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Projected Palmer Hydrological Drought Index

Associated Agencies

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) and Climate Prediction Center (CPC)

The National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) produces official monthly and seasonal temperature and precipitation outlook products. This information was converted into projected monthly temperature and precipitation values for future months, then the projected values were used to compute projected future Palmer Hydrological Drought Index (PHDI) values. Specifically, the median forecasts of the CPC 3-month seasonal temperature and precipitation outlooks were converted into seasonal anomalies for the 102 CPC forecast regions using the CPC climatologies.

How To

What can I do with these data?

  • Users can generate maps to show the projected PHDI, projected precipitation anomalies, projected temperature anomalies, and current PHDI at different monthly scales.

How do I use the site?

  • Select from options in the drop down menus and then click “Submit” 
  • You can view outlooks for 3 months, 6 months, or 9 months
  • For scenario selection, "Hot/Cold" and "Wet/Dry" represent the 10th/90th and 90th/10th percentiles of the temperature and precipitation outlook, respectively. "Normal Conditions" accounts for the 50th percentile for both elements.
Representative Image
Example Projected Palmer Hydrological Drought Index map