Outlooks & Forecasts
5–7 Day Outlook
The most significant weather for the next 5 days (January 21–26, 2021) will be widespread heavy precipitation across the Southeast. Between 1.5 and 4.0 inches are forecast from eastern Texas through southern Alabama and northern Georgia, and light to moderate amounts should dampen the rest of the Southeast. Farther west, from the central and southern Rockies to the California coast, significant precipitation will fall on the higher elevations. Most of the mountains are expecting 1 to 3 inches, with 0.5 to 2.5 inches expected in the rest of the Southwest and the Pacific Northwest. Elsewhere, light to moderate precipitation of up to 0.5 inch is forecast for the upper Midwest, and little to none is expected over the Northeast, High Plains, and the remainder of the Midwest and Great Pains.
6–10 Day Outlook
The 6–10 day Climate Prediction Center extended range outlook (January 27–31, 2021) favors surplus precipitation from the Rockies to the West Coast, most of the Midwest, and part of the interior Southeast. Much of Alaska is also expecting above-normal precipitation. Meanwhile, the odds favor subnormal precipitation across Florida, in the Northeast and Ohio Valley, Southern Plains, and eastern Montana. Cooler than normal weather is anticipated in the Northeast, the middle Atlantic States, and a broad area from the Rockies to the West Coast. In contrast, enhanced chances for above-normal temperatures cover roughly the southeastern quarter of the country.
This weekly look ahead is modified from from the U.S. Drought Monitor's National Drought Summary for January 19, 2021 (published January 21), written by Richard Tinker (NOAA/Climate Prediction Center) and Curtis Riganti (National Drought Mitigation Center).
Drought Outlooks & Forecasts
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center's Monthly Drought Outlook is issued at the end of each calendar month and is valid for the upcoming month. The Outlook predicts whether drought will emerge, stay the same, or get better over the next 30 days or so. Learn more.
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center's Seasonal Drought Outlook is issued monthly on the third Thursday of each month. The Outlook predicts whether drought will emerge, stay the same, or get better in the next three months. Learn more.
Taking the U.S. Drought Monitor as a starting point, the Climate Prediction Center's Objective Drought Tendency Forecast is an integrated product that combines information from the flash drought development tool and subseasonal SPI3 forecasts. The forecast synthesizes information through a decision-tree process to determine whether drought will emerge, stay the same, or get better in the next 30 days, on a rolling basis. This tool is used to inform the official forecasts. Learn more.
Drought Outlook
Drought Outlook
Drought Outlook
Evaporative Demand and Flash Drought
The Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI) is an experimental drought monitoring and early warning guidance tool. It examines how anomalous the atmospheric evaporative demand (E0; also known as "the thirst of the atmosphere") is for a given location and across a time period of interest. This experimental subseasonal EDDI forecast shows projected evaporative demand for the next 28 days from the CFS-gridMET dataset at 4-km gridded resolution. Learn more.
Created by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC), this subseasonal tool predicts the areas susceptible for flash drought development. The real-time product started running in April 2018 and has been used to support CPC’s Monthly Drought Outlook efforts. The tool, which is used to inform official forecasts, calculates the rapid change index (RCI) using 7-day mean evapotranspiration anomalies. RCI is the accumulated magnitude of moisture stress changes occurring over multiple weeks, and drought is likely to develop when RCI is negative. In the legend below, a higher number of non-exceedances indicates a greater potential for flash drought development. Learn more.
Drought Categories
Wetness Categories
Number of Non-Exceedances (Range: 0-30)
The U.S. Monthly Drought Outlook predicts whether drought will emerge, stay the same or get better over the next 30 days or so.
The U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook depicts large-scale trends based on subjectively derived probabilities guided by short- and long-range statistical and dynamical forecasts.
Worldwide predictions for temperature and precipitation from the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society at Columbia University.
NCEI provides precipitation data that can be used to show probability or the amount of precipitation to ameliorate or end a drought at different monthly scales.
The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) produces temperature and precipitation outlooks for the U.S., including 6-10 day, 8-14 day, monthly, and seasonal outlooks.
The National Weather Service (NWS) Climate Prediction Center (CPC) produces monthly and seasonal drought outlooks based on Soil Moisture (CAS).