NOAA National Weather Service (NWS) Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Climate outlooks describe the chances that conditions will be below-normal, near-normal, or above-normal for the outlook period indicated. The U.S. Monthly Drought Outlook is issued at the end of each calendar month and is valid for the upcoming month. The Outlooks predicts whether drought will emerge, stay the same or get better over the next 30 days or so.
Where do these data come from?
Climate scientists base future climate outlooks on current patterns in the ocean and atmosphere. They examine projections from climate and weather models and consider recent trends. They also check historical records to see how much precipitation fell when patterns were similar in the past.