This update is based on data available as of Thursday, February 13, 2025 at 7:00 a.m. PT. We acknowledge that conditions are evolving.

Current Drought Conditions for California/Nevada

• This past January was the 9th driest in California and 10th driest in Nevada since 1895.
• Although California experienced two significant storms since the beginning of February, drought expanded and intensified throughout the region over the last month. Drought depictions to this point have been led by short-term drought impacts (i.e., impacts that typically occur in less than 6 months, such as impacts to agriculture and grasslands), but this week’s U.S. Drought Monitor indicates a shift to both short- and long-term drought impacts (i.e., greater than 6 months, such as impacts to hydrology and ecology).
• The northern part of California and Nevada continue to track well-above normal precipitation, while the central and southern portions of the region received well-below-normal precipitation for the water year (Figure 1). Parts of southern Nevada are experiencing the driest start to the water year in a 44-year record. This is a stark contrast to northeastern California and northwestern Nevada, which are experiencing the wettest start to the water year in record (Figure 2).
• The landfalling atmospheric river currently impacting central and southern California has brought nearly 2% of water year precipitation to the Los Angeles and San Diego region as of the morning of Thursday, February 13. It is forecast to reach inland, bringing additional precipitation to central and southern Nevada.
• Current snow water equivalent (SWE, Figure 3) status exhibits a similar contrast between the north and south. This month’s western snow drought status update reported below normal snowpack in most of the Sierra Nevada, also observed by California Department of Water Resources Snow Survey. Snowpack in the mountains of southern Nevada fell to below normal SWE due to an exceptionally dry January. Very little snow fell in the Spring Mountains in southern Nevada.
• Drought has not yet significantly impacted water supplies in California and Nevada. Major California water supply reservoirs are near or above their historical averages and reservoirs plus snowpack total is near normal for this time of year (Figure 4). However, in Nevada, reservoir storage remains at lower capacity compared to last year (see the Natural Resources Conservation Service).
• Upper Colorado River Basin precipitation and snowpack conditions are below normal. Lake Powell and Lake Mead levels are above what they were at this time last year, with Powell 35% full and Mead 34% full.

Figure 1: Water Year Precipitation Is Below Normal in Central and Southern California–Nevada

Figure 2: Early 2025 Continues Extreme Dry and Wet Divide to the Region

Figure 3: Stark North–South Difference in California and Nevada Snowpack

Figure 4: Water Storage Near Normal in Western Sierra Reservoirs and Snowpack 

Outlooks and Forecasts for California-Nevada

• A La Niña Advisory is in place.
• La Niña conditions—which historically increase chances of normal to dry winters in southern California and Nevada—are expected to persist in the near-term (February to April 2025), with a transition to ENSO-neutral likely during March–May 2025 (66% chance).
• This week a second, stronger atmospheric river is forecast to bring heavy rain and mountain snow to much of California late Wednesday (February 12) through Friday (February 14). Storm-total precipitation amounts of 5–10 inches are possible in the Sierra Nevada, Central California Coast Ranges, and Southern California Transverse Ranges.
• NOAA’s National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center forecasts drier and warmer conditions for the latter half of February (Figure 5, 6). The weeks 3-4 outlook (February 22–March 7) and the seasonal outlook (February–April) continue to depict a similar pattern to previous months, favoring wetter/cooler conditions in the northern part of the region and warmer/drier conditions in the southern part of the region. A large portion of the region has equal chances of above-, below-, or near-normal conditions.
• Atmospheric river activity over California and Nevada is forecast to decrease over the next 2 weeks (Figure 7).
• Fire potential remains above normal for the southern coast of California from February through Spring.
• As of January 31, existing drought conditions are forecast to primarily persist over the next one to three months.
• Short- and long-term droughts differ in the timescales over which they occur, their impacts, and their monitoring. During this period of drought development and intensification, short-term drought impacts (e.g., impacts to rain-fed agriculture, wildfire risk, surface water reductions) will likely begin and intensify as drought conditions worsen.

Figure 5: 8–14 Day Outlook Favors Below-Normal Precipitation

Figure 6: 8-14 Day Outlook Favors Above-Normal Temperatures

Figure 7: Atmospheric River Activity Likely to Decrease Over Drought Areas Over Next 2 Weeks

Resources

• Explore regional and state drought information:
  • California
  • Nevada
  • California-Nevada DEWS
• NIDIS and partners are piloting a series of Southern California Sector-Specific Drought Early Warning Outlooks in Water Year 2025. Learn more and get involved by contacting Amanda Sheffield (amanda.sheffield@noaa.gov). 

• Register for the March 24 California-Nevada Drought and Climate Outlook Webinar, which will provide an overview of climate and drought conditions, impacts, and outlooks.

• Read the latest Western Regional Snow Drought Status Update. 

• Check local National Weather Service Drought Information Statements. These statements provide up-to-date reports on the current drought situation for regional Weather Forecast Offices' county warning and forecast area. 

   

Prepared By

Amanda Sheffield
NOAA/NIDIS California-Nevada DEWS Regional Drought Information Coordinator, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES)

Julie Kalansky
Principal Investigator California-Nevada Adaptation Program (a NOAA CAP team)