North Central U.S. Climate and Drought Outlook Webinar: April 20, 2023

Welcome to the North Central U.S. Climate and Drought Outlook Webinar

Speaker: Dennis Todey, USDA Midwest Climate Hub

• The next regular North Central U.S. Climate and Drought Outlook Webinar is on May 18, 2023 (1pm CDT), with presentation from Justin Glisan, the State Climatologist for Iowa. Register here.
• View all future North Central webinars on Drought.gov.

Current Conditions

Speaker: Dennis Todey, USDA Midwest Climate Hub 

• Temperature conditions:
  • March 2023: Continuation of general winter pattern: warm in the south/east and cooler in the north/west. North Dakota had one of its top 5 coldest Marches (partially snow cover).
  • January–March: Similar temperature pattern for much of the winter: warmer-than-normal temperatures in the east, with colder temperatures in the west.
  • Last 30 days: Generally warmer-than-average to the east, and colder-than-average to the west/north.
• Precipitation: 
  • March 2023: The eastern Corn Belt was wet, while the Central Plains were dry.
  • January–March: Clear path on precipitation from California across the central U.S. 
  • Last 30 days: Large area of drier-than-normal conditions in the Plains, with pockets of wetter conditions (wettest around the Great Lakes). This is good for spring planting – but not good for drought recovery.

Issues and Events

Speaker: Dennis Todey, USDA Midwest Climate Hub 

• Snow: 
  • Snow loss in the north.
  • A number of snowfall records have been set.
  • Impacts:
    • Increased stress/death in pronghorn-mule deer in Wyoming (also pneumonia).
    • Stress on cattle out on the Plains from prolonged winter.
    • Flooding/runoff.
• Dry Air/Evaporation/Evapotranspiration:
  • Dry air, warmer temperatures, and windy conditions have led to high evaporation/evapotranspiration rates – daily losses are almost summer-like.
  • Example: Champaign, IL soils lost 1 inch of water in a week in early April.
• Fire:
  • Several states reported fires. Mostly smaller – nothing major. Some planned burns, with others unplanned.
  • Periodic smoke issues in Des Moines/Plains.
  • Grass fires in Wisconsin.
• Wind:
  • No major differences, from a climatological standpoint, so far this year.
  • April was somewhat above average in Kansas.
  • Red flag warnings have been frequent.
• Enhanced severe weather season:
  • Very active early season in southern/eastern parts of the region.
  • March 31–April: A record-breaking severe weather outbreak for Illinois and Indiana.
  • Quieter in the Plains/north.

Hydrologic Impacts

Speaker: Dennis Todey, USDA Midwest Climate Hub 

• 7-day average streamflows: High in the north (snow melt) and low in the Plains (Missouri/Iowa) and eastern Corn Belt.
• Soil moisture: Ongoing dryness in the Plains, with some dryness developing in the east. Soil moisture conditions are unknown in the north due to frozen soils.
• Snow water equivalent (SWE) is above average in nearly all basins.
• Various water issues:
  • Flooding on many major rivers in the north.
  • Snow: Much is removed, but some additional snow is coming.
  • Mountains are just reaching peak snow, and runoff is starting.
  • Eastern areas are mostly normal, but seeing some drying.
  • Delayed ice-out because of the late cold in Minnesota.
  • Winterkill issues in some lakes (low water levels going into the year, cold, ice).
• U.S. Drought Monitor: Ongoing drought issues from western Iowa/Nebraska down into Kansas/Oklahoma, with some improvements in the Northern Plains area. 43% of Kansas is in Exceptional Drought (D4).

Agricultural Impacts

Speaker: Dennis Todey, USDA Midwest Climate Hub 

• Recent cold slowed speciality crops, but at risk with pending cold.
• Alfalfa – similar concerns.
• Winter wheat is very poor.

Climate Outlooks

Speaker: Dennis Todey, USDA Midwest Climate Hub 

• ENSO status: Currently, conditions are ENSO-neutral, with increasing chances for El Niño. This reduces some drought risk into the growing season.
• Temperature and precipitation:
  • View the Climate Prediction Center's outlooks.
  • Overall, there is less confidence in the outlooks without La Niña/El Niño in play.
  • In the May–July and June–August outlooks, there is a greater likelihood of warmer and wetter conditions to the east, but this is not strong.
  • There is not much to say in the Plains. Conditions should help drought some, but this region has serious deficits to overcome.
• Drought outlook: For April 21–July 31, drought improvement or removal is projected for the Northern Plains, with drought persistence in the south (Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma).

Closing and Questions & Answers

• Access future climate webinars on Drought.gov.
• The recording from this webinar will be available at https://mrcc.illinois.edu/multimedia/webinars.jsp and https://hprcc.unl.edu/webinars.php, as well as the NIDIS YouTube channel.