Intermountain West Drought & Climate Outlook Webinar: December 10, 2024

Welcome to the Intermountain West Drought Briefing 

Speaker: Dr. Gretel Follingstad | Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES)/University of Colorado Boulder; NOAA’s National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS)

• Welcome to the December 2024 Intermountain West Drought Briefing.
• Sign up for NIDIS emails as well as drought alerts.
• National Academies for Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Nominations for Drought Experts. Due January 24, 2025.
• 2025 Snow Drought Status Update: December 11, 2024
• Current Drought Conditions across the Intermountain West:
  • Arizona: 56.4% in drought (11.2% in Extreme Drought (D3) or greater)
  • Colorado: 10.4% in drought (0.3% in Extreme Drought (D3) or greater)
  • New Mexico: 29.1% in drought (5.2% in Extreme Drought (D3) or greater)
  • Utah: 18.9 % in drought (0% in Extreme Drought (D3) or greater)
  • Wyoming: 96.3 % in drought (22.4% in Extreme Drought (D3) or greater)
• View past webinar recordings at drought.gov/webinars.
• Introducing today's speakers:
  • Dr. Jon Meyer is the Assistant State Climatologist at the Utah Climate Center. He specializes in research-to-operations to address Utah’s climate services as well as operational numerical weather and climate modeling. Meyer has enjoyed pursuing topics focused on understanding western U.S. hydroclimate and precipitation changes in both the winter snowpack and summer monsoon seasons. In addition to his research-to-operations work, Meyer also serves on the Utah Drought Task Force and is the state coordinator for the Community Collaborative Rain, Hail, and Snow (CoCoRaHS) Network.
  • Dan McEvoy is a researcher with the Western Regional Climate Center and Desert Research Institute (DRI). His research is interdisciplinary and spans the fields of climate, hydrology, and meteorology. His research interests include advancing drought monitoring technology, seasonal drought prediction, climate variability, the role of evaporative demand on drought, quality and uncertainty assessment of weather observations, and climate modeling.

Current Drought Conditions and Outlook 

Speaker: Jon Meyer | Utah Climate Center at Utah State University

• Fall 2024 was much hotter and mostly drier than normal across the Intermountain West, though the end of November was cooler region-wide and wetter in the central portions of the Intermountain West .
• Early season snow events were welcome, but snowpack in the Intermountain West is behind schedule for this time of year, with the exception of central Utah and Colorado. Snow water equivalent (SWE) is below-average in much of the Intermountain West.
• Year-over-year reductions in soil moisture may deplete optimism for spring runoff.
• The Climate Prediction Center's seasonal outlook favors drier and warmer conditions across the southern U.S. for the winter months (December–February). There are equal chances for a normal winter of precipitation for the central Intermountain West states, and odds favor above-average precipitation for the northwestern half of Wyoming.
• Long-range forecast models feature a weather pattern that lacks high-impact winter events in 2025. Winter storms are expected to be weak, with below-normal snow accumulations. 
• These forecasts could result in drought degradations for various areas of the Intermountain West, but could provide drought improvement for Wyoming. 
• Soil moisture levels are below the 10th percentile across much of northwest and southeastern Wyoming and multiple dry areas in southwest New Mexico, northern Utah, and Arizona. 
• As of December 9, 2024, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral conditions continue to be present, with La Niña favored to emerge this winter (57% chance). 

Temperature and Soil Moisture Conditions Across the Intermountain West

Seasonal Temperature & Precipitation Outlooks for December–February

NIDIS Snow Drought Updates and Some Other Snowy Research Updates

Speaker: Dan McEvoy| Desert Research Institute, Western Regional Climate Center

• Snow droughts are more than just below-normal snowpack. Rising temperatures have a major impact on snow water equivalent (SWE).
• Understanding the definitions, drivers, timing, and impacts of snow drought are all still active areas of research for snow monitoring and water supply. 
• NIDIS’s snow drought status updates are released monthly throughout the snow season (December–May), providing a snapshot of current snow drought conditions across the western U.S. and Alaska.
• Currently, snow drought is most prevalent across Wyoming, Arizona, New Mexico, and southwest Montana. Low precipitation is driving snow drought across these states.
• The Desert Research Institute is working on a U.S. Bureau of Reclamation–funded project to implement a new method to measure snowpack temperature. This could improve how models represent snowmelt timing, runoff, and water supply.
• The project is starting its second year by expanding data collection with a new instrument for snow surveyors in California, Nevada, Colorado, and Montana. This will provide new field data for winter 2025.
• Read the December 11 Snow Drought Status Update.

Seasonal Temperature & Precipitation Outlooks for December–February

Q&A and Conclusion

Speaker: Dr. Gretel Follingstad | CIRES/CU Boulder, NOAA/NIDIS