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Southeast Climate Monthly Webinar: August 23, 2022

Event Date
August 23, 2022
Event Time
10:00 am - 11:00 am
Timezone
EDT
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Temperatures and precipitation were variable across the region this past month, with most of the region exhibiting slightly above=average temperatures and below-average precipitation. 

Streamflows are near normal across most of the region. Drought conditions have improved. Tropical storm activity has been minimal. La Niña is expected to continue. Looking ahead: The three-month Southeast outlooks show temperatures leaning towards warmer than normal across the region. Precipitation is leaning to drier than normal in northern Alabama, Georgia, western North Carolina, and western Virginia, and leaning toward wetter than normal in Florida and the coastal Carolinas.

Expect streamflows to continue mostly in the below normal to normal range for much of the Southeast through autumn. Below-normal streamflow will be more likely if tropical activity does not impact the Southeast. The Atlantic Hurricane Season has begun—stay prepared! Check out this month’s special presentation, “Climate, Heat, and the Southeast,” to learn about how extreme heat impacts the region and actions that are being taken.

Timestamp
0:00

Introduction and Welcome

Speaker: Chip Conrad, Southeast Regional Climate Center

  • Our special topic today is Climate, Heat, and the Southeast

 

Timestamp
1:10

Climate Conditions 

Speaker: Chip Konrad, Southeast Regional Climate Center

  • Temperature in the Past 30 Days: Temperatures were slightly above average across much of the region, with slightly below-normal values in western Georgia, southern Alabama, and in the Florida panhandle. 
  • Precipitation in the Past 30 Days: Precipitation was below average in most areas, but above average in central/western Virginia, northwest North Carolina, southern Alabama, and the Florida panhandle.
  • 2022 Hurricane Season: A lack of hurricane development will continue in the short term but is likely to pick up in the next few weeks. There is a slight chance (20%) of tropical cyclone development over the next five days for a tropical wave located over the Cabo Verde Islands.
  • Drought: Marked improvements have been observed recently in many areas due to high precipitation. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, there are just a few pockets of abnormally dry (D0) and moderate drought (D1) across the region with severe drought (D2) across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, which is expected to improve. The Climate Prediction Center's Seasonal Drought Outlook depicts that the remaining drought will be removed across the mainland southeast region, and improved in the U.S. Caribbean. The U.S. Drought Portal (Drought.gov) provides additional drought information at national and local levels. 
  • La Niña Advisory: La Niña is expected to continue, with chances for La Niña gradually decreasing from 86% in the coming season to 60% during December–February 2022–23. More details are available here. 
  • Looking Ahead, Next Week: The Climate Prediction Center's August 26–30 outlook is leaning towards warmer than normal across the region. Precipitation is leaning towards being above-normal for most of the region, except for much of Florida and Gulf Coast where near-normal conditions are expected.
  • Looking Ahead, Next Three Months: The current Climate Prediction Center three-month outlook has temperatures leaning towards warmer than normal across the region. Precipitation is leaning to drier than normal in northern Alabama, Georgia, western North Carolina, and western Virginia, and leaning toward wetter than normal in Florida and the coastal Carolinas.

 

Timestamp
15:07

Water Resources: Autumn Flood Outlook 

Speaker: Jeff Dobur, Southeast River Forecast Center, National Weather Service

  • The 28-day U.S. Geological Survey streamflows are near normal across most of the Southeast except for some parts of the Carolinas and Florida Peninsula where streamflow is below normal. Streamflows typically fall off this time of year with the exception being the Florida peninsula.
  • Looking Ahead: Expect streamflows to continue mostly in the below normal to normal range for much of the Southeast through autumn. Below normal streamflow will be more likely if tropical activity does not impact the Southeast. Flooding will be typical, which means a low chance for the interior Southeast river systems and an increased risk across the Florida peninsula with the risk of tropical systems, especially in September.
  • Additional information can be found here. 

 

Timestamp
26:43

Agriculture Impact and Outlook

Speaker: Pam Knox, University of Georgia 

  • Nearly all of the drought is gone in the region due to the continuation of the wetter weather pattern. Rain and high humidity have greatly increased the incidence of fungal diseases and moldy grain.
  • Looking Ahead: The next few weeks will likely see continued warm conditions. The continuation of rainier conditions with few dry days in the next two weeks in most areas will increase the chance of boll rot and other diseases on crops.
  • Additional information on reporting impacts is found here. Sign up for the Climate and Agriculture in the Southeast: Blog.

 

Timestamp
34:38

Climate, Heat, and the Southeast

Speaker: Morgan Zabow, Climate and Health Communication and Outreach Coordinator, NOAA Climate Program Office

  • Extreme heat kills more Americans each year than any other weather-related event.
  • Extreme heat made headlines across the country this summer, especially in the Southeast. Many states across the country broke temperature records and experienced multi-day heat waves, with some facing compounding impacts such as drought, wildfires, and flooding.
  • This summer was no exception to extreme heat—on July 20, 46% of people in the U.S. were under an active heat advisory, watch, or warning.
  • Some counties in the Southeast are highly vulnerable to extreme heat, especially when paired with underlying social and economic vulnerabilities.
  • While everyone is at risk of extreme heat, some groups are much more vulnerable to heat-related illness than others.
  • NOAA and CDC launched the National Integrated Heat Health Information System (NIHHIS) in 2015 to develop and provide actionable, science-based information to help protect the nation from heat. 
  • Action is needed to protect vulnerable populations now and in the future, so NIHHIS and partners launched new community-led urban heat island mapping campaigns that map the hottest parts of cities.
  • Data reports from 2022 urban heat island campaigns will be released later this fall. Southeastern cities that performed heat mapping campaigns included Nashville and Knoxville, TN, Columbia, SC, and Jacksonville, FL. You can see pictures and media coverage of the campaign by visiting Heat.gov or searching #UrbanHeatMaps2022 on Twitter. 
  • On July 26, the Biden Administration—through the interagency NIHHIS—launched Heat.gov, a new website to provide the public and decision-makers with clear, timely, and science-based information to understand and reduce the health risks of extreme heat.
  • For additional information, contact Morgan Zabow.

 

Timestamp
54:58

Closing

Speaker: Meredith Muth, NOAA National Integrated Drought Information System

  • Register for the next webinar:
    • September 27, 2022, Modernizing How You Access Water Data, U.S. Geological Survey

 

About This Webinar

The Southeast Climate monthly webinar series is hosted by the Southeast Regional Climate Center, the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS), and the NOAA National Weather Service. These webinars provide the region with timely information on current and developing climate conditions such as drought, floods, and tropical storms, as well as climatic events like El Niño and La Niña. Speakers may also discuss the impacts of these conditions on topics such as agriculture production, water resources, wildfires, and ecosystems.

 

Key Partners

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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

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NWS River Forecast Centers

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Southeast Regional Climate Center

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University of Georgia

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National Integrated Heat Health Information System (NIHHIS)

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