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Southeast Climate Monthly Webinar: May 23, 2023

Event Date
May 23, 2023
Event Time
10:00 am - 11:00 am
Timezone
EDT
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Despite recent cooler temperatures, many locations in the Southeast are still experiencing one of their warmest starts to the year due to higher temperatures in the first four months. Precipitation was more variable. The region is largely free of drought at this time, with the exception of the Florida Peninsula, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. A transition from ENSO-neutral is expected in the next couple of months. River streamflows are mostly in the normal range across the region, which is typical for this time of the year.

Looking Ahead: Cool and wet conditions are expected over the next two weeks, and warm weather is expected during weeks 3 and 4. Over the next three months, temperature and precipitation are expected to be above average with drought removal likely across the region. The Summer Flood Outlook (June–August) is forecasting typical river flood risk for the interior Southeast river systems. However, we need to watch for tropical activity coming up as tropical storms typically affect the Southeast in June through early July and in late August into early October.

Check out this month’s two special presentations: “Using a web-based tool to forecast local variations in wet bulb globe temperature” from Chris Fuhrmann at the Southeast Regional Climate Center, and “Improved and expanded state pages on Drought.gov” from Kelsey Satalino at NOAA’s National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS).

Timestamp
0:00

Introduction and Welcome

Speaker: Chris Fuhrmann, Southeast Regional Climate Center

  • We have two special topics today:
    • “Using a web-based tool to forecast local variations in wet bulb globe temperature” from Chris Fuhrmann at the Southeast Regional Climate Center
    • “Improved and expanded state pages on Drought.gov” from Kelsey Satalino at NOAA’s National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS).

 

Timestamp
1:15

Climate Conditions 

Speaker: Chris Fuhrmann, Southeast Regional Climate Center

  • Temperatures were below average across much of the region, except across Florida, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands, where above-average temperatures persisted; many locations are still experiencing one of their warmest starts to the year.
  • Precipitation was above average across much of the region; dryness persisted across much of the Florida Peninsula and the Caribbean; Saint Croix has observed less than half of its expected year-to-date rainfall, making it one of the driest starts to the year since 1951. 
  • Drought conditions improved across southern Alabama, eastern Tennessee, and the Florida Panhandle; moderate drought (D1) was eliminated across much of Virginia. Severe drought (D2) was upgraded to moderate drought in some areas, while extreme drought (D3) expanded across the western Florida Peninsula. Drought persisted across Puerto Rico and intensified across the U.S. Virgin Islands; extreme drought emerged on Saint Croix. 
  • A transition from ENSO-neutral is expected in the next couple of months, with a greater than 90% chance of El Niño persisting into the Northern Hemisphere winter (55% chance of a strong El Niño).
  • Over the next two weeks, cool and wet conditions are expected across much of the region; warm weather is expected during weeks 3 and 4, while wet conditions are expected across Florida and the East Coast.
  • Over the next three months, temperature and precipitation are expected to be above average with drought removal likely across the region, including Puerto Rico.
  • Additional Information: Climate data, services, and climatologies in the southeast region can be accessed at the Southeast Regional Climate Center.

 

Timestamp
8:27

Water Resources: Summer Flood Outlook 

Speaker: Jeff Dobur, Southeast River Forecast Center, National Weather Service

  • River streamflow (based on 28-day U.S. Geological Survey streamflows) are mostly near normal across most of the Southeast. This is typically a quiet time of year when it comes to river flooding for the Southeast. Streamflows typically begin to fall off as warmer temperatures and less organized precipitation become dominant. The only exception is the Florida peninsula where the wet season begins in June and the river flood season slowly ramps up into the tropical season. 
  • Summer Flood Outlook (June–August): Overall through the upcoming 3-month period, the river flood risk is forecast to be near what is typical for the interior Southeast river systems. We often have to watch for tropical activity coming up, as tropical storms typically affect the Southeast in June through early July and in late August into early October.
  • View additional information.

 

Timestamp
13:52

Agriculture Impact and Outlook

Speaker: Pam Knox, University of Georgia 

  • Frost affected only a few locations this month. Wet and cool conditions have caused problems with fungal diseases, slow fieldwork, lack of pasture green-up. March frost damage to peaches, wheat was worse than expected in some areas.
  • Looking ahead: Lower temperatures have led to slow crop development, which is not expected to improve much until well into June.
  • Additional Information:

 

Timestamp
19:15

Using a Web-Based Tool to Forecast Local Variations in Wet Bulb Globe Temperature

Speaker: Chris Fuhrmann, Southeast Regional Climate Center

  • Wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) is an increasingly used measure of heat stress (particularly in athletics) that accounts for temperature, humidity, wind speed, and radiation.
  • Regional and diurnal patterns of WBGT reflect variations in latitude, elevation, and proximity to the coast (which affects wind, humidity, cloud cover, temperature).
  • WBGT shows much local variation that relates primarily to wind speed, but also shade and cloud cover.
  • Access the web-based WBGT Forecast Tool.
  • Questions? Contact Chris Fuhrmann or Chip Konrad. 

 

Timestamp
46:30

Improved and Expanded State Pages on Drought.gov

Speaker: Kelsey Satalino, NOAA National Integrated Drought Information System, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES)

  • In April, NIDIS launched updated and expanded state pages on Drought.gov, in collaboration with NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information and state partners.
  • The new state pages provide one-stop shop for state drought information, including interactive and easily shareable maps, statistics, and resources for all 50 states, as well as Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and the U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands. 
  • Key features:
    • New interactive maps featuring key drought indicators, outlooks/forecasts, and historical information at the state level, with easy access to county-level data
    • Customization & sharing options for every map – just click the download icon in the top left corner of any map to customize the display, compare drought & climate data, and download high-quality map images.
    • Highlighted state government drought resources
    • Resources to stay up to date on local drought information
  • Explore Drought.gov state pages in the Southeast: Alabama, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia.
  • Questions or feedback? Email drought.portal@noaa.gov.

 

Timestamp
55:20

Q&A and Closing

Speaker: Chris Fuhrmann, Southeast Regional Climate Center

  • Register for the next webinars!
    • June 27, 2023: 2023 Hurricane Outlook
    • July 25, 2023: Flash Drought in the Southeast
    • Aug 22, 2023: Future water availability and streamflow characteristics in the Southeastern U.S

 

About This Webinar

The Southeast Climate monthly webinar series is hosted by the Southeast Regional Climate Center, the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS), and the NOAA National Weather Service. These webinars provide the region with timely information on current and developing climate conditions such as drought, floods, and tropical storms, as well as climatic events like El Niño and La Niña. Speakers may also discuss the impacts of these conditions on topics such as agriculture production, water resources, wildfires, and ecosystems

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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

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NWS River Forecast Centers

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Southeast Regional Climate Center

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University of Georgia

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Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES)

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