Developing Drought Triggers and Indicators Using the National Water Model: A Case Study to Improve the U.S. Drought Monitor in Support of the Northeast DEWS

Assessments following the 2016 drought in New York and New England broadly identified data gaps related to soil moisture, streamflow, and groundwater levels. To address these shortcomings, this project seeks to demonstrate the utility of integrating historical National Water Model (NWM) reanalyses with bias adjustments derived from soil moisture data from the new, 126-station New York State Mesonet and USGS streamflow observations. The project will evaluate NWM skill over the Northeastern U.S. during historical droughts and build a case study around the region’s extreme 2016 drought. The work will then develop a set of drought indicators and forecasts best-suited for the Northeast DEWS which will be supported beyond the project's completion by the Northeast Regional Climate Center (NRCC).