Drought intensifies across Oklahoma. Late September rain brings little relief.

Key Points

Drought continued to expand across Oklahoma, with the amount of the state in drought and in Severe Drought (D2) expanding significantly since early summer.
In September, Extreme Drought (D3) developed over southwest Oklahoma and parts of adjacent northwest Texas. Showers in late September did little to improve drought conditions.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center’s outlook predicts increased chances for warmer and drier than normal through the end of the year.
A warmer- and drier-than-average winter (December–February) is expected for Texas and Oklahoma.

U.S. Drought Monitor Current Conditions and Time Series

Current Map Historical Time Series

The U.S. Drought Monitor depicts the location and intensity of drought across the country. The map uses 5 classifications: Abnormally Dry (D0), showing areas that may be going into or are coming out of drought, and four levels of drought (D1–D4).

Key Takeaway: Moderate to Extreme Drought (D1–D3) persists over western Oklahoma, and Texas, with continued Extreme to Exceptional Drought (D3–D4) over Far West Texas.

Source(s): NOAA, USDA, NDMC

The U.S. Drought Monitor depicts the location and intensity of drought across the country.

This historical time series shows the progression of drought and dryness across Kansas, Texas, and Oklahoma from 2000 to the present, as a percent of total land area.

Source(s): NOAA, USDA, NDMC

U.S. Drought Monitor Categories

30.6

22.7

11.3

4.6

1.05

39.65

U.S. Drought Monitor

Data valid: 09/24/24

Data Valid: 09/24/24

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17%

of the Southern Plains region is in Severe Drought (D2) or worse

~9.6 million

people in areas of drought in Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas

279

weeks drought has been present somewhere in the Southern Plains DEWS

Current Conditions for the Southern Plains

Wrapping up a very hot summer (June, July, August) for the Southern Plains:
- Texas:
  - Texas tied its 6th warmest summer on record (since 1895), with mean daily temperatures 2.0ºF above the 1991–2020 average.
  - State-averaged minimum temperatures for Texas ranked 4th warmest for June through August. This included a tie for the warmest June minimums on record, a near-normal July, and a tie for the 3rd warmest August.
  - In Texas, state-averaged mean daily maximum temperatures were much above average for summer, but not near a new record for the state.
- Oklahoma:
  - Summer temperatures were generally above average for Oklahoma, but not near a new record for the state. State-averaged minimum temperatures were 1.5°F above average, and maximum temperatures were 1.9°F above average.
- Kansas:
  - Summer temperatures were generally above average for Kansas, but not near a new record for the state. State-averaged minimum temperatures were 0.7°F above average, and maximum temperatures were 1.0°F above average.
Warm and dry conditions continued through September.

Short-Term Drought vs. Long-Term Drought in Western Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle

Key Takeaway: For western Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle, short-term drought indicators (less than 6 months) show large swings down and up over the summer months. Long-term drought indicators (longer than 6 months) show a steady decline. This can be seen in the time series of the Multi-Indicator Drought Index. The time series displays the changes in the short-term drought indicator blend and the long-term drought indicator blend since May 1, 2024. The maps show a snapshot of both time periods from September 16, 2024. Note that the long-term drought is more severe in southwest Oklahoma than in other parts of the region.

A time series of the Time series of short-term and long-term Multi-Indicator Drought Index (MIDI) for western Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. The short-term index shows some ups and downs, notably a high point in early July and a low point in late August. The long-term drought index shows a steady decline over the summer. — Time series of short-term and long-term Multi-Indicator Drought Index (MIDI) for western Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. The blue line represents a short-term MIDI (less than 6 months), and the red line represents a long-term MIDI. Values below -0.5 indicate an equivalent of Abnormally Dry conditions (D0), and values below -0.7 indicate an equivalent of Moderate Drought (D1). Source: UC Merced, **ClimateEngine.org**.

Long-term and short-term indicators show drought conditions in Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. long-term drought is more severe in southwest Oklahoma than in other parts of the region. — **Short-term (****left) and long-term (****right) Multi-Indicator Drought Index (MIDI) as of September 16, 2024, showing drought (****yellow to orange) and wet (****green to blue) conditions. This map** looks at current drought conditions across the U.S. by integrating several key drought indices on precipitation and moisture into one objective, computer-generated map. **Source: UC Merced. Map from** **Drought.gov**.

