Characterizing Atmosphere, Land Surface, and Fire Interactions to Improve Drought Early Warnings Over the Great Plains and California

The Great Plains and California consist of the first and second largest economies in the U.S., but both regions are prone to extreme droughts. Yet, it is difficult to predict such droughts over a seasonal or longer time scale. Statistical models of past droughts appear to provide better skill, but it is not fully understood the cause behind the skill and whether they represent real predictability.

This project investigates the coupling between atmosphere, land surface/vegetation and fires, and its impact on drought onset and persistence over the Great Plains and California focusing on the following science questions:

• What large-scale anomalous circulation patterns are responsible for triggering seasonal drought memory and influence its climate variability?
• How does the coupling between drought and heat waves influence drought onsets and intensity regionally?
• Can fires intensify droughts?

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