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Southeast Climate Monthly Webinar: January 24, 2023

Event Date
January 24, 2023
Event Time
10:00 am - 12:00 pm
Timezone
EST
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Temperatures were above average over the past two months, except during an Arctic Outbreak that affected the broader region in late December. Recent rains have helped eliminate drought across the interior of the region, with some dry areas still remaining along the coastal Florida Panhandle to the Delmarva Peninsula. Streamflows are currently near normal across most of the region, as we head into the peak of recharge season in the southeast U.S. The exception is the Florida Peninsula where the dry season is in full swing.

Looking ahead: The next several weeks look to be warm and wet across much of the region. Over the next three months, temperatures are expected to be above average across the region, with below-average precipitation across Florida and equal chances of wetter or drier conditions elsewhere. While drought is currently receding, it is expected to persist in existing areas and expand across the Florida Peninsula over the next 3 months. Some flooding is expected over the next 8–10 weeks, which is a normal risk this time of year for the interior river systems. A transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral is expected over the next several months.

Check out this month’s special presentation, The Southeast U.S. – A Year in Review, which provides an excellent perspective of climate trends observed in 2022 across the region.

Timestamp
0:00

Introduction and Welcome

Speaker: Chris Fuhrmann, Southeast Regional Climate Center

  • Our special topic today is "The Southeast U.S. – A Year in Review."

 

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1:00

Climate Conditions 

Speaker: Chris Fuhrmann, Southeast Regional Climate Center

  • Temperature and Precipitation: Temperatures were above average over the past two months, except during an Arctic Outbreak that affected the region in late December. Precipitation was above average across much of the interior of the region; in contrast, precipitation deficits were observed across much of Florida (especially the Panhandle), southern Georgia, coastal sections of the Carolinas, and Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.
  • Drought: Drought was eliminated across the interior of the region but persisted from the Florida Panhandle to the Delmarva Peninsula. Abnormally dry (D0) conditions, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor, returned to parts of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Drought is expected to persist in existing areas and expand across the Florida Peninsula over the next 3 months (Drought Outlooks and Forecasts). The U.S. Drought Portal (Drought.gov) provides additional drought information at national and local levels. 
  • La Niña Advisory: A transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral is expected over the next several months, with an 82% chance of ENSO-neutral conditions by the Northern Hemisphere spring (March–May). View more ENSO information.
  • Looking Ahead: The next several weeks look to be warm and wet across much of the region; near-normal precipitation is expected across South Florida. Over the next three months, temperatures are expected to be above average across the region, with below-average precipitation across Florida and equal chances of wetter or drier conditions elsewhere. View Climate Prediction Center outlooks. 
  • Additional Information: Climate data, services, and climatologies in the Southeast region can be accessed via the Southeast Regional Climate Center.

 

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8:00

Water Resources: Winter/Spring Flood Outlook 

Speaker: Todd Hamill, Southeast River Forecast Center, National Weather Service

  • 28-day U.S. Geological Survey streamflows are near normal across most of the Southeast. The two areas showing below-normal streamflows are the eastern North Carolina/Virginia area and the north Florida/Georgia area. Streamflows typically are heading toward their highest levels for the year. March climatologically has the peak for most of the area.
  • Looking Ahead: Overall through the February–April period, the river flood risk is forecast to be near normal, which is typical for the interior Southeast river systems.  River flooding is more likely in the winter transitioning into the spring season. For the Florida Peninsula, the dry season is in full swing. Flooding is not typical across the area and so the forecast is for the normal flood risk, which is seasonally low.
  • Additional information is available through the National Weather Service.

 

Timestamp
17:55

Agriculture Impact and Outlook

Speaker: Pam Knox, University of Georgia 

  • Drought has been expanding recently in parts of Georgia and Florida, but rain this weekend should improve conditions. Frigid temperatures in late December caused many impacts on crops and forage; some damage may not be apparent for several months. Recent warmer temperatures have caused some blueberry varieties to start blooming—still very vulnerable to a later frost.
  • Looking Ahead: Most of the region still has a 90% chance of another freeze this year.
  • Additional Information:

 

Timestamp
24:10

Special Presentation: 2022 State of the Climate: The Southeast U.S. – A Year in Review

Speaker: Karin Gleason, Monitoring Section Chief, NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)

  • Temperature: 2022 was the 18th warmest year for the contiguous U.S. (CONUS), and was above average for the Southeast.
  • Precipitation: 27th driest for CONUS, and below average for the Southeast.
  • Drought: Drought peaked at 31.5% across the Southeast in November 2022.
  • Tropical Cyclones: This was a near-average season, but the least active since 2015. Hurricane Ian caused around $113 billion in damage, making it the 3rd-costliest hurricane on record for the U.S.
  • Tornadoes: 2022 was a near-average year. EF4 caused damage across Pembroke, Georgia in April.
  • Snowfall: A category 2 “significant” snowstorm impacted parts of the Southeast in January.
  • Additional Information:

 

Timestamp
36:20

Closing

Speaker: Meredith Muth, NOAA National Integrated Drought Information System

  • Register for the next webinar!
    • February 28, 2023; Learn how to explore your climate exposure in the new Climate Mapping for Resilience and Adaptation (CMRA) tool.

 

About This Webinar

The Southeast Climate monthly webinar series is hosted by the Southeast Regional Climate Center, the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS), and the NOAA National Weather Service. These webinars provide the region with timely information on current and developing climate conditions such as drought, floods, and tropical storms, as well as climatic events like El Niño and La Niña. Speakers may also discuss the impacts of these conditions on topics such as agriculture production, water resources, wildfires, and ecosystems.

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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

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NWS River Forecast Centers

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National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)

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Southeast Regional Climate Center

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University of Georgia

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