2-Month U.S. Drought Monitor Change Map (Since July 30, 2024)

Key Takeaway: Over the 8 weeks from July 30 to September 24, drought conditions worsened along a wide swath on both sides of the Red River in Texas and Oklahoma. Parts of Kansas saw some moderate improvement, while northern Kansas saw some new drought development. Far West Texas continued to be in drought with some intensification of drought over the past 8 weeks.

Over the last 8 weeks, drought conditions have improved for eastern Texas. Southwest Oklahoma and parts of northern Texas have seen new drought develop or worsen, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. — **8-week U.S. Drought Monitor change map, showing where drought improved (****green), was unchanged (****gray), or worsened (****yellow to orange) from July 30–September 24, 2024. Source:** **National Drought Mitigation Center**.

September 21–23 Rainfall's Impact on 30-Day Percent of Normal Precipitation

Key Takeaway: Oklahoma was extremely dry for most of September. From September 21–23, 2024, a cold front brought much-needed rain to the region, ranging from 1 to 4 inches for western Oklahoma. Even with this rain, most of Oklahoma still has a precipitation deficit for the month. The highest totals were in McLain and Cleveland counties, Oklahoma, where the 2-day total exceeded 4 inches and brought the 3-day precipitation total back to near-average for this time of year.

ver the 30 days to September 20, 2024, precipitation was less than 50% of normal in most of Oklahoma except for the Panhandle and the far southeast tip of the state. Eastern Kansas and parts of eastern Texas also saw below-average rainfall. Heavy rainfall September 21-23 reduced but did not eliminate precipitation deficits. — Animation showing 30-day percent of normal precipitation for August 21–September 20, 2024 and for August 24–September 23, 2024, compared to historical conditions from 1991–2020. The difference between the two maps shows the impact of the heavy rains from September 21–23, but deficits still remain. Brown hues indicate below-normal precipitation, and blue hues indicate above-normal precipitation. Source: **UC Merced, GridMET. Map from** **Drought.gov**.

he 2-day precipitation total for the Southern Plains from September 21 through 23, 2024. Most of western Oklahoma got over half an inch of rain, while a few places got more than two inches over the two days. The highest totals were in McLain and Cleveland counties, Oklahoma, where the 2-day total exceeded 4 inches and brought the 3-day precipitation back to near-average for this time of year. — **Precipitation totals for 2-day period from September 21 through 23. Yellow and orange hues indicate 2+ inches of rainfall during this period. Source: NOAA** **National Water Prediction Service.**

Departure from Normal Maximum Temperature: Last 7 Days and 30 Days

Key Takeaway: Late August and early September were warm compared to the long-term average across eastern Texas. This was partially driven by a very warm week from September 13–20 when temperatures across Kansas, Oklahoma, and most of northern Texas were more than 6°F above the 1991–2020 average.

Over the 7-day period to September 23, temperatures were more than 6°F above normal across all of Kansas, Oklahoma, and western and northern Texas. Over the 30-day period to September 23, temperatures were more than 4°F above normal, on average, for the Panhandles regions of Texas and Oklahoma and southwestern Kansas. Temperatures were near to below normal across much of the rest of Texas. — **Departure from average maximum daily temperature for the 7 days (****top) and 30 days (****bottom) leading to September 23, 2024, compared to the historical average (1991–2020) for the same period. Negative values (****blue) indicate cooler-than-normal temperatures, and positive values (****red) indicate warmer-than-normal temperatures. Source: UC Merced, GridMET. Map from** **Drought.gov**.

