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Outlooks & Forecasts

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The Drought.gov team reformats data from multiple partners into web- and GIS-ready formats, which we use throughout Drought.gov. These data, hosted on Google Cloud Storage, are free for all to download or reference directly from their web applications.

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Map Cards
Map
Data Valid: Start Date
first day of +1 month
Data Valid: End Date
last day of +1 month
Dataset Name

CPC U.S. Monthly Drought Outlook

Last Update
10/31/24

Drought outlooks from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) were available in a GIS format. For more details about the current Monthly Drought Outlook map, read the latest monthly assessment from CPC.

Source(s)
Update Schedule

The Climate Prediction Center issues its Monthly Drought Outlooks on the last day of the calendar month.

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Data Valid: Start Date
+0 days
Data Valid: End Date
last day of +3 months
Dataset Name

CPC U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook

Last Update
10/31/24

Drought outlooks from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) were available in a GIS format. For more details about the current Seasonal Drought Outlook map, read the latest seasonal assessment from CPC.

Source(s)
Update Schedule

The Climate Prediction Center issues its Seasonal Drought Outlooks on the third Thursday of each calendar month. Sometimes, the map is adjusted on the last day of the month to maintain consistency with the Monthly Drought Outlook.

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Data Valid: Start Date
+0 days
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+1 days
Dataset Name

Quantitative Precipitation Forecast: Day 1

Last Update
11/19/24

Produced by the National Weather Service's Weather Prediction Center, this Quantitative Precipitation Forecast shows the amount of liquid precipitation expected to fall over the next 24 hours. (In the case of snow or ice, the forecast represents the amount of liquid that will be measured when the precipitation is melted.) Precipitation amounts can vary significantly over short distances, especially when thunderstorms occur, so the Quantitative Precipitation Forecast is defined as the expected "areal average" (on a 20 x 20 km grid) in inches.

Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) data were available in a GIS format from the National Weather Service's Weather Prediction Center. The QPF maps on Drought.gov are updated daily and are valid from 12z (7 a.m. Eastern) that day.

Source(s)
Update Schedule

The Quantitative Precipitation Forecast maps on Drought.gov are updated once a day and are valid from 7 a.m. Eastern that day.

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Data Valid: Start Date
+0 days
Data Valid: End Date
+7 days
Dataset Name

Quantitative Precipitation Forecast: Day 1–7

Last Update
11/19/24

Produced by the National Weather Service's Weather Prediction Center, this Quantitative Precipitation Forecast shows the amount of liquid precipitation expected to fall over the next 7 days. (In the case of snow or ice, the forecast represents the amount of liquid that will be measured when the precipitation is melted.) Precipitation amounts can vary significantly over short distances, especially when thunderstorms occur, so the Quantitative Precipitation Forecast is defined as the expected "areal average" (on a 20 x 20 km grid) in inches. Learn more.

Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) data were available in a GIS format from the National Weather Service's Weather Prediction Center. The QPF maps on Drought.gov are updated daily and are valid from 12z (7 a.m. Eastern) that day.

Source(s)
Update Schedule

The Quantitative Precipitation Forecast maps on Drought.gov are updated once a day and are valid from 7 a.m. Eastern that day.

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Data Valid: Start Date
+6 days
Data Valid: End Date
+10 days
Dataset Name

CPC 6–10 Day Precipitation Outlook

Last Update
11/18/24

Temperature and precipitation data from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center were available in a GIS format. The 6–10 day outlook is updated daily.

Source(s)
Update Schedule

The Climate Prediction Center updates their 6–10 day precipitation outlook daily.

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Data Valid: Start Date
+8 days
Data Valid: End Date
+14 days
Dataset Name

CPC 8–14 Day Precipitation Outlook

Last Update
11/18/24

Temperature and precipitation data from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center were available in a GIS format. The 8–14 day outlook is updated daily.

Source(s)
Update Schedule

The Climate Prediction Center updates their 8–14 day outlooks daily.

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Data Valid: Start Date
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Data Valid: End Date
last day of +1 month
Dataset Name

CPC 1-Month Precipitation Outlook

Last Update
10/31/24

Precipitation data from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center were available in a GIS format. The monthly precipitation outlook is updated on the third Thursday of each calendar month.

