NOAA El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Weather Service (NWS) Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
The NOAA Climate Prediction Center's monthly El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion provides a synopsis of current ENSO conditions and outlooks for the coming months.
El Niño and La Niña are the warm and cool phases of a recurring climate pattern across the tropical Pacific—the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or “ENSO” for short. The pattern can shift back and forth irregularly every two to seven years, and each phase triggers predictable disruptions of temperature, precipitation, and winds. These changes disrupt the large-scale air movements in the tropics, triggering a cascade of global side effects.
The ENSO Diagnostic Discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. The discussion is issued monthly, in both English and Spanish. Each discussion includes an ENSO Alert System status:
- El Niño or La Niña Watch: Issued when conditions are favorable for the development of El Niño or La Niña conditions within the next six months.
- El Niño or La Niña Advisory: Issued when El Niño or La Niña conditions are observed and expected to continue.
- Final El Niño or La Niña Advisory: Issued after El Niño or La Niña conditions have ended.
- NA: ENSO Alert System is not active.
To receive an email notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please email ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.