Southern Plains Drought Impacts

The Kansas corn harvest is smaller than expected due to ongoing drought. Many farmers did not plant soybeans this year due to low spring precipitation.
Kansas corn producers experienced not just low rainfall, but high temperatures are also impacting corn harvest in Kansas.
Wichita, Kansas, extended stage 2 of water restrictions due to drought through September. The city warned of stage 3 water restrictions if Cheney Reservoir levels continue to fall.
Some areas of Oklahoma are 6–8 inches below their normal rainfall amounts for the last 90 days.
Drought improved in the Texas Hill Country.
No cotton irrigation from Lake Altus-Lugert was allowed for the third consecutive year due to low reservoir levels (source: Farm Credit of Western Oklahoma).
Oklahoma led the region on September 22 with statewide topsoil moisture rated 57% very short to short, followed by Texas at 49%. Meanwhile, one-half (50%) of the rangeland and pastures were rated in very poor to poor condition in Texas. Texas also led the U.S. with 48% of its cotton rated in very poor to poor condition on that date, well above the national value of 33%.

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28-Day Average Streamflow Conditions (Valid September 23, 2024)

Key Takeaway: Meteorological drought across Oklahoma and central Kansas, which has lasted over a year, reduced streamflow and led to hydrologic drought conditions, with the most severe conditions in central Oklahoma.

28-day average streamflow, as of September 23rd, 2024, is below or much below normal across portions of central Kansas and western Texas. — 28-day average streamflow conditions for U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamgages across the Southern Plains, compared to historical conditions. Valid September 23, 2024. Orange and red colors indicate below-normal streamflows, green indicates normal streamflows, and blue and black colors indicate above-normal streamflows. Source: **USGS WaterWatch. Map from** **Drought.gov**.

Texas Reservoir Levels

Key Takeaway: Reservoir levels in eastern Texas showed continued improvement, while reservoir levels in central and southern Texas remained low. A few notable reservoirs in drought status as of September 26 are:

Elephant Butte, New Mexico, Rio Grande: 6.1% full
Falcon Reservoir, Rio Grande: 14.0% full
Amistad Reservoir, Rio Grande: 27.1% full (lowest ever for this time of year)
Medina Lake, Medina River: 3.1% full (lowest ever for this time of year)
Twin Buttes Reservoir, Middle and South Concho Rivers: 9.8% full
Choke Canyon Reservoir, 19.2% full (all-time lowest)
Canyon Lake, 55.1% full (lowest ever for this time of year)

A map of Texas showing the percent full of each substantial reservoir in Texas. Reservoirs in eastern Texas are 70%-100% full, while reservoirs in central and west Texas are below 50% full. — **Surface water storage for Texas, showing conservation capacity (size of dot) and percent full (color) for monitored water supply reservoirs. Data valid as of September 26, 2024. Source:** **Texas Water Development** **Board**.

Oklahoma Reservoir Levels

Key Takeaway: Most reservoirs in northeastern Oklahoma are generally near-normal for this time of year, while most reservoirs in the far southwestern part of the state are less than 80% of normal. Lake Altus-Lugert is 17 feet below normal pool elevation and less than 50% of normal pool storage.

A map of Oklahoma showing the percent of normal pool storage for each substantial reservoir in Oklahoma. Most reservoirs in eastern northeast Oklahoma are greater than 90% full, while reservoirs in southwest Oklahoma are less than 80% of normal. — **Surface water storage for Oklahoma as of September 23, 2024. Source:** **Oklahoma Water Resources Board**.

Outlooks and Potential Impacts for the Southern Plains

The Southern Plains usually receives less precipitation in autumn and winter than it does in the summer months.
- When averaged across the region, this usually works out to be a bit more than 7 inches over these three months.
- The highest October to December averages are along the Gulf Coast east of Houston (greater than 16 inches), with the lowest averages (less than 2 inches) in western Texas near El Paso and Big Bend National Park.
The NOAA Climate Prediction Center’s latest monthly and seasonal climate outlooks show increased probabilities for a hotter and drier end to 2024 when compared to normal.
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently neutral. A La Niña watch is in place.
- ENSO-neutral means neither El Niño nor La Niña is driving current weather patterns.
- A La Niña pattern is likely to develop in September–November (71% chance) and will likely last through January–March 2025. The odds of a La Niña have decreased over the past months.
- La Niña usually, but not always, leads to a warmer and drier winter for Texas and Oklahoma with a weaker influence in Kansas.

