Document

North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) based outlook and sub-seasonal forecast products

Document Author

Shrad Shukla, UC Santa Barbara

Document File

North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) based outlook and sub-seasonal forecast products (7.09 MB)

Document Date

February 9, 2017

Document Type

Presentations

Document Description

Contents:

Recap of precipitation and temperature forecasts and skill analysis
Recent precipitation and temperature forecasts and skill analysis
Initial skill analysis of S2S products based on NMME forecasts

Summary

“Limited” seasonal (>1 month) precipitation and temperature forecast skill.
It’s important to look at historical skill before utilizing operational forecasts.
March precipitation, and June and July temperature seem to be most skilfull at seasonal scale.
For the upcoming season, below normal March precipitation in Southern California, and above normal June, July temperature is likely.
The NMME models (3 of them analyzed) have limited yet promising level of sub-seasonal skill (less than 1 month).
Sub-seasonal skill analysis to be continued. Analysis to include large scale climate oscillations as well.

Title slide from presentation on North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) based outlook and sub-seasonal forecast products showing the title, author name, and contact info on a geometric pale green background

State(s)

DEWS Region(s)

California Nevada

Climate Region(s)

Western Climate Region