Provides a definition of El Nino; potential winter impacts; the outlook for winter temperatures and precipitation; and a look back at previous El Nino winters.
NOAA’s Regional Climate Services Program created these Outlooks to inform the public about climate impacts within their respective regions. Each regional report contains easy-to-understand language, and anyone can access them through the Drought Portal at https://www.drought.gov/drought/resources/reports.
Current Drought Conditions
The 2019 Water Year was off to a dry start in California-Nevada. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, ~74% of California-Nevada is in moderate (D1) to extreme drought (D3) as of December 4, 2018. Extreme drought (D3) conditions began impacting Ventura-Santa Barbara counties while D1-D2 conditions expanded over the Sierras and northern coastal California. Precipitation at the end of November into early December improved some of these conditions.
Provides a definition of El Nino; the outlook for winter temperatures and precipitation; potential winter and spring impacts; and a look back at previous El Nino winters.
NOAA’s Regional Climate Services Program created these Outlooks to inform the public about climate impacts within their respective regions. Each regional report contains easy-to-understand language, and anyone can access them through the Drought Portal at https://www.drought.gov/drought/resources/reports.
Provides a definition of El Nino; the outlook for winter temperatures and precipitation; potential winter and spring impacts; and a look back at previous El Nino winters.
NOAA’s Regional Climate Services Program created these Outlooks to inform the public about climate impacts within their respective regions. Each regional report contains easy-to-understand language, and anyone can access them through the Drought Portal at https://www.drought.gov/drought/resources/reports.
Southern Plains Under El Niño Watch
- In Oklahoma and Texas, drought peaked in early May. Only a few small areas in the Texas Panhandle and northeast Oklahoma still show Abnormally Dry Conditions.
- Major concerns continue for streamflows and reservoir levels in New Mexico. Another snow drought could cause devastating impacts to the state.
- There is a 70% to 75% chance that El Niño will develop and persist through the winter; however, it is expected to be weak.
CURRENT CONDITIONS
Rainfall Brings Much-Needed Drought Relief to Missouri, Kansas, and Iowa
- Recent rainfall has brought much-needed relief to the hardest-hit drought areas in MO, KS, and IA, however, at the same time, drought conditions worsened in ND.
- Although rainfall has improved conditions, drought recovery may be slow in areas that experienced extreme or exceptional drought this summer - particularly where surface water and groundwater was limited.
- Winter is typically the driest season, making autumn a key season for recovery from hydrologic drought.
Current Drought Conditions
Over the course of the 2018 Water Year (Oct. 2017 - Sept. 2018), drought crept back into California-Nevada. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, drought conditions have not changed over the last 2 months except for expansion of severe drought (D3) at the Oregon and Utah borders. As of Sept. 25, ~48% of California-Nevada was in moderate to extreme drought and ~43% was abnormally dry. Current forecasts show most drought areas persisting into the early winter with above-normal temperatures likely.
Conditions Favor El Niño this Winter: Significant drought expected to lessen in parts of the Southwest and persist in others.
From October 2017 to September 2018, the Southwestern U.S. experienced below-normal to record-low precipitation.
Long-term precipitation deficits and record-high temperatures have contributed to very low streamflows and reservoir levels.
Conditions favor the development of El Niño this winter, but significant drought is expected to persist in most of Utah and Colorado.
WATER YEAR (OCTOBER 2017-SEPTEMBER 2018)
Provides a definition of El Nino; the outlook for winter temperatures and precipitation; potential winter impacts; and a look back at previous El Nino winters.
NOAA’s Regional Climate Services Program created these Outlooks to inform the public about climate impacts within their respective regions. Each regional report contains easy-to-understand language, and anyone can access them through the Drought Portal at https://www.drought.gov/drought/resources/reports.
Provides a definition of El Nino; the outlook for winter temperatures and precipitation; potential winter and spring impacts; and a look back at previous El Nino winters.
NOAA’s Regional Climate Services Program created these Outlooks to inform the public about climate impacts within their respective regions. Each regional report contains easy-to-understand language, and anyone can access them through the Drought Portal at https://www.drought.gov/drought/resources/reports.