October 2024 Temperature Outlook

Key Takeaway: Odds slightly favor above-normal temperatures for most of southern and eastern Texas for October, with near equal odds of above-, near-, or below-normal temperatures for most of Oklahoma and Kansas.

Map of the Southern Plains showing temperature probabilities for October. Odds favor above-normal temperatures (33%-50% probabilities) across southern and western Texas with near equal odds elsewhere.. — **This map shows the probability (percent chance) of above-normal (****red hues), near-normal (****gray hues), or below-normal (****blue hues) temperatures in October 2024. Valid September 19, 2024. White areas indicate equal chances of above-, near-, or below-normal temperatures. Source:** **NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. Map from** **Drought.gov**.

Seasonal (3-Month) Temperature Outlook: October–December 2024

Key Takeaway: The last three months of this year are likely to be warmer than normal. The highest odds for October–December are for Far West Texas where there is a 60%–70% chance of above-normal temperatures. The odds decline toward the northeast such that most of eastern Kansas has only a 33%–40% chance of exceeding normal temperatures for the season.

For October–December 2024, odds favor above-normal temperatures (33%-70% probabilities) across the Southern Plains. — **This map shows the probability (percent chance) of above-normal (****red hues), near-normal (****gray hues), or below-normal (****blue hues) temperatures for October–December 2024. Valid September 19, 2024. Source:** **NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. Map from** **Drought.gov**.

October 2024 Precipitation Outlook

Key Takeaway: In October, the outlooks slightly favor (33%–50% chance) below-normal precipitation for Kansas, Oklahoma, and northwestern Texas. There are equal chances for above-, near-, or below-normal precipitation for the Gulf Coast region.

: For October, odds slightly favor below-normal precipitation (33%-50% probabilities) across Kansas, Oklahoma and northern and western Texas. — **This map shows the probability (percent chance) of above-normal (****green hues), near-normal (****gray hues), or below-normal (****brown hues) precipitation in October 2024. Valid September 19, 2024. White areas indicate equal chances of above-, near-, or below-normal precipitation. Source:** **NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. Map from** **Drought.gov**.

Seasonal (3-Month) Precipitation Outlook: October–December 2024

Key Takeaway: The latest seasonal precipitation outlook for October–December slightly favors lower-than-normal precipitation for Kansas and northeast Oklahoma, with odds increasing to 40%–50% for the panhandle regions, southwest Oklahoma, and eastern Texas. Odds for a dry end to the year increase to 50%–60% for western Texas.

Map of the Southern Plains showing precipitation probabilities For October through December 2024. Odds favor below-normal precipitation for Kansas and northeast Oklahoma with odds increasing to 40%-50% for the panhandle regions, southwest Oklahoma and eastern Texas. Odds for a dry end to the year increase to 50%-60% for western Texas. — **This map shows the probability (percent chance) of above-normal (****green hues), near-normal (****gray hues), or below-normal (****brown hues) precipitation from October–December 2024. Valid September 19, 2024. White areas indicate equal chances of above-, near-, or below-normal precipitation. Source:** **NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. Map from** **Drought.gov**.

Southern Plains Drought Resources

Regional Resources

Southern Regional Climate Center
Water Data for Texas
Oklahoma Mesonet
National Weather Service Drought Information Statements
Explore state drought information on Drought.gov:

Prepared By

Joel Lisonbee, Adam Lang, Kelsey Satalino, and Eleanor Hasenbeck
Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences/University of Colorado, Boulder and NOAA’s National Integrated Drought Information System, Southern Plains Drought Early Warning System

Gary McManus
Oklahoma State Climatologist, Oklahoma Mesonet, Oklahoma Climatological Survey

John Nielsen-Gammon
Texas State Climatologist, Texas State Climate Office, Texas A&M University
Southern Regional Climate Center

William (BJ) Baule
Texas State Climate Office, Texas A&M University
Southern Regional Climate Center

Victor Murphy
National Weather Service

Special Thanks

This Drought Status Update is issued in partnership between the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the State Climate Offices in Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas to communicate a potential area of concern for drought expansion and/or development within the Southern Plains region based on recent conditions and the upcoming forecast. NIDIS and its partners will issue future Drought Status Updates as conditions evolve.