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Weekly Look Ahead

September 16, 2025 (Updated Every Thursday)

1–7 Day

Widespread precipitation is forecast across the Plains states and portions of the Midwest along and west of the Mississippi River during the upcoming week. This rainfall has a potential to bring much needed relief to regions that have experienced rapidly worsening drought conditions. In contrast, lighter rainfall is forecast for the Ohio Valley and East, which, coupled with warmer temperatures, may further exacerbate conditions in areas that have been experiencing rapid drought onset. Another week of heavy rainfall is favored for southern Florida, with drier conditions favored across the Piedmont region of the Southeast. Wet conditions early in the week across the Southwest will give way to a drier pattern overall through the end of the week, though chances of rain will increase by the end of the week across the Northwest.

6–10 Day

The Climate Prediction Center’s 6-10 day outlook (valid for September 23–27) favors above-normal temperatures across the entire contiguous United States, with the highest probabilities extending across the north-central states. Above-normal precipitation is favored across the West Coast and Intermountain West, and across much of Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley and lower Ohio Valley. In contrast, below-normal precipitation is favored along the Rockies and eastward across much of the Great Plains, upper-Midwest, and the western Great Lakes region. Across Alaska, below-normal temperatures are favored for the western half of the state, with above-normal favored for the Panhandle. Near to below-normal precipitation is forecast. For Hawaii, both above-average temperatures and above-average precipitation are favored.

 

This weekly look ahead is modified from the U.S. Drought Monitor's National Drought Summary for September 16, 2025, written by Adam Allgood (NOAA's Climate Prediction Center) and Brad Rippey (U.S. Department of Agriculture).
 

Featured Outlooks & Forecasts

Predicting drought depends on the ability to forecast precipitation and temperature within the context of complex climate interactions. Many different datasets and maps are available that predict how precipitation and temperature may change in the future.

Official NOAA Drought Outlooks

Drought Is Predicted To...
Drought Is Predicted To...
2-4 Week Hazard Outlook

Official NOAA Precipitation Forecast

Predicted Inches of Precipitation
1.75
Predicted Inches of Precipitation
1.75

Official NOAA Precipitation Outlooks

Probability of Below-Normal Precipitation
100%
Probability of Above-Normal Precipitation
100%
Probability of Below-Normal Precipitation
100%
Probability of Above-Normal Precipitation
100%
Probability of Below-Normal Precipitation
100%
Probability of Above-Normal Precipitation
100%
Probability of Near-Normal Precipitation
50%
Probability of Below-Normal Precipitation
100%
Probability of Above-Normal Precipitation
100%
Probability of Near-Normal Precipitation
50%

Official NOAA Temperature Outlooks

Probability of Below-Normal Temperatures
100%
Probability of Above-Normal Temperatures
100%
Probability of Below-Normal Temperatures
100%
Probability of Above-Normal Temperatures
100%
Probability of Below-Normal Temperatures
100%
Probability of Above-Normal Temperatures
100%
Probability of Near-Normal Temperatures
50%
Probability of Below-Normal Temperatures
100%
Probability of Above-Normal Temperatures
100%
Probability of Near-Normal Temperatures
50%

Official NOAA Heat Hazard Outlooks

Hazard Outlook for Days 3–7
Hazard Outlook for Days 8–14

Official NOAA Fire Weather Outlook

Forecast Risk of Fire Weather

Challenges with Predicting Drought

Pressure Systems

High pressure systems, which hinder cloud formation and lead to low relative humidity and precipitation, can cause drought. When large-scale anomalies in atmospheric circulation patterns last for months or seasons, prolonged drought occurs (NDMC).

Temperate Zone Forecast Reliability

In temperate regions (above 30 north latitude), long-range forecasts have limited reliability. Due to differences in observed conditions and statistical models, reliable forecasts for temperate regions may not be attainable for a season or more in advance (NDMC).

Interconnected Variables

Anomalies in precipitation and temperature may last from several months to several decades, and how long they last can depend on air–sea interactions, soil moisture, land surface processes, topography, and weather systems at the global scale (NDMC).

ENSO and Global Weather Patterns

Teleconnections, such as ENSO and La Niña events, are atmospheric interactions between widely separated regions. Understanding these teleconnections can help in forecasting droughts, floods, tropical storms, and hurricanes (NDMC).