Downscaled subseasonal fire danger forecast skill across the contiguous United States

The increasing complexity and impacts of fire seasons in the United States have prompted efforts to improve early warning systems for wildland fire management. A NIDIS-funded study led by the University of California-Merced demonstrated that subseasonal forecasts of fire danger from an experimental forecast system have significant skill at up to 3-weeks lead time across the contiguous United States.

Using hindcasts from 2011 to 2021, results show that while forecast skill degrades with time, statistically significant week 3 correlative skill was found for 76% and 30% of the contiguous U.S. for Energy Release Component and evaporative demand, respectively. This work was supported by grants from NIDIS, USDA, and the National Science Foundation.

Read the research article in Atmospheric Science Letters, or learn more about this research.