Source(s)
Update Schedule

The Climate Prediction Center updates their monthly precipitation outlook on the third Thursday of each calendar month and again on the last day of each calendar month.

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Data Valid: Start Date
first day of +1 month
Data Valid: End Date
last day of +3 months
Dataset Name

CPC Seasonal Precipitation Outlook

Last Update
10/17/24

Precipitation data from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center were available in a GIS format. The seasonal precipitation outlook is updated on the third Thursday of each calendar month.

Source(s)
Update Schedule

The Climate Prediction Center updates their seasonal precipitation outlook on the third Thursday of each calendar month.

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Data Valid: Start Date
+6 days
Data Valid: End Date
+10 days
Dataset Name

CPC 6–10 Day Temperature Outlook

Last Update
11/18/24

Temperature outlook data from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center were available in a GIS format.

Source(s)
Update Schedule

The Climate Prediction Center updates their 6–10 day outlooks daily.

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Data Valid: Start Date
+8 days
Data Valid: End Date
+14 days
Dataset Name

CPC 8–14 Day Temperature Outlook

Last Update
11/18/24

Temperature and precipitation data from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center were available in a GIS format.

Source(s)
Update Schedule

The Climate Prediction Center updates their 8–14 day outlooks daily.

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Data Valid: Start Date
first day of +1 month
Data Valid: End Date
last day of +1 month
Dataset Name

CPC 1-Month Temperature Outlook

Last Update
10/31/24

Temperature outlook data from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center were available in a GIS format.

Source(s)
Update Schedule

The Climate Prediction Center updates their monthly temperature outlook on the third Thursday of each calendar month and again on the last day of each calendar month.

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Data Valid: Start Date
first day of +1 month
Data Valid: End Date
last day of +3 months
Dataset Name

CPC Seasonal Temperature Outlook

Last Update
10/17/24

Temperature outlook data from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center were available in a GIS format.

Source(s)
Update Schedule

The Climate Prediction Center updates their seasonal temperature outlook on the third Thursday of each calendar month.

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Dataset Name

Rapid Onset Drought Hazard Outlook

Last Update
11/18/24

Data from the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center's (CPC) Week 2 (Day 8–14) U.S. Hazards Outlook were available as shapefiles from the CPC Hazards Web Service. This map displays Rapid Onset Drought (ROD) hazard risk areas.

Below are the criteria used for issuing Rapid Onset Drought risk areas. Because prior conditions play a role in impacts of these hazards, these hazard definitions are only guidelines. The Hazards Outlook contains human-drawn delineations of where various variables are expected to have the potential of posing a hazard to life or property. The forecasters do apply a subjective decision factor when delineating a hazard area. A cold snap in the winter or a heatwave in the summer are likely threats to life and property, while a cool period in July is not.

Rapid Onset Drought: The Rapid Onset Drought risk product highlights areas where rapid drought development (sometimes known as “flash drought”) may occur in the coming 2–4 weeks as depicted by the U.S. Drought Monitor. Forecasters use initial conditions, such antecedent dryness (e.g., soil moisture), and skillful temperature and precipitation outlooks during the next 2 weeks to communicate the risk of rapidly developing drought. The primary tools used to define areas at risk for Rapid Onset Drought development include:

  • Abnormal Dryness (D0) in the current U.S. Drought Monitor
  • Soil moisture below the 30th percentile
  • 7-day positive temperature anomalies from the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD), especially if a period of extreme heat is possible 
  • No precipitation forecast or forecast negative precipitation anomalies from the National Weather Service's Weather Prediction Center and the CPC’s 8–14 day outlooks.

These conditions are markers for potential degradation of two categories or more in a four-week period based on the U.S. Drought Monitor.

Source(s)
Update Schedule

National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters issue rapid onset drought (ROD) risk areas on Thursdays, with the potential for updates on the following Mondays, from April 1–October 31. 

The NWS Climate Prediction Center hazards outlook is issued between 2–5 p.m. ET, and this Drought.gov map updates at 7 p.m. ET. 

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