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Southeast Climate Monthly Webinar: August 27, 2024

Event Date
August 27, 2024
Event Time
10:00 am - 11:00 am
Timezone
ET
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“Feast or famine” was the theme for the Southeast this past month, with most of the region either very wet or very dry. Significant flooding occurred in coastal areas impacted by Hurricane Debby. The region’s interior increasingly dried out after a wet July, with some locations on track to record their driest summer on record. Hurricane Ernesto brought heavy rain and high winds to Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. We are still waiting for La Niña to appear, which is now expected in the fall. 

Looking ahead, above-average temperatures are expected across most of the region. Drought is expected to develop and expand in the interior including northern Alabama and Tennessee. Some wet patterns are expected after next week, which will help reverse the trend of dryness these past few weeks. While tropical activity is quiet now, a continued active hurricane season is still expected. The potential for flooding is highly dependent on where tropical storms develop and impact the area. 

Check out the recording below to hear more on Southeast climate conditions and a special presentation, "The New National Water Prediction Service,” from Laura Belanger at the National Weather Service (NWS) Peachtree City Weather Forecast Office. 

Timestamp
0:00

Introduction and Welcome

Speaker: Chris Fuhrmann, Southeast Regional Climate Center

  • This webinar contains a special presentation on "The New National Water Prediction Service."

 

Timestamp
0:55

Climate Conditions 

Speaker: Chris Fuhrmann, Southeast Regional Climate Center

  • Temperatures this past month were near average across much of the region, except for Florida, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands, which were above average. Some locations in Florida recorded their all-time warmest minimum temperatures. Other parts of the region experienced their coolest August temperatures in over a decade.
  • Precipitation this past month was highly variable across the region: 
    • Wetter-than-average conditions were found across the Florida Peninsula, eastern portions of Georgia and the Carolinas, and southern Virginia. Much of this was related to Hurricane Debby. Precipitation was above average across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Much of this was related to Hurricane Ernesto.
    • Drier-than-average conditions were found across northwest Florida, much of Alabama, central Tennessee, and western Georgia. 
  • Drought conditions were eliminated across Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas where small areas of dryness remained. Drought in Northern Virginia improved, and further improvement is expected over the next 3 months. Drought and abnormal dryness persisted across parts of Alabama and Tennessee and is expected to persist over the next 3 months. Dry conditions in northern Alabama are at risk to worsen into a flash drought over the next two weeks, although this may be short-lived because precipitation amounts are expected to increase in Week 2. Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands remained drought-free. No new development is expected across the Southeast or Caribbean.
  • ENSO-neutral conditions persisted. La Niña is expected to develop later this fall and persist through the upcoming winter.
  • Looking ahead: 
    • The next two weeks are expected to be warmer and wetter than average. Cooler temperatures are expected across the northern tier of the region during Week 2. 
    • Over the next month, above-average temperatures are expected, with wetter-than-average conditions over the eastern two-thirds of the region.
  • Over the next three months, temperatures and precipitation are expected to be above average across most of the Southeast and Caribbean. Precipitation is expected to be near average across the interior of the region.
  • A highly active Atlantic hurricane season is likely to continue. Near-record sea surface temperatures and the possibility of La Niña are key factors. 
  • For more information, contact Chris Fuhrmann.
  • Additional regional climate and drought information:

 

Timestamp
11:15

Water Resources Outlook

Speaker: Todd Hamill, Southeast River Forecast Center, National Weather Service

  • Hurricane Debby significantly affected parts of Florida and the Atlantic Seaboard, and it has taken time to recover in those areas that received heavy rain. With a continued active Atlantic hurricane season predicted, the areas that were affected by Debby will be more vulnerable to potential flooding due to that rainfall.  Dryness since then has allowed it to mostly recover but still remains slightly above normal for flooding risk. Parts of Mississippi, Alabama, the Florida panhandle, Georgia, and the western Carolinas into Virginia were mostly dry in the last month, but remain at normal risk of flooding due to an active tropical season.
  • The 28-day U.S. Geological Survey streamflows are mostly above normal in areas along the path of Hurricane Debby, and below normal in areas that did not receive that rainfall.
  • Only a few rivers remain in flood from Debby. The Florida peninsula remains very vulnerable to flooding due to continued rain after the storm keeping the area wet.    
  • Looking ahead: For the next three months, the potential for flooding is highly dependent on where tropical storms develop and impact the area. The only exception to this is the central Florida area that typically sees flooding this time of year due to frequent thunderstorm activity as part of the area’s climatology.
  • Additional streamflow and flood information is available from the NWS River Forecast Centers:
  • Watch a recording of the August 2024 NWS Water Resources Outlook for the Southeast.
  • For more information, contact Todd Hamill.

 

Timestamp
23:38

Agriculture Impact and Outlook

Speaker: Pam Knox, University of Georgia

  • Hurricane Debby impacted many crops in the eastern half of the region with very heavy rain and gusty winds. Crops impacted include tobacco, corn, vegetables, cotton, peanuts, and pecans. Estimated losses are still being collected.
  • Growing degree days are running near to a little behind the long-term average and well above 2023, according to the Growing Degree Days calculator from AgroClimate.
  • After a wet July, the Southeast region (other than Florida) returned to dry conditions, and irrigation in those areas has been heavy, even where Debby dropped more than a foot of rain.
  • Lack of tropical moisture has led to increasing dry conditions.
  • There is more pest and disease pressure this year, and farmers have had trouble getting into the fields.
  • For more information, contact Pam Knox.
  • Report drought conditions. Sign up to receive updates from the Climate and Agriculture in the Southeast: Blog.

 

Timestamp
33:43

Special Presentation: The National Water Prediction Service

Speaker: Laura Belanger, Atlanta Weather Forecast Office, National Weather Service

  • The National Water Prediction Service (NWPS) is the new hub for water data, products, and services, combining local and regional water data and forecasts with new capabilities, such as flood inundation maps and the National Water Model. The site leverages modern software, geospatial technology, and cloud infrastructure to improve the user experience before, during, and after flood events.
  • As with its predecessor, the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service, NWPS continues to provide tools to deliver actionable hydrologic information, such as precipitation estimates, River Forecast Center forecasts, and long range outlooks. 
  • New key features integrated into NWPS further enhance the level of water services, including a dynamic national map with expansive layers and flexible options, improved hydrographs, the National Water Model guidance forecast, a phased roll out of real-time comprehensive Flood Inundation Maps, and API services.
  • Additional information is available from the Office of Water Prediction’s resource page, including a Quick Start Guide, API flyer, and walk-through recordings. 
  • Any questions, comments or suggestions can be directed to nwps.webmaster@noaa.gov. 
  • For more information, contact Laura Belanger.

 

Timestamp
58:40

Q&A and Closing

Speaker: Meredith Muth, NOAA’s National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS)

  • Register for upcoming webinars!
    • September 24, 2024: Fire Weather Portal for the Southeast 
    • October 22, 2024: Review of the 2024 Growing Season
    • November 19, 2024: El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Winter Outlook

 

About This Webinar

The Southeast Climate monthly webinar series is hosted by the Southeast Regional Climate Center, the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS), and the NOAA National Weather Service. These webinars provide the region with timely information on current and developing climate conditions such as drought, floods, and tropical storms, as well as climatic events like El Niño and La Niña. Speakers may also discuss the impacts of these conditions on topics such as agriculture production, water resources, wildfires, and ecosystems

 
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National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS).

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