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Southeast Climate Monthly Webinar: September 27, 2022

Event Date
September 27, 2022
Event Time
10:00 am - 11:00 am
Timezone
EDT
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Temperatures and precipitation were variable across the region this past month, with most of the region exhibiting slightly above-average temperatures and below-average rainfall. Streamflows are currently near normal across most of the region. Pockets of moderate drought have returned to northeastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia. Hurricane Fiona resulted in major impacts in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Dry conditions in the last month have helped farmers with farm work and harvest.

Looking ahead: Over the next 3 months, temperatures are expected to be above average across the region; precipitation is expected to be below average across much of South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, and northern Florida, with equal chances of wetter or drier conditions in North Carolina, Virginia, and southern Florida. In the near term, Hurricane Ian will likely cause a period of higher flows and flooding across parts of the Southeast. Over the next three months, there is a low chance of flooding for the interior Southeast river systems and an increased risk across the Florida peninsula with the risk of tropical systems. La Niña is expected to continue through the winter. Drought is not expected to develop over the next few months. NOAA is still predicting an above-average Atlantic hurricane season—stay prepared!

Check out this month’s special presentation, “Modernizing How You Access Water Data," to learn about the updated NextGen Monitoring Location Pages and NextGen WaterAlerts. 

Timestamp
0:00

Introduction and Welcome

Speaker: Chris Fuhrmann, Southeast Regional Climate Center

  • Our special topic today is "Modernizing How You Access Water Data."

 

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1:08

Climate Conditions 

Speaker: Chris Fuhrmann, Southeast Regional Climate Center

  • Temperature and Precipitation: Temperatures were slightly above normal over the past 30 days, except across portions of Alabama and Georgia and parts of the southern Appalachians. Precipitation was mostly below average, except across interior portions of the region and central Florida. 
  • Severe Weather: The number of severe weather reports this year is slightly above the median frequency; 13 of the 19 U.S. lightning fatalities have been in the Southeast.
  • 2022 Hurricane Season: Hurricane Fiona resulted in major flooding, landslides, high winds, and utility outages (power, communication, water) across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands; 16 fatalities have been confirmed in Puerto Rico (as of September 27). Despite a slower than normal start to the season, NOAA is still predicting an above-average Atlantic hurricane season (60% chance) with 14–17 named storms; Hurricane Ian is expected to make landfall in Florida this week. Monitor the National Hurricane Center for updated conditions and advisories.
  • Drought: According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, over 80% of the region is free of any drought designation; moderate drought (D1) persists across southeast Florida, eastern Virginia and North Carolina, and the U.S. Virgin Islands; Fiona eliminated drought in Puerto Rico. According to the National Weather Service (NWS) Climate Prediction Center's Seasonal Drought Outlook, drought is not expected to develop over the next few months. The U.S. Drought Portal (Drought.gov) provides additional drought information at national and local levels. 
  • La Niña Advisory: La Niña is favored to continue this winter (a “triple-dip”), with a 91% chance in September–November, decreasing to a 60% chance in December–February; neutral conditions are favored by February–April. More details are available here. 
  • Looking Ahead, Next Week: The NWS October 2–6 outlook is leaning towards warmer than normal conditions across the region. Precipitation is leaning towards being above normal for most of the region, except for much of Florida and Gulf Coast where near normal conditions are expected.
  • Looking Ahead, Next Three Months: According to the current NWS three-month outlook, temperatures are expected to be above average across the region; precipitation is expected to be below average across much of South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, and northern Florida, with equal chances of wetter or drier conditions in North Carolina, Virginia, and southern Florida.
  • Additional Information: Climate data, services, and climatologies in the Southeast region can be accessed at the Southeast Regional Climate Center, including Fall Foliage Resources.

 

Timestamp
13:21

Water Resources: Autumn Flood Outlook 

Speaker: Todd Hamill, Southeast River Forecast Center, National Weather Service

  • 28-day U.S. Geological Survey streamflows are near normal across most of the Southeast. The exception is across parts of the Florida peninsula, where streamflows are above normal. Streamflows typically fall off this time of year for most of the Southeast.
  • Looking Ahead: Ian will likely cause a period of higher flows and flooding across parts of the Southeast. Overall through the 3-month period, flooding will be typical, which means a low chance for the interior Southeast river systems and an increased risk across the Florida peninsula with the risk of tropical systems.
  • Additional information can be found here. 

 

Timestamp
23:40

Agriculture Impact and Outlook

Speaker: Pam Knox, University of Georgia 

  • Dry conditions in the last month have helped farmers with farm work and harvest. Fungal diseases continue to be an issue with some crops due to earlier wet conditions.
  • Looking Ahead: Hurricane Ian will greatly affect crops in the next week; impacts depend on the exact path of the storm but could include heavy rain, high winds, and storm surge along coast. After Ian, the tropics go back to quieter conditions, but the season is not over.
  • The "Hurricane Preparation and Recovery Commodity Guides" from the USDA Southeast Climate Hub provide tailored information and guidance by state and by commodity for many different crops/livestock. 
  • Additional information on reporting impacts is found here. Sign up for the Climate and Agriculture in the Southeast: Blog.

 

Timestamp
31:15

Modernizing How You Access Water Data

Speaker: Emily Read, Randi Butler, and Nicole Felts, U.S. Geological Survey

  • Monitoring location pages are web pages that the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Water Mission Area offers to display important water data like discharge (also referred to as streamflow), gage height, precipitation, water levels, temperature, etc. Thousands of people use USGS water data each month to make decisions ranging from recreation to emergency management.
  • NextGen Monitoring Location Pages have all new features available, such as displaying two parameters at a time on one hydrograph. NextGen Legacy Current Conditions pages will be decommissioned in July 2023.
  • WaterAlert is a popular subscription service that allows users to subscribe to email or text (SMS) messages when certain parameters, as measured by a USGS monitoring location, exceed user-definable thresholds. The development and maintenance of the WaterAlert system is supported by USGS and its partners, including numerous federal, state, and local agencies. WaterAlert Legacy users can transition to NextGen NOW until September 30 using a link sent via email/text. NextGen WaterAlert is currently available for all users.
  • Additional Resources:

 

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44:55

Closing

Speaker: Meredith Muth, NOAA National Integrated Drought Information System

  • Register for the next webinar!
    • October 25, 2022: Climate Perspectives Tool (CLIMPER) – How you can compare recent weather and climate with prior time periods at a given location
    • This presentation will provide a tutorial on how you can compare recent weather and climate with prior time periods at a given location.

 

About This Webinar

The Southeast Climate monthly webinar series is hosted by the Southeast Regional Climate Center, the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS), and the NOAA National Weather Service. These webinars provide the region with timely information on current and developing climate conditions such as drought, floods, and tropical storms, as well as climatic events like El Niño and La Niña. Speakers may also discuss the impacts of these conditions on topics such as agriculture production, water resources, wildfires, and ecosystems.

 

Key Partners

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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

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NWS River Forecast Centers

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Southeast Regional Climate Center

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University of Georgia

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U.S. Geological Survey

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