Minimal changes in drought conditions for New England but some improvement in New York.
For more details, see the Northeast Drought Early Warning System Dashboard.
- Extreme Drought (D3) remained limited to southern Maine and southeast New Hampshire.
- Severe Drought (D2) remained in coastal Maine, southeast New Hampshire, southeast Massachusetts, and southeast Rhode Island.
- Severe drought (D2) conditions improved in northern New York; remaining only in western New York this week.
- Moderate Drought (D1) and Abnormally Dry (D0) areas saw little change.
- As winter approaches, there are concerns that the ground will freeze before the groundwater can recharge. Recharge before freezing could ease concerns about starting the spring season with a deficit.
U.S. Drought Monitor Conditions: Northeast |
U.S. Drought Monitor map of the Northeast. Valid November 17, 2020.
La Niña and Potential Influences on the Northeast
A La Nina Advisory is in effect from the NWS Climate Prediction Center
From the 19 November 2020 U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook:
“...the La Niña response tends to shift the favored winter storm track towards the Ohio Valley through interior New England, favoring continued droughtimprovements for Illinois, Indiana, and the Northeast.”
October 2020 Northeast Region Winter Climate Patterns and Outlook
State Reported Impacts
Maine
Dry well reports are slowing down but still coming into the state. Report total to date - 278.
New Hampshire
New Hampshire Geological Survey performed a mid-month measurement of the 12 wells in its monitoring network that are located in the section of the state experiencing “extreme drought” (D3). Comparison of measurements from the end of October to last Thursday (12 November 2020) indicated that while well levels remained below normal, levels had not further deteriorated and had risen in a few instances.
Accumulated Precipitation Departure From Normal (includes precipitation for Nov. 5)
- October rainfall had reversed the downward trend of precipitation departure from normal, but the dry trend resumed in November.
Outlooks
- The 8-14 day maps indicate above-normal temperatures for the Northeast. Above-normal precipitation is predicted for Connecticut, Rhode Island, almost all of Massachusetts, and southern parts of Maine, New Hampshire, and New York. Below-normal precipitation is favored for western New York. Normal precipitation is favored for the rest of the region.
- The 3-4 week outlook favors above-normal temperatures and equal chances for above- or below-normal precipitation for the Northeast.
Temperature Outlook 8-14 Day
Precipitation Outlook 8-14 Day
Temperature Outlook Week 3-4
Precipitation Outlook Week 3-4
Current CPC Outlooks: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
Additional Resources
- Northeast DEWS Dashboard
- NOAA Regional Climate Services
- Your local National Weather Service office
- NOAA Regional Climate Services Monthly Webinar Series (December 17 next webinar)
- USDA Northeast Climate Hub
- USGS/New England and New York Water Science Centers
Contacts for More Information
Sylvia Reeves
Regional Drought Information Coordinator (Northeast DEWS)
NOAA/CIRES/National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS)
Email: sylvia.reeves@noaa.gov
Ellen L. Mecray
Regional Climate Services Director, Eastern Region
NOAA/NESDIS/National Centers for Environmental Information
Email: Ellen.L.Mecray@noaa.gov
Prepared By
Sylvia Reeves
NOAA/National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS)
Samantha Borisoff, Jessica Spaccio, Keith Eggleston, Art DeGaetano
Northeast Regional Climate Center
Ellen Mecray
Regional Climate Services Director, Eastern Region, NOAA
David Hollinger and Maria Janowiak
USDA Climate Hubs
Gardner Bent
USGS/New England Water Science Center
In partnership with National Weather Service Offices of the Northeast and State Climate Offices of the Northeast.
This Drought Early Warning Update is issued in partnership between the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), U.S. Geological Survey, and the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) to communicate concern for drought expansion and intensification within the Northeast U.S. based on recent conditions and the forecasts and outlooks. NIDIS and its partners will issue future Drought Early Warning Updates as conditions evolve.
