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Severe droughts are a devastating climate event and are considered one of the costliest natural disasters in the United States. With droughts impacting both ecological and economic sectors, improving the capability to predict the evolution of drought and its severity and frequency more accurately and reliably is crucial for early drought warning and mitigation. There have been considerable efforts toward understanding the mechanisms and predictability of drought. However, the current level of skill in forecasting drought onset, development, and demise is limited. To address this need, NIDIS funded a study through NOAA’s Climate Program Office Modeling, Analysis, Predictions, and Projections (MAPP) Program.

NOAA’s National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) Program is announcing five new 2-year projects in Fiscal Year 2020 (FY20), through a multi-program collaboration, that aim to improve our understanding and use of drought indicators, thresholds and triggers, and drought impact reporting to inform decision-making to prepare for and respond to drought. The competitively selected projects total $2,776,805, including $2,541,397 in grants and $200,000 in other awards. 

Novel forms of drought are emerging globally due to a warming climate, shifting ocean and atmospheric teleconnection patterns, expanding human water use, and a history of human influence on the environment. These droughts are increasing the probability for transformational ecological impacts that cascade to human communities in costly and consequential ways. Developing a better understanding of the changing expression and impacts of drought across different ecosystems is one of today’s grand challenges. A recent study, published in One Earth, included scientists, managers, and decision-makers in a unique horizon-scanning approach—a systematic way to explore a topic that is looming—to identify the emerging issues in ecological drought.

Soil moisture is a critical variable and influences the climate system through modification of energy and moisture fluxes of the boundary layer. This in turn affects temperature, humidity, and precipitation. In addition, soil moisture is used as an indicator for agricultural drought, and recent studies have determined soil moisture as a key indicator of, and possible early warning for, flash drought in the United States.

This series of maps shows the current state of drought in the United States. Included are the factors that have led to the drought, primarily below average precipitation coupled with high to record-breaking temperatures; impacts such as the wildfires burning across the West; experimental drought indicators like the Evaporative Demand Drought Index; and outlooks for the rest of summer and fall.

Outdoor recreation is a major contributor to the Intermountain West’s economy, but the future viability of many businesses—particularly small businesses—in the industry is threatened by their drought vulnerabilities and the region’s projected increases in drought severity and frequency.

The National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) is excited to release our first Annual Report to provide insight into the many accomplishments of the program over the previous year and the opportunities that lie ahead. Milestones in 2019 included the NIDIS Reauthorization Act being signed into law in January, the publication of two reports examining the devastating 2017 Northern Plains drought in May, and NIDIS co-hosting the second National Drought Forum in July. These and many other achievements made for a year filled with advances in drought information delivery, research, and partnership-building, all of which we hope you enjoy learning more about in this report.

With most of the Western United States experiencing drought or dryness, this summer has the potential to be an especially challenging wildland fire year. Bryan Henry, Meteorologist with the National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC), recently provided the 2020 U.S. Fire Season Outlook in a presentation for the May NIDIS CA/NV DEWS Drought & Climate Outlook Webinar. Henry will also provide another update during the June 22 NIDIS Pacific Northwest DEWS webinar. 

A Red Flag Warning (RFW) is a term that has been used since the 1960s by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Weather Service (NWS) fire weather forecasters to alert forecast users to an ongoing or imminent critical fire weather pattern. 

The Alliance for Water Efficiency has released a new research study on municipal drought response and water demand. The report, Use and Effectiveness of Municipal Irrigation Restrictions During Drought, explores how drought response measures have been implemented and how water demand reductions have been achieved across different water suppliers in different states.