Southern Plains Climate and Drought Update: October 22, 2024

Welcome and Introductions

Speaker: Joel Lisonbee | NOAA's National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS), Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES)

Drought Conditions in Texas

Speaker: John Nielsen-Gammon | Southern Regional Climate Center, Office of the Texas State Climatologist, Texas A&M University

• Texas is experiencing widespread short-term drought with areas of long-term drought. So far (as of October 22), August–October precipitation is comparable to the driest August-October periods on record since the drought of the 1950s.
• Water restrictions are being added. Canyon Lake in central Texas is 20% below historical levels and is setting new low-level records for this reservoir.
• Increased fire activity, mainly in the eastern part of the state.
• Crops and forage can recover with prompt rain.
• Ranching has been impacted—or is about to be.

Drought Conditions in Oklahoma 

Speaker: Gary McManus | Oklahoma Climatological Survey

• Oklahoma has seen rapid drought intensification over the last two to three months (drought is both extending and intensifying). These conditions follow three previous droughts in 2021–23.
• Rainfall deficits are growing across the state. These deficits are most severe in southeast and northeast Oklahoma, and are much less severe in the northwest  and High Plains.
• There is a lack of soil moisture at 4- and 32-inch depths across much of the state.
• Most of the winter wheat growing area is experiencing drought; 55% of winter wheat has been planted, which is 16% below normal.
• There is increased wildfire potential across most of the state. Record warm season rainfall in the Panhandle could lead to significant dormant season wildfires.
• Reservoir levels are dropping across the state. Levels are up to -18 feet in Lake Luger Altus in southwest Oklahoma. This is the third year in a row with no water for cotton irrigation.
• We’ve seen a propensity for these dry spells to start in the fall and last through the spring, especially during La Niña cool seasons. 

Drought Conditions in Kansas 

Speaker: Matt Sittel | Kansas Climate Office, Kansas State University

• Only 3% of Kansas is drought-free compared to 42% three months ago, and 16% of the state is in Severe Drought (D2) or worse, the highest since the spring. The Drought Severity and Coverage Index for the state is the highest it’s been since May. October 8 ended a 17-week run with no Extreme Drought (D3).
• Most of the state has experienced below-average precipitation during April 1–October 21. Some areas in the state are up to 10 inches below normal while precipitation in the Dodge City area is 2 to 4 inches above normal.
• Kansas received some precipitation this past week, but mostly in the west and north, largely limited to Phillips County, but no rain in the southeast. Much of the expected precipitation from the latest system occurred in E New Mexico and did not reach W Kansas.
• Cheney Lake that provides water to the city of Wichita is 8.62 feet below normal, at its lowest point since 1972. Wichita’s precipitation deficit for 2024 is -9.90”.
• Warmer than normal temperatures for October across the state. The city of Goodland is on track to break an all-time October temperature record.
• Besides lack of precipitation and above average temperatures, increased evapotranspiration demand is occurring because of the drier air.  

Forecasts and Outlooks

Speaker: Adam Hartman  | National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center

• La Niña is likely to develop by the end of November and last through most of the winter season but is favored to be weak.
• Much of the Southern Plains is forecast to be warmer and drier than average through the end of January, with the potential for these conditions to continue into February.
• Other modes of climate variability may bring brief periods of cooler and wetter conditions, but overall seasonal conditions are favored to resemble La Niña.
• Antecedent dryness and warm and dry temperature and precipitation outlooks, respectively, favor widespread drought persistence and development across the Southern Plains. 

Questions & Answers

Moderator: Joel Lisonbee | CIRES, NOAA/NIDIS