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Southeast Climate Monthly Webinar: October 25, 2022

Event Date
October 25, 2022
Event Time
10:00 am - 11:00 am
Timezone
EDT
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Temperatures were much below average over the past month, highlighted by an early season freeze/frost that resulted in over 80 daily minimum temperature records in the region from October 18–21. Precipitation was mostly below average, except in areas affected by Hurricane Ian. Ian made multiple landfalls in the Southeast at the end of September as one of the strongest and deadliest hurricanes in the state of Florida. Drought continues to expand in areas that have not received precipitation, in particular in Alabama, Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle. Streamflows are currently near normal or below normal across most of the region, except for parts of the Florida Peninsula. Frost has ended the agricultural growing season in many parts of the region.

Looking ahead: No tropical systems are expected to affect the Southeast in the near term. The next 3 months are expected to follow a typical La Niña pattern with warm and dry conditions across much of the region. There is a low chance of flooding for the interior Southeast river systems over the winter. Drought is expected to persist or develop in Alabama, Georgia, the Florida Panhandle, and the western Carolinas due to limited rainfall and warm temperatures. There is no frost forecasted for the next couple of weeks in most of the region, but it may return in early November

Check out this month’s special presentation, “Putting Recent Climate and Weather Events in Historical Context" to learn more about the Climate Perspectives Tool.

Timestamp
0:00

Introduction and Welcome

Speaker: Chris Fuhrmann, Southeast Regional Climate Center

  • Our special topic today is “Putting Recent Climate and Weather Events in Historical Context."

 

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1:05

Climate Conditions 

Speaker: Chris Fuhrmann, Southeast Regional Climate Center

  • Temperature and Precipitation: Temperatures were much below average over the past 30 days, except across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands (where temperatures were near average). Precipitation was mostly below average, except in places affected by Hurricane Ian; precipitation was variable across Puerto Rico and the USVI.
  • Hurricane Ian: Hurricane Ian made multiple landfalls in the Southeast near the end of September; it is one of the strongest hurricanes to make landfall in the U.S. and is the deadliest hurricane in the state of Florida in nearly 100 years; current damage estimates are  around $50 billion.
  • 2022 Hurricane Season: The 2022 hurricane season is running slightly behind schedule in terms of named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes; the basin-wide ACE index is running about 75% of normal for the season. Monitor the National Hurricane Center for updated conditions and advisories.
  • Drought: According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, over 40% of the region is classified as at least abnormally dry (D0); moderate drought (D1) has developed across northern Alabama, Georgia, western North Carolina, and northwestern Florida; severe drought (D2) has emerged in Alabama and Georgia; Puerto Rico remains drought-free; D0 persists across parts of the USVI. According to the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Seasonal Drought Outlook, drought is expected to persist or develop in Alabama, Georgia, the Florida Panhandle, and the western Carolinas. The U.S. Drought Portal (Drought.gov) provides additional drought information at national and local levels. 
  • La Niña Advisory: La Niña returns for the third consecutive winter with a 75% chance of La Niña conditions this winter (December–February) and a 54% chance of neutral conditions in February–April . More details can be found here. 
  • Looking Ahead, Next Week: The CPC October 30–November 3 outlook favors warmer-than-normal conditions across the region, and favors above-normal precipitation for most of the region except for the Florida Peninsula, where near-normal conditions are expected.
  • Looking Ahead, Next Three Months: NOAA’s Winter Outlook favors warm and dry conditions across the Southeast; current drought areas are likely to persist with new development across Alabama, Georgia, and northeast Florida.
  • Additional Information: Climate data, services, and climatologies in the Southeast region can be accessed through the Southeast Regional Climate Center. Access NOAA outlook products.

 

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10:35

Water Resources: Autumn Flood Outlook 

Speaker: Jeff Dobur, Southeast River Forecast Center, National Weather Service

  • 28-day U.S. Geological Survey streamflows are near normal to below normal across most of the Southeast. The exception is across parts of the Florida Peninsula where streamflows are above normal. Streamflows typically are at the lowest levels for this time of year for most of the interior Southeast.
  • Looking Ahead: Overall through the 3-month period, the river flood risk is forecast to be below what is typical for the interior Southeast river systems. There still will be some river flooding, but not as much as the typical late autumn/early winter season. For the Florida Peninsula, the dry season begins in late autumn. Flooding is not typical across the area, and so the forecast is for the normal flood risk, which is seasonally low.
  • Additional information is available through the National Weather Service.

 

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18:55

Agriculture Impact and Outlook

Speaker: Pam Knox, University of Georgia 

  • Frost has ended the growing season in many parts of the region. Lack of rain has helped the harvest move along, although there are some negative impacts to the planting of small grains and pastures. Preliminary damage estimates to Florida agriculture from Ian are up to $1.56 billion with additional evaluations still underway.
  • Looking Ahead: Drought expansion is likely to continue due to limited rainfall and warm temperatures. There is no frost in the forecast for the next couple of weeks in most of the region, but this may return in early November. Tropics are still showing some activity, but there is nothing directed at the Southeast at this time.
  • The Hurricane Preparation and Recovery Commodity Guides from the USDA Southeast Climate Hub provide tailored information and guidance by state and by commodity for many different crops/livestock. 
  • Additional information:

 

Timestamp
29:25

Special Presentation: Climate Perspectives Tool: Putting Recent Climate and Weather Events in Historical Context 

Speaker: Dr. Charles (Chip) Konrad, Director, NOAA Southeast Regional Climate Center

  • There is much interest in assessing and characterizing the frequency and magnitude of short-term climate variability and extremes, as these patterns and events have significant impacts on ecosystems and society.
  • The Southeast Regional Climate Center has developed a tool (Climate Perspectives, or CLIMPer) that allows users to assess the ongoing and recent state of the climate across many weather stations in the Southeast region, and in other regions as well.
  • Powered by the RCC’s Applied Climate Information System (ACIS), CLIMPer provides a climatological perspective on the magnitude of temperature and precipitation anomalies across many different time periods (e.g., previous day, past month, past two years)
  • It also finds the closest historical analogs to recent weather and climate events, as well as the time periods and locations they are most similar to (e.g., minimum temperatures on October 19 are most similar to those experienced in December; average temperatures in Birmingham over the past two days are most similar to those experienced in Billings, MT).
  • Climate perspectives can be generated across a range of antecedent time periods for individual weather stations (Station Perspective) and multiple weather stations (Regional Map Perspective). Streaks and thresholds of temperature and precipitation can also be calculated for individual weather stations. 
  • Visit the Climate Perspectives Website to explore this useful tool for the Southeast region and other regions as well!
  • For questions or additional information, contact Chip Konrad.

 

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46:04

Closing

Speaker: Meredith Muth, NOAA National Integrated Drought Information System

  • Register for the next webinar!
    • November 15, 2022: El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the 2022–2023 Winter Outlook, Michelle L'Heureux, National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center

 

About This Webinar

The Southeast Climate monthly webinar series is hosted by the Southeast Regional Climate Center, the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS), and the NOAA National Weather Service. These webinars provide the region with timely information on current and developing climate conditions such as drought, floods, and tropical storms, as well as climatic events like El Niño and La Niña. Speakers may also discuss the impacts of these conditions on topics such as agriculture production, water resources, wildfires, and ecosystems.

 

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