Southeast Climate Monthly Webinar: October 22, 2024

Introduction and Welcome

Speaker: Chris Fuhrmann, Southeast Regional Climate Center

• This webinar contains a special presentation, "Review of the 2024 Growing Season,” from Pam Knox from the University of Georgia.

Climate Conditions 

Speaker: Chris Fuhrmann, Southeast Regional Climate Center

• Temperatures were above average across the northern tier of the region and along the Florida Peninsula; several locations in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands are on track to record one of their warmest Octobers on record.
• Precipitation was driven largely by tropical systems. Hurricane Helene dropped over 10 inches of rain from the Big Bend of Florida through central portions of Georgia and western portions of the Carolinas and Virginia; some amounts in western North Carolina exceeded the 1,000 year recurrence interval. Hurricane Milton dropped 10 to 20 inches of rain across parts of the Florida Peninsula. Drier than average conditions were found across much of Alabama, western Tennessee, eastern portions of the Carolinas and Virginia, and Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. For additional information, Tennessee has released a story map and series of videos that explore the impact of Hurricane Helene on Southern Appalachia, and North Carolina discussed flooding from Helene in their monthly climate blog.
• Drought persisted across parts of Alabama and Tennessee. Abnormal Dryness (D0) persisted across northern Virginia and emerged across eastern portions of Georgia, South Carolina, and southern portions of Puerto Rico. Significant improvements were noted across northern parts of Georgia and South Carolina, eastern Tennessee, and western North Carolina. Drought is expected to expand across much of Alabama and parts of Tennessee over the next three months. No new development is expected across the Caribbean.
• El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral conditions persisted. La Niña is expected to develop in the coming months and persist through the upcoming winter.
• The next two weeks are expected to be warmer and drier than average, except across Florida, which is expected to be wetter than average. 
• Over the next month, warm and dry conditions are expected across much of the region, with equal chances of above- and belowaverage precipitation across the northern tier and across South Florida.
• The winter outlook shows generally warm and dry conditions for the Southeast, except across northern and interior portions of the region, which have equal chances of below- and above-average precipitation; warm and wet conditions are expected across the Caribbean over the next three months.
• The Atlantic Hurricane season is coming to an end and there is no current threat to the Southeast, but there is still the possibility of new storm development. Monitor tropical storms through your local National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office and the National Hurricane Center.
• For more information, contact Chris Fuhrmann.
• Additional regional climate and drought information:
  • Southeast Regional Climate Center (SERCC), which includes Monthly Drought Summaries and Quarterly Climate Reports. Follow the SERCC on Facebook and Twitter to receive notifications of monitoring reports and other products. 
  • U.S. Drought Portal (Drought.gov), which includes drought information and outlooks at city, state and national levels. 
  • Local Drought Information Statements from the National Weather Service.
  • Fall foliage links and resources for the Southeast.

Water Resources Outlook

Speaker: Todd Hamill, Southeast River Forecast Center, National Weather Service

• The 2024 tropical season was especially impactful to the Southeast. Hurricane Helene and Milton brought significant rain to the area that led to serious flooding.    
• The 28-day U.S. Geological Survey streamflows are mostly near to above normal as most of the Southeast has been affected by tropical systems.
• Looking ahead, current forecasts have very little rain expected in the coming weeks to a month. Over the next three months, the potential for flooding is highly dependent on if the current dry pattern breaks down.    
• Central Florida is the one area that remains a concern because it remains wet and is still experiencing flooding, and it won’t take much additional precipitation to impact the area. However, with the Florida Peninsula moving into the dry season and with La Niña potentially arriving, this area could receive a much needed break.
• Additional streamflow and flood information is available from the National Weather Service River Forecast Centers:
  • Southeast River Forecast Center
  • Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center
  • Mid-Atlantic River Forecast Center
  • Ohio River Forecast Center
• For more information, contact Todd Hamill.

Special Presentation: Review of the 2024 Growing Season

Speaker: Pam Knox, University of Georgia

• Precipitation during the 2024 growing season swung from high to low and back to high from one month to next, causing varied impacts on crops. This overall pattern was dominated by tropical cyclone activity.
• Temperatures were generally a little warmer than average.
• Drought expanded during those periods of low tropical activity or those areas not impacted by rains associated with tropical storms.
• Multiple hurricanes and tropical storms brought devastation to Florida, Georgia, the Carolinas, eastern Tennessee and western Virginia, in some cases twice in the same season. 2024 could be the worst year for U.S. farmers since 2007.
• Many crops were impacted during the growing season, including tobacco, peanuts, cotton, citrus, pecans, blueberries, and vegetables.
• Livestock was also affected by numerous storms, especially poultry.
• For more information, contact Pam Knox.
• View additional information on reporting agricultural conditions. Sign up to receive updates from the Climate and Agriculture in the Southeast: Blog.

Q&A and Closing

Speaker: Meredith Muth, NOAA’s National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS)

• Register for upcoming webinars!
  • November 19, 2024: El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Winter Outlook
  • December 2024: No webinar

Assistance for Producers Impacted by Hurricanes Debby, Helene, and Milton

USDA Assistance:

• Assistance for Hurricanes Debby, Helene and Milton
• Recovery on Your Operation
• Protect Your Operation
• Prepare Your Operation
• Reporting Losses/Submitting Applications
• Resources
• Hurricane Insurance Protection-Wind Index (HIP-WI)
• Hurricane Preparation and Recovery Commodity Guides 

Additional Resources from University of Georgia (reach out to your state extension for other information): 

• Resident’s Handbook to Prepare for Natural Hazards in Georgia
• Bark and Woodboring Beetles in Wind-damaged Pine Stands in the Southern Us
• Assessing Storm Damaged Forest Stands
• Leaning and Uprooted Pine Recovery After a Major Storm Event
• Blueberry Disease Management Recommendations After Helene
• Disaster Relief Resources for Farmers and Families
• UGA Extension Mental Well-Being
• UGA Extension Rural Stress
• Thriving on the Farm
• Home Emergency Preparedness Handbook
• Home Emergency Preparedness Checklist
• Be Prepared, Georgia: Food Safety

Extension Disaster Education Network (EDEN): 

• Flood Recovery Resources

Flooding Resources Pertaining to Agriculture: