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Weekly Look Ahead

May 2, 2024 (Updated Every Thursday)

1–6 Day

Between the evening of Wednesday, May 1 to Monday, May 6, the National Weather Service's Weather Prediction Center is forecasting moderate to heavy rain amounts from central Texas and northern Louisiana northward into the mid-Missouri and upper-Mississippi River valleys. In this region, rainfall amounts are forecast to range from a half inch to locally as high as 3 inches, especially in parts of Oklahoma, Texas, and northern Louisiana. Similar precipitation amounts are also forecast in western Washington and Oregon, while some precipitation exceeding 1 inch is also forecast in parts of the northern Sierra Nevada. 

Mostly dry weather is forecast for eastern Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona, southwest Nevada, southern California and deep south Texas.

6–10 Day

For May 7–11, the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center’s outlook favors colder-than-normal weather across much of the western U.S., with the highest confidence for colder-than-normal weather centered over Idaho and northern Nevada. Warmer-than-normal weather is expected in much of the southeast half of the contiguous U.S., especially from Texas northeast to the mid-Atlantic. Above-normal precipitation is favored in the northern U.S., especially eastern Montana, while below-normal precipitation is favored in coastal California, southern New Mexico and southern and western Texas, southeast Louisiana and most of Florida. All of Alaska is favored to receive above-normal precipitation, with confidence highest outside of the far west and northwest. With the exception of the Big Island, the forecast slightly favors above-normal precipitation in Hawaii.

 

This weekly look ahead is modified from the U.S. Drought Monitor's National Drought Summary for April 30, 2024, written by Curtis Riganti and Lindsay Johnson (National Drought Mitigation Center).

Featured Outlooks & Forecasts

Predicting drought depends on the ability to forecast precipitation and temperature within the context of complex climate interactions. Many different datasets and maps are available that predict how precipitation and temperature may change in the future.

Official NOAA Drought Outlooks

Drought Is Predicted To...
Drought Is Predicted To...

Official NOAA Precipitation Forecast

Predicted Inches of Precipitation
1.75
Predicted Inches of Precipitation
1.75

Official NOAA Precipitation Outlooks

Probability of Below-Normal Precipitation
100%
Probability of Above-Normal Precipitation
100%
Probability of Below-Normal Precipitation
100%
Probability of Above-Normal Precipitation
100%
Probability of Below-Normal Precipitation
100%
Probability of Above-Normal Precipitation
100%
Probability of Near-Normal Precipitation
50%
Probability of Below-Normal Precipitation
100%
Probability of Above-Normal Precipitation
100%
Probability of Near-Normal Precipitation
50%

Official NOAA Temperature Outlooks

Probability of Below-Normal Temperatures
100%
Probability of Above-Normal Temperatures
100%
Probability of Below-Normal Temperatures
100%
Probability of Above-Normal Temperatures
100%
Probability of Below-Normal Temperatures
100%
Probability of Above-Normal Temperatures
100%
Probability of Near-Normal Temperatures
50%
Probability of Below-Normal Temperatures
100%
Probability of Above-Normal Temperatures
100%
Probability of Near-Normal Temperatures
50%

Challenges with Predicting Drought

Pressure Systems

High pressure systems, which hinder cloud formation and lead to low relative humidity and precipitation, can cause drought. When large-scale anomalies in atmospheric circulation patterns last for months or seasons, prolonged drought occurs (NDMC).

Temperate Zone Forecast Reliability

In temperate regions (above 30 north latitude), long-range forecasts have limited reliability. Due to differences in observed conditions and statistical models, reliable forecasts for temperate regions may not be attainable for a season or more in advance (NDMC).

Interconnected Variables

Anomalies in precipitation and temperature may last from several months to several decades, and how long they last can depend on air–sea interactions, soil moisture, land surface processes, topography, and weather systems at the global scale (NDMC).

ENSO and Global Weather Patterns

Teleconnections, such as ENSO and La Niña events, are atmospheric interactions between widely separated regions. Understanding these teleconnections can help in forecasting droughts, floods, tropical storms, and hurricanes (NDMC).