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Southeast Climate Monthly Webinar: June 28, 2022

Event Date
June 28, 2022
Event Time
10:00 am - 11:00 am
Timezone
EDT
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Most of the Southeast region was hot and dry for the past 30 days. Temperatures were above average and included some record highs. Precipitation was variable, but generally below average for most of the region. The heat and dryness have contributed to the intensification of drought conditions in the region including the eastern Carolinas and Georgia, with agricultural impacts being observed. Streamflows are slightly-below to near-normal across most of the Southeast.

Looking ahead: The three-month Southeast outlooks depict a higher probability of above-normal temperatures, near-normal streamflow ranges and typical flood conditions, and some drought removal across the region. The Atlantic Hurricane Season began on June 1—be prepared! Check out this month’s special presentation, “2022 Seasonal Hurricane Outlook," to learn about how NOAA creates a Hurricane Outlook and what to expect for this year.

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0:00

Introduction and Welcome

Speaker: Sandra Rayne, Southeast Regional Climate Center

  • Webinar focus: Climate and special topics pertaining to the Southeast region.
  • Our special topic today is "2022 Seasonal Hurricane Outlook."

 

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1:02

Climate Conditions 

Speaker: Sandra Rayne, Southeast Regional Climate Center

  • Climate Overview: In general, temperatures were above average, and precipitation was below average in most locations for the past 30 days. This is the peak time of year for severe weather across the Southeast. 
  • Tropical Storm Activity: The Atlantic Hurricane Season began on June 1. Tropical Storm Alex, with peak winds of 70 mph, brought heavy rain to Florida. A tropical wave near the Windward Islands has a 70% chance of development in the next 48 hours. 
  • Drought: Drought continues to expand and strengthen in parts of the Southeast region due to dry and hot conditions that are rapidly reducing soil moisture. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, there is severe drought (D2) in eastern North Carolina and parts of Georgia and South Carolina. There is moderate drought (D1) in the Carolinas and parts of Georgia. There is moderate drought (D1) and severe drought (D2) in Puerto Rico, with extreme drought (D3) for parts of the U.S. Virgin Islands. The National Weather Service Monthly Drought Outlook depicts that drought is expected to persist in small parts of Georgia, but improve in the Carolinas. The U.S. Drought Portal (Drought.gov) provides additional drought information at national and local levels. 
  • La Niña Advisory: La Niña advisory conditions are favored to continue through the end of the year with a 52% chance through July–September 2022 and a 58%–59% chance through the fall and early winter. This could lead to the third La Niña in a row this winter! The next update is July 14, 2022.  
  • Looking Ahead, Next Week: The National Weather Service July 3–7 outlook has a higher probability of warmer-than-normal temperatures and wetter-than-normal conditions for Virginia and North Carolina.
  • Looking Ahead, Seasonal: The current National Weather Service three-month outlook shows a higher probability of above-normal temperatures across the entire region, with wetter-than-normal conditions across much of the region.

 

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5:29

Water Resources: Summer Flood Outlook 

Speaker: Jeff Dobur, Southeast River Forecast Center, National Weather Service

  • The 28-day U.S. Geological Survey streamflows are near normal across most of the Southeast. Streamflows typically fall off this time of year with the exception of the Florida peninsula.
  • Looking Ahead: Expect streamflows to continue as an average in the normal range for much of the Southeast through summer. Variability is expected with geographical pockets above and below. Flooding will be typical, which means a low chance for the interior Southeast river systems and an increased risk across the Florida peninsula as the wet season begins and the risk of tropical systems begins especially in July.
  • View additional information.

 

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11:40

Agriculture Impact and Outlook

Speaker: Pam Knox, University of Georgia 

  • Drought intensity increased in most areas due to a lack of rain and extremely hot temperatures. Dryland corn in western Georgia may see total loss due to dry conditions during pollination (similar to 2016 in northwestern Georgia). Pest and disease pressure is increasing across the region, with southern corn rust and white mold expanding.
  • Looking Ahead: Warm conditions should continue over the next two weeks, and then return to more frequent daily rains. Tropics are starting to wake up—it is time to prepare if you haven’t yet.
  • Additional information on reporting impacts is found here. Sign up for the Climate and Agriculture in the Southeast: Blog.

 

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19:30

2022 Seasonal Hurricane Outlook

Speaker: Matthew Rosencrans, NOAA Climate Prediction Center

  • Watch this great presentation to learn about how Hurricane Outlooks are made and what climate factors (e.g., El Niño–Southern Oscillation) contribute to the Outlook.
  • 2022 Atlantic Outlook:
    • Above-normal season most likely.
    • 14–21 named storms
    • 6–10 hurricanes
    • 3–6 major hurricanes
    • Factors: Warm Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation (AMV) and La Niña 
  • An update to the Atlantic Hurricane Outlook will be released in August.
  • Prepare now! Help build a weather and climate-ready nation!
  • For more information: 

 

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44:30

Closing

Speaker: Meredith Muth, NOAA National Integrated Drought Information System

  • Register for the next webinars:
    • July 26, 2022, Harmful Algae Blooms in the Southeast
    • August 23, 2022, Climate, Heat, and the Southeast
    • September 27, 2022, USGS Next Generation Update

 

About This Webinar

The Southeast Climate monthly webinar series is hosted by the Southeast Regional Climate Center, the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS), and the NOAA National Weather Service. These webinars provide the region with timely information on current and developing climate conditions such as drought, floods, and tropical storms, as well as climatic events like El Niño and La Niña. Speakers may also discuss the impacts of these conditions on topics such as agriculture production, water resources, wildfires, and ecosystems.

 

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