California-Nevada Drought & Climate Outlook Webinar: November 27, 2023

Welcome to the California-Nevada Drought & Climate Outlook Webinar

Speaker: Amanda Sheffield | NOAA's National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS), CU Boulder/Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES)

• Welcome to the November 2023 California-Nevada Drought & Climate Outlook webinar. 
• Recent News: 
  • The Fifth National Climate Assessment (NCA5) was released on November 15 by the Biden-Harris Administration and the U.S. Global Change Research Program. View the Southwest chapter. 
  • Expanded Drought.gov Tool Visualizes Historical Drought Conditions by County, State.
• State and regional level drought information can be found on Drought.gov: California, Nevada, California-Nevada Drought Early Warning System.

Drought and Climate Update & Outlook

Speaker: Chris Smallcomb | National Weather Service – Reno Weather Forecast Office

• While any scenario is still on the table, California-Nevada needs to be prepared for another wet/snowy winter. It’s happened before (see early 1980s and mid 1990s). 
• Overall, California-Nevada snowpack accumulation is starting off slow, but it is still within the bounds of what is considered “normal.”
• October and November were on the drier end of the spectrum, but this does not necessarily mean a dry (or wet) rest of winter. 
• The region is going into this winter with wetter soils and fuller lakes and streams, so flooding could come quickly with any major warm atmospheric rivers. 
• It has been a quiet fire weather year in much of the West. The New Orleans Weather Forecast Office has issued more Red Flag Warnings than most National Weather Service offices in California-Nevada. While not a big concern right now, if there is a prolonged dry and warm stretch, critical fire weather days are possible. 

Tools and Resources for Your Winter Toolbox

Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E) Resources

Speaker: Julie Kalansky | CNAP, CW3E, Scripps Institution of Oceanography

• Live demo of the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes website. 
  • Atmospheric River (AR) forecast products, including the AR landfall tool, AR scale forecast products, and subseasonal forecasts.
  • Watershed precipitation forecasts and other interactive maps. 
  • Odds of reaching normal water year precipitation.
  • Subseasonal to seasonal forecast products, including ridging forecasts. 
  • See the “News” section on the CW3E website for the most recent subseasonal and seasonal AR outlook. Sign up for email alerts. 

U.S. Geological Survey Resources

Speaker: Alicia Torregrosa | USGS Southwest Region

• USGS tools shared during the presentation:
  • National Water Dashboard
  • WaterWatch
  • Hydrologic Imagery Visualization and Information System (HIVIS)
  • What is streamflow drought?
• Forthcoming Drought Prediction Science tools: 
  • Regional and National Data Driven Drought Prediction Research
  • Simulating Drought Risk: Assessing Societal and Ecological Vulnerability to Drought
• Other information shared: 
  • Fire Droughts that Changed History
  • Ecological Drought Across the Country
  • Actionable and Strategic Integrated Science and Technology (ASIST)
• USGS Science Collaboration Portal for the Colorado River Basin is going live in December.

U.S. Drought Portal Resources

Speaker: Amanda Sheffield | NOAA/NIDIS, CU Boulder/CIRES

• Short live demo of Drought.gov featuring:
  • Expanded Drought.gov Historical Conditions Tool visualizes historical drought conditions by county, state.
  • California and Nevada state pages, where more tools and resources are available that we had time for in this webinar. 
  • Snow Drought Status Updates are coming soon!

Questions & Answers

Speaker: Amanda Sheffield | NOAA/NIDIS, CU Boulder/CIRES

• Register now for the next webinar in this series on Monday, January 22, 2024.