Drought Status Update for the Midwest U.S.

Key Points

• Portions of the Midwest region have seen significant improvement in drought conditions since the beginning of winter, particularly across areas in the Ohio River Basin. 
• Currently, 19% of the Midwest region is in drought (moderate to exceptional), which is 28% less than eight weeks ago in late November.
• Despite the improvement in some areas, extreme to exceptional drought (D3–D4) persists across northwest Iowa. Moderate to severe drought (D1–D2) also remains across Minnesota and Michigan. 
• Northwest Iowa, Minnesota, and western Wisconsin have received above-normal precipitation since December 1, 2022. This precipitation has been helpful to add water to the landscape. However, the ability to improve drought and replenish soil moisture, which was very low at the end of fall, is limited when the ground is frozen. Unfortunately, it is too early to determine the full benefit of the winter precipitation thus far.
• The February outlook shows the chance for above-normal precipitation to continue across most of the region, particularly the Great Lakes and Ohio River Basin. Far-western portions of the region that are in drought (western Iowa and northwest Missouri) have equal chances for above-, near-, or below-normal precipitation. 
• Continued above-normal precipitation this winter will likely be beneficial for drought improvement. However, if soils are frozen, this will limit the ability to replenish soil moisture and therefore improve drought ahead of the upcoming growing season. 
• In addition, above-normal precipitation in the winter is not a significant amount of water, as this on average is the driest time of year. Therefore, we will need multiple episodes of soaking rainfall and/or snow melting over thawed soils to significantly improve the areas still in drought.