern Texas. The Southwest and High Plains are expected to have near-normal temperatures; areas to the west of this region will likely be cooler than normal. Hawaii and northern Alaska are more likely  to be warmer than normal, whereas parts central and western Alaska are leaning towards below-normal temperatures. Odds favor above-normal precipitation for much of the country. New Mexico and central and southern Texas are leaning toward below-normal precipitation, with near-normal precipitation favored along the western and eastern coasts. The Big Island of Hawaii is likely to see above-normal precipitation, along with central and northern Alaska. Southern Alaska is leaning toward below-normal precipitation.

 

This weekly look ahead is modified from the U.S. Drought Monitor's National Drought Summary for May 14, 2024, written by Lindsay Johnson (National Drought Mitigation Center) and Richard Tinker (NOAA's Climate Prediction Center).

Featured Outlooks & Forecasts

Predicting drought depends on the ability to forecast precipitation and temperature within the context of complex climate interactions. Many different datasets and maps are available that predict how precipitation and temperature may change in the future.

Official NOAA Drought Outlooks

Drought Is Predicted To...
Drought Is Predicted To...

Official NOAA Precipitation Forecast

Predicted Inches of Precipitation
1.75
Predicted Inches of Precipitation
1.75

Official NOAA Precipitation Outlooks

Probability of Below-Normal Precipitation
100%
Probability of Above-Normal Precipitation
100%
Probability of Below-Normal Precipitation
100%
Probability of Above-Normal Precipitation
100%
Probability of Below-Normal Precipitation
100%
Probability of Above-Normal Precipitation
100%
Probability of Near-Normal Precipitation
50%
Probability of Below-Normal Precipitation
100%
Probability of Above-Normal Precipitation
100%
Probability of Near-Normal Precipitation
50%

Official NOAA Temperature Outlooks

Probability of Below-Normal Temperatures
100%
Probability of Above-Normal Temperatures
100%
Probability of Below-Normal Temperatures
100%
Probability of Above-Normal Temperatures
100%
Probability of Below-Normal Temperatures
100%
Probability of Above-Normal Temperatures
100%
Probability of Near-Normal Temperatures
50%
Probability of Below-Normal Temperatures
100%
Probability of Above-Normal Temperatures
100%
Probability of Near-Normal Temperatures
50%

Challenges with Predicting Drought

Pressure Systems

High pressure systems, which hinder cloud formation and lead to low relative humidity and precipitation, can cause drought. When large-scale anomalies in atmospheric circulation patterns last for months or seasons, prolonged drought occurs (NDMC).

Temperate Zone Forecast Reliability

In temperate regions (above 30 north latitude), long-range forecasts have limited reliability. Due to differences in observed conditions and statistical models, reliable forecasts for temperate regions may not be attainable for a season or more in advance (NDMC).

Interconnected Variables

Anomalies in precipitation and temperature may last from several months to several decades, and how long they last can depend on air–sea interactions, soil moisture, land surface processes, topography, and weather systems at the global scale (NDMC).

ENSO and Global Weather Patterns

Teleconnections, such as ENSO and La Niña events, are atmospheric interactions between widely separated regions. Understanding these teleconnections can help in forecasting droughts, floods, tropical storms, and hurricanes (NDMC).