Special ACF and ACT River Basin Drought Webinar: November 15, 2023

Welcome

Speaker: Meredith Muth, NOAA's National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS)

Climate Conditions and Outlooks

Speaker: David Zierden, Florida Climate Center, Florida State University

• The 2023 hurricane season was near-to-above normal, with no real impact to the ACF or ACT basins.
• This summer was characterized by record heat and record ocean temperatures, including in the Gulf of Mexico. 
• High temperatures and lack of rainfall have contributed to Exceptional Drought (D4, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor) in Louisiana and Mississippi, and these drought conditions have steadily spread eastward towards Alabama and Georgia and Florida in the last 4–6 weeks.
• North Florida and much of Alabama and Georgia have experienced up to 32 consecutive rain-free days, leading to a rapid intensification (‘flash’) of drought across the region.
• El Niño emerged early this summer and could grow into a “strong” event.
• The typical pattern of excess rainfall and storminess associated with El Niño can be considered “late” this year, but is expected to appear soon.
• Seasonal forecasts from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) heavily favor above-normal rainfall this winter in the region, and the improvement of drought across the basins is expected over the winter.

Alabama Drought Status

Speaker:  Michael Harper, Alabama Office of Water Resources and Lee Ellenburg, Alabama Associate State Climatologist/UAH

• According to the most recent Alabama Drought Declaration, drought conditions are increasing in severity in Alabama as precipitation deficits continue to climb. 
• Drought Warnings have been declared along the entire western part of the state, with Drought Watch and Drought Advisory status for the other regions. Current coverage of Extreme Drought (D3) increased from 6% to 38% over the course of 1 month.
• The Alabama Office of Water Resources will continue monitoring water resources and update this Declaration as needed. The next Alabama Drought Monitoring and Impact Group meeting will take place on Tuesday, December 12 at 1 p.m. 
• The rapid intensification observed in September and October was similar to 2019, but the level of dryness is approaching that of 2016.
• As we enter the dry season during this time of year, Alabama is susceptible to these rapid intensifying conditions. 
• Relief is expected for Alabama, especially the southern part of Alabama, based on past El Niño events around the same time of the year.
• For more information, visit the Alabama Drought Planning and Management page.

Georgia Drought Status

Speaker: Wei Zeng, Georgia Environmental Protection Division (EPD)

• Georgia EPD monitors climatic indicators and water supply conditions to assess drought occurrence and severity, as well as its impact upon the ability of public water systems to provide adequate supplies of water. 
• EPD is required to report on current climatic indicators at least semi-annually, and as frequently as monthly when any part of the state has experienced at least two consecutive months of severe drought. 
• For more information, including the most recent report, visit the Georgia EPD Drought Management page.

Streamflow & Forecasts

Speakers: Paul Ankcorn | U.S. Geological Survey (USGS); Todd Hamill and Jeff Dobur, National Weather Service Southeast River Forecast Center

• Real-time streamflow in the ACF basin is currently ranked in the normal to low range.
• The below-normal 7-day average streamflow indicates that the ACF basin is currently ranked between normal to areas of severe hydrologic drought.
• 28-day average streamflow for the Chattahoochee River is currently in the below-normal to much-below-normal range.
• 28-day average streamflow for the Flint River is currently in the below-normal range.
• Real-time streamflow can be found at waterdata.usgs.gov.

Basin Reservoir Conditions

Speaker:  Jody Huang and Breanna Riddle, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Mobile District

• ACF reservoir conditions and forecasts:
  • All projects are currently in Zones 1, 2, and 3, and we are currently meeting all downstream minimum flow requirements. 
  • Releases at Woodruff are currently matching basin inflows over 5,000 cubic feet/second (cfs). Release requirements will change on December 1.
  • The ACF system conservation storage is in Zone 2 and is forecasted to remain in Zone 2 for the next few weeks.
• ACT reservoir conditions and forecasts:
  • All projects are currently in Zone 1 and/or within the operational headwater pool elevations.
  • We are currently meeting all downstream minimum flow requirements at the headwaters.
  • Current minimum daily flow from Caters is 350 cfs.
  • We are currently meeting the downstream target flow at Claiborne.
  • We are currently dredging at Claiborne, with updated project navigation depths to come.
  • Forecasts indicate the headwater projects will stay within Zone 1 for the next 5 weeks.

ACF-ACT 2023-2024 Winter Water Resources Forecast

Speaker: Todd Hamill, National Weather Service Southeast River Forecast Center

• The current dry weather pattern looks like it will give way to a more active and wet El Niño pattern.
• Lake levels are now well below normal in many cases but are likely to recover as we approach winter.
• The upcoming recharge/flood season is expected to be active. It is likely that the rivers will recover from drought and flooding will become an issue as we approach the winter.

Closing

Speaker: Meredith Muth, NOAA's National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS)

• Visit the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint (ACF) River Basin Drought and Water Dashboard.
• Visit the Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa (ACT) River Basin Drought and Water Dashboard.
• Join us for the Southeast Climate Monthly Webinar on November 28 at 10-11 a.m. ET/9-10 a.m. CT. The webinar will include a presentation on El Niño and the Winter Outlook for the Southeast from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. Register here.