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Southeast Climate Monthly Webinar: October 24, 2023

Event Date
October 24, 2023
Event Time
10:00 am - 11:00 am
Timezone
ET
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Temperatures were cooler than normal for most of the region over the past month, but above average across parts of Tennessee, Alabama, and Florida, and much above average across the Caribbean. Precipitation was below average across most of the region; many places recorded less than half of their expected amounts. These dry conditions led to drought expansion across Alabama, Tennessee, Georgia, and the Carolinas; drought persisted in parts of the U.S. Caribbean and the Florida West Coast. Streamflows are near normal to below normal across most of the Southeast.

Looking Ahead: While the rest of the week looks dry for much of the region, warm and wetter weather is expected over the next several weeks. This is typically a quiet time of year when it comes to river flooding for the Southeast, and streamflows are expected to continue declining into November. El Niño conditions are expected to persist through the Northern Hemisphere winter and spring with a 75%–85% chance of a strong event. This El Niño is anticipated to increase the chances for a wet, cold season across most of the region. While wetter conditions should improve drought conditions, it could also bring an increase in streamflows and river flood threat.

Check out this month’s special presentation, “Marine Heat Waves and Impacts in the Southeast” from Chris Kelble and Ian Enochs at NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory.

Timestamp
0:00

Introduction and Welcome

Speaker: Chris Fuhrmann, Southeast Regional Climate Center

  • This webinar contains a special presentation on “Marine Heat Waves and Impacts in the Southeast” from Chris Kelble and Ian Enochs at NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory.

 

Timestamp
0:58

Climate Conditions 

Speaker: Chris Fuhrmann, Southeast Regional Climate Center

  • Temperatures were below average across most of the region, but above average across parts of Tennessee, Alabama, and Florida, and much above average across the Caribbean.
  • Precipitation was below average across most of the region; many places recorded less than half of their expected amounts. Localized heavy rainfall was observed across parts of Georgia and Florida. Dry conditions were noted across the Caribbean, except in some areas affected by recent tropical cyclones and disturbances. Light snowfall was observed across the higher elevations of the Southern Appalachians.
  • Drought conditions intensified across Alabama, Tennessee, Georgia, and the Carolinas, where some locations saw a two-category degradation. Severe drought (D2) persisted across the Shenandoah Valley of Virginia, and small areas of extreme drought (D3) persisted across southern Alabama and the West Coast of Florida. Dought emerged in northeast Puerto Rico; St. John improved from severe drought (D2) to abnormally dry (D0); St. Thomas and St. Croix improved from exceptional (D4) to extreme (D3) drought.
  • El Niño conditions are expected to persist through the Northern Hemisphere winter and spring with a 75%–85% chance of a strong event.
  • Over the next several weeks, warm and wet weather is expected across much of the region, with some cooler weather expected across parts of Tennessee and Virginia during the 8-to-14-day period.
  • Over the next three months, temperatures are expected to be above average across the northern half of the region and the Caribbean, and precipitation is expected to be above average except across Tennessee and the Caribbean. Drought is expected to improve across much of the region, including the Caribbean, with some dryness persisting across parts of Tennessee, Alabama, Virginia, and the U.S. Virgin Islands; no new development is expected.
  • Additional information: Climate data, services, and climatologies in the Southeast region can be accessed via the Southeast Regional Climate Center. 

 

Timestamp
11:05

Water Resources: Autumn/Winter Flood Outlook 

Speaker: Jeff Dobur, Southeast River Forecast Center, National Weather Service (Presented by Pam Knox, University of Georgia)

  • 28-day U.S. Geological Survey streamflows are near normal to below normal across the Southeast, with some pockets of above normal. Many streamflows are even lower than usual for this fall time frame. 
  • Autumn and Winter Flood Outlook (October–December):
    • This is typically a quiet time of year when it comes to river flooding for the Southeast. Streamflow continues to decline into November. The wet season is also at its end for Florida.
    • A moderate to strong El Niño is expected, and this will increase the chances for a wet cold season across most of the region.
    • Overall, the region is expecting near-normal streamflows heading into November, but an increase in precipitation through November and into December could bring an increase in streamflows and river flood threat. This would likely continue through the rest of winter into early spring.
  • View additional information.

 

Timestamp
16:47

Agriculture Impact and Outlook

Speaker: Pam Knox, University of Georgia

  • Dry weather has allowed for the expansion of drought across a lot of the region, except where Ophelia and other rain events increased soil moisture, resulting in delays in establishing winter grains and pastures.
  • Cooler conditions have slowed the development of late-planted soybeans and other crops.
  • Tropical Storm Ophelia caused minor damage to agriculture, especially soybeans and corn, but rain was good for winter crops and peanuts.
  • Many crops are nearly all harvested, especially in northern areas and higher elevations where the chance of a freeze is approaching 50%.
  • Additional Information:

 

Timestamp
23:50

Marine Heat Waves and Impacts in the Southeast

Speaker: Chris Kelble and Ian Enochs, NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory

  • The 2023 South Florida Marine Heatwave is part of a global phenomenon due to climate change and El Niño.
  • The 2023 heatwave was unprecedented in South Florida.
  • The 2023 marine heatwave resulted in record temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico as well as South Florida.
  • Coral reefs experienced unprecedented thermal stress. 
  • Extensive monitoring efforts captured the rapid coral bleaching on hard coral and the mortality of soft corals such as sea fans. Widespread die-off has been documented in acroporid corals, octocorals, and outplanted corals.
  • Some corals persisted. For these, disease, reproduction, growth, and health are all a concern. View a summary of threats to coral reefs, including marine heatwaves.
  • For more information, contact Chris Kelble and Ian Enochs.

 

Timestamp
46:20

Q&A and Closing

Speaker: Meredith Muth, National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS)

  • Register for the next webinars!
    • November 28, 2023: ENSO/Winter Outlook
    • December 2023: No webinar
    • January 2024: 2023 Year in Review

 

About This Webinar

The Southeast Climate monthly webinar series is hosted by the Southeast Regional Climate Center, the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS), and the NOAA National Weather Service. These webinars provide the region with timely information on current and developing climate conditions such as drought, floods, and tropical storms, as well as climatic events like El Niño and La Niña. Speakers may also discuss the impacts of these conditions on topics such as agriculture production, water resources, wildfires, and ecosystems

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National Weather Service (NWS)

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NWS River Forecast Centers

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Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR)

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Southeast Regional Climate Center

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University of Georgia

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