Intermountain West Drought & Climate Outlook Webinar: July 23, 2024

Welcome to the Intermountain West Drought Briefing 

Speaker: Dr. Gretel Follingstad | Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES)/University of Colorado Boulder; NOAA’s National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS)

• Welcome to the July 2024 Intermountain West Drought Briefing.
• Sign up for NIDIS emails as well as drought alerts.
• View the North American Monsoon Special Drought Status Update July 2024.
• View past webinar recordings at drought.gov/webinars.
• Introducing today's speakers:
  • Dr. Erinanne Saffell is the Arizona State Climatologist, Director of the Arizona State Climate Office at Arizona State University, and Senior Global Futures Scientist. Her main research interests are extreme weather and climate events, including flood and drought, as well as impacts of urban heat islands. Dr. Saffell presented the Intermountain West Drought Conditions and Outlooks.
  • Lauren Kramer is a Biological Science Technician with the USDA Southwest Climate Hub, USDA Agricultural Research Service, Jornada Experimental Range. Lauren’s area of expertise is science synthesis and adaptation planning in forests. Lauren presented on the Forest Resource Index for Decisions in Adaptation (FRIDA).
  • Dr. Matthew Hurteau is a Professor in the Department of Biology at the University of New Mexico. His research focuses on climate change mitigation and adaptation in forest systems, coupled natural and human systems, and quantifying feedback between these systems, to provide a policy-relevant context for science. Dr. Hurteau presented work he leads with the Earth Systems Ecology Team at the University of New Mexico on Post-Wildfire Forest Regeneration.

Current Drought Conditions and Outlook 

Speaker: Dr. Erinanne Saffell | Arizona State Climate Office at Arizona State University

• Current drought conditions show drought improvements for the southern portions of the Intermountain West due to June precipitation. However, the northern states in the region saw drought develop across many areas that were drought-free or just Abnormally Dry (D0) for most of 2024 (to date):
  • Arizona: 18.4% in drought (0% in D3–D4)
  • Colorado: 9.8% in drought (0% in D3–D4)
  • New Mexico: 50.9% in drought (12.1% in D3–D4)
  • Utah: 0.0 % in drought (0% in D3–D4) 
  • Wyoming: 46.1% in drought (0% in D3–D4) 
• The water year to date is warmer than normal, with most areas receiving below-average water year precipitation.
• Abnormally Dry (D0) conditions advanced in the West, decreasing areas fully without drought and dryness.
• The NOAA Climate Prediction Center’s seasonal outlooks show a greater likelihood of  warmer and drier conditions from August to October.
• La Nina has a 70% chance of developing from August to October.

Forest Resource Index for Decisions in Adaptation (FRIDA)

Speaker: Lauren Kramer| USDA Southwest Climate Hub, USDA-ARS, Jornada Experimental Range

• In collaboration with the Southwest and South Central Climate Adaptation Science Centers, the USDA Southwest Climate Hub developed the Forest Resource Index for Decisions in Adaptation (or FRIDA).
• FRIDA is an online library of decision-support tools and resources to support climate change adaptation decision-making and forest stewardship in the Southwest. 
• FRIDA allows managers and decision-makers to easily query based on their objectives and area(s) of interest: resources can be filtered by topic area, region/state, platform type, and vegetation type. 
• FRIDA is hosted on the Jornada Experimental Range's website, so it will be maintained and updated frequently as new tools and resources emerge.

Post-Wildfire Forest Regeneration

Speaker: Dr. Matthew Hurteau | Earth Systems Ecology Lab Team at the University of New Mexico

• Post-fire reforestation seedling survival rates are low because of increased heat and drought stress.
• Identifying landscape positions that buffer the seedling from extreme heat or drought can increase survival.
• Researchers can predict the probability of planted seedling survival with 63% accuracy using high-resolution topographic data.
• Learn more from the Earth Systems Ecology Lab website.

Questions & Answers

Speaker: Dr. Gretel Follingstad | CIRES/CU Boulder, NOAA/NIDIS