Current Drought Conditions for California/Nevada

• Much of California and Nevada received 70%–130% of normal precipitation in Water Year 2024 (October 1, 2023–September 30, 2024) (Figure 1). 
• More atmospheric rivers made landfall along the California coast between late January and March than October–December, which helped mitigate a dry start to the water year. Read more from the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E) (Figure 3).  
• California and Nevada average daily summer (June–August) temperatures were 3–7°F warmer than normal (Figure 4). This region recorded its second warmest daily minimum temperature during summer months in a record going back 125 years. 
• April 1 median snow water equivalent (SWE) was above normal this year (Figure 5).
• Evaporative demand peaked during summer months throughout the region, largely due to high temperatures. California set a record for the highest statewide evaporative demand in July (with a record dating back to 1979) (Figure 6). 
• Drought and dry conditions expanded throughout California and Nevada during the summer months, indicating the impact of the high evaporative demand on the region. 

Figure 1: Percent of Normal Water Year Precipitation (October 1, 2023–September 30, 2024)

Key Takeaway: Much of California-Nevada received near-normal precipitation in Water Year 2024 (within about 30% of normal), with the exception of the southeast portion of the California-Nevada region and portions of coastal southern California .

Figure 2: How Many Normal Water Years Would It Take to Make Up Water Year 2024 Precipitation Deficits? 

Key Takeaway: Much of the Sierra Nevada and Nevada are missing between 0%–25% of a normal water year’s worth of  precipitation. The southeastern portion of the region is missing between 25%–50% in part due to low summer monsoon activity. 

Figure 3: U.S. West Coast Atmospheric River Landfall Map for Water Year 2024 

Key Takeaway: California was impacted by a total of 54 atmospheric rivers (ARs) during Water Year 2024, though only 2 were strong or greater. 

Figure 4: Temperature Anomalies for Water Year 2024 and June–August 2024

Key Takeaway: Water Year 2024 temperatures were normal to slightly above normal (1–3°F) for much of California and Nevada. Summer temperatures were well above normal (3–7°F) throughout much of the region. The exception during both periods is coastal California. 

Figure 5: April 1 Snow Conditions in the California–/Nevada Region 

Key Takeaway: On April 1, snowpack throughout much of the Sierra Nevada Mountains was above normal, with about 125% to more than 150% of above-normal snowpack in much of northern and central Nevada. 

Figure 6: Summer Evaporative Demand

Key Takeaway: Summer evaporative demand reached record highs in California, especially during July, drying out the landscape. 

California-Nevada Drought Impacts

• The state of Nevada total reservoir storage is 60% of capacity and 182% the median (Figure 7). 
• Reservoir storage in the Western Sierra Nevada is about 135% of normal (Figure 8). California reservoir levels are primarily above historical averages. 
• Upper Colorado River Basin precipitation and snowpack conditions are near normal. Lake Powell and Lake Mead storage levels are similar to last year, with Powell 39% full and Mead 33% full.
• Nevada had 826 fires as of October 14, 2024 —218 more fires than the 2012–2023 mean, but with 265,000 fewer acres burned than the mean. 
• California had 170 more fires than the 5-year mean, but 272,000 fewer acres burned than the mean.

Figure 7: Reservoir Storage in Nevada

Key Takeaway: Nevada’s end of water year total reservoir storage capacity is 182% of the median.

Figure 8: Water Stored in Western Sierra Reservoirs Plus Snowpack

Key Takeaway: As of the end of September 2024, the Western Sierra reservoir storage was about 135% above normal. 

Outlooks and Forecasts for California-Nevada

• The Climate Prediction Center’s seasonal outlooks (November–January) show equal chances of above-, near-, or below-normal precipitation for most of the region (Figure 9).
• The seasonal outlooks show 33%–50% chance of above-normal temperatures over much of California and Nevada from November–January, except for northern California, which has equal chances of above-, near-, or below-normal temperatures (Figure 10). 
• Existing drought is forecast to persist over the next month and beyond.
• Above-normal significant wildland fire potential is expected to persist along the southern California coast through December. 
• The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently neutral. A La Niña watch is in place.
  • If La Niña emerges, it is likely to be a weaker event. 
  • Historically, La Niña winters tend to be warmer and drier in southern California-Nevada. However, every ENSO event is different and weather events, such as atmospheric rivers, can disrupt the traditional seasonal ENSO precipitation patterns.    
  • For more information, check out the NOAA ENSO blog. 

Figure 9: Seasonal (3-Month) Precipitation Outlook

Key Takeaway: The NOAA National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center’s seasonal outlook favors equal chances of above-, below-, and near-normal precipitation for most of the region through the end of January 2025.

Figure 10: Seasonal (3-Month) Temperature Outlook

Key Takeaway: The NOAA National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center’s seasonal outlook favors above-normal temperatures for much of California-Nevada through January.

Resources

Explore regional and state drought information:

California

Nevada

California-Nevada DEWS

Register for the December 2 California-Nevada Drought and Climate Outlook Webinar, which will provide an overview of climate and drought conditions, impacts, and outlooks.

Prepared By

Amanda Sheffield
NOAA/NIDIS California-Nevada DEWS Regional Drought Information Coordinator, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES)

Julie Kalansky
Principal Investigator California-Nevada Adaptation Program (a NOAA CAP team)