PRObability of Streamflow PERmanence (PROSPER)

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has developed the PRObability of Streamflow PERmanence (PROSPER) model, a machine-learning model that provides streamflow permanence probabilities (probabilistic predictions) of a stream channel having year-round flow for any unregulated and minimally-impaired stream channel in the Pacific Northwest. The model provides annual predictions for 2004-2016 at a 30-m spatial resolution based on monthly or annually updated values of climatic conditions and static physiographic variables associated with the upstream basin. Predictions correspond to any pixel on the channel network consistent with the medium resolution National Hydrography Dataset channel network stream grid. Predictions are publicly available through the interactive USGS StreamStats platform, or downloadable in raw format through ScienceBase.

Results suggest that the PROSPER model can be a useful tool for identifying areas that may be resilient or sensitive to drought conditions, allowing for management efforts that target protecting critical reaches. Importantly, PROSPER's successful predictive performance can be improved with new datasets of streamflow underscoring the importance of field observations.