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Regional Drought Update Date
June 9, 2023
Site Section
Drought Status Update

Drought Early Warning Update for the Northeast

DEWS Regions:
Northeast
States:
Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont
Update Status:

NIDIS and its partners will issue future Northeast Drought Early Warning Updates as conditions evolve.

Drought Develops in Maine, New York, and Vermont; Record 30-Day Rainfall Deficits in Central New York

 

 

 

Key Points:

  • Moderate Drought (D1) was introduced in northern portions of Vermont and Maine, and several New York counties—just north of the Pennsylvania border.  
  • Abnormally Dry conditions (D0) expanded dramatically across New York state, going from 2% coverage as of May 23 to 82% coverage as of June 6. Minor expansions of D0 also occurred elsewhere in the region.
  • As Abnormal Dryness expands and Moderate Drought develops, impact reports have begun to come in: 
    • In the June 8 meeting of New York State field crop interests, the consensus was that rain is sorely needed. Waterways in northern New York have dropped significantly since the precipitation events in late April and early May, which did little for many fields. High evapotranspiration rates in more recent weeks are exacerbating conditions.
    • Deterioration of conditions across much of New York, Vermont, and northern New Hampshire and Maine are reflected in the below-normal, much-below-normal, and low streamflow conditions for the 7-, 14-, and 28-day periods. 
    • In New York, this past week’s Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) speak to reduced streamflow with warmer water temperatures, drying ponds and wetlands, along with concerns for drinking water quality and availability from some wells.  
  • Precipitation chances increase through Friday and again for early next week for most of the region. Areas that see rain will see some relief from dryness and smoke but the totals will need to be significant to ease the building deficits. 
  • Above-normal significant wildland fire potential is predicted for parts of the Northeast in July and August, according to the National Interagency Fire Center.

More CMOR, Please! 

Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) help us understand how drought and dryness are impacting you at the local level. These descriptions are a supplement to other data that are collected, and are often used by the U.S. Drought Monitor authors as a way to identify areas that may need further evaluation.

Submit a Report

Current Conditions
U.S. Drought Monitor | Northeast
This Week

U.S. Drought Monitor Categories

Data valid: 06/06/23
Learn More

Current Conditions

Days Without Measurable Precipitation: May 8–June 6
Station Number of  Days Historical Ranking Period of Record
Ithaca, NY 26 2 1893–2023
LaGuardia, NY 26 1 1940–2023
Boston, mA 23 15 1872–2023
Burlington, VT 24 4 1884–2023
Binghamton, NY 29 1 1951–2023
Buffalo, NY 28 1 1871–2023
Caribou, ME 17 32 1939–2023
Albany, NY 26 2 1874–2023
Philadelphia, PA 27 1 1872–2023

Number of days without measurable precipitation for selected stations, from May 8–June 6, 2023. Note: Period of record (POR) does vary for each site. Source: Northeast Regional Climate Center, ACIS.

Accumulated Precipitation Departure from Normal

Many locations across the Northeast have seen increasing precipitation deficits since the start of May.
Departure from normal precipitation (inches) for Caribou Area, ME (blue), Burlington Area, VT (black), Boston Area, MA (green), Islip Area, NY (orange), Binghamton Area, NY (purple), and Buffalo Area, NY (red). Source: ACIS.

New England Groundwater Levels

Groundwater levels are below normal in much of western/central New York, with a few below-normal sites in Massachusetts, Vermont, Connecticut, and Rhode Island. Maine groundwater levels are normal to above normal.
U.S. Geological Survey groundwater data for New England, showing the percentile of the most recently measured groundwater levels relative to long-term monthly statistics. Updated June 9, 2023. Source: U.S. Geological Survey via the Northeast DEWS Dashboard.

Real-Time Streamflow Conditions: June 9, 2023

As of June 9 23, real-time streamflow is below or much below normal for many sites across New York and New England. The highest streamflows are in Maine.
Real-time streamflow conditions at U.S. Geological Survey streamgages in the Northeast, compared to historical conditions for the same day of the year. Valid June 9, 2023. Source: U.S. Geological Survey via Drought.gov.

Precipitation Minus Potential Evapotranspiration: June 1–7

Precipitation minus potential evapotranspiration in inches across the Northeast.
Precipitation minus potential evapotranspiration (PET), in inches, for June 1–7, 2023. Buffalo, NY had a 15-day (May 27–June 5) PET total of 2.54 inches, which ranks as the station's 9th highest for any 15-day period (since 1950). Source: ACIS.

State-Reported Conditions and Impacts

Connecticut

Maine

Massachusetts

New Hampshire

New York

Rhode Island

Vermont

Northeast

Find additional impacts through the National Drought Mitigation Center’s Drought Impact Reporter. 

Visit the new Drought.gov state pages for additional maps and resources. Or, find local drought information by address, city or zip code on Drought.gov. 

Outlooks

8–14 Day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks: June 16–22

Near-normal temperatures are expected for the coastline, with warmer-than-normal temperatures inland. These warmer conditions inland, where agricultural efforts are more prevalent, will increase evapotranspiration and not allow for significant retention of needed rains.

 

From June 16 to 22, odds favor above-normal temperatures for inland New York and New England, with near-normal temperatures along the coastline.
8–14 day temperature outlook, showing the probability (percent chance) of above-, below-, or near-normal temperatures across the Northeast from June 16–22, 2023. Issued June 8, 2023. Source: Climate Prediction Center via Drought.gov.

Near-normal precipitation is expected for the entire region during the period, except for western New York (which slightly favors below-normal precipitation). This could put a pause on the expansion and intensification of any dryness, but it may not be substantial enough to improve the deficits that were built up in May and early June.
 

From June 15 to 21, odds favor near-normal precipitation across the Northeast, except for western New York.
8–14 day precipitation outlook, showing the probability (percent chance) of above-, below-, or near-normal temperatures across the Northeast from June 16–22, 2023. Issued June 8, 2023. Source: Climate Prediction Center via Drought.gov.

Week 3–4 Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks: June 17–30 (Issued June 2, 2023)

With odds favoring above-normal temperatures and equal chances for below- or above-normal precipitation, a trend toward expanded dryness, if not drought intensification, seems likely. 

For June 17 to 30, odds favor above-normal temperatures across the Northeast.
Week 3–4 temperature outlook, showing the probability (percent chance) of above- or below-normal temperatures across the U.S. from June 17–30. Issued June 2, 2023. Source: Climate Prediction Center.
For June 17 to 30, the Northeast has equal chances of above- or below-normal precipitation.
Week 3–4 precipitation outlook, showing the probability (percent chance) of above- or below-normal precipitation across the U.S. from June 17–30. Issued June 2, 2023. Source: Climate Prediction Center.

What We Are Watching

Pennsylvania

In Pennsylvania, the expansion of Abnormal Dryness (D0) and Moderate Drought (D1) was dramatic and should be monitored closely by Northeast DEWS partners bordering the state. The May 23 Drought Monitor showed 8% of the state as Abnormally Dry; the May 30 Drought Monitor showed 93% as Abnormally Dry and 5% in Moderate Drought; and the June 6 Drought Monitor showed 35% as Abnormally Dry and 65% in Moderate Drought.

In the news:

Drought & Wildfire

For nearly a decade, NIDIS has worked with numerous national and state level partners, as well as the research community, to better understand the linkages between drought and wildfire. The NIDIS Drought & Wildland Fire Nexus (NDAWN) Strategy utilizes the best aspects of an integrated information system approach to facilitate a drought and wildland fire decision-support network. 

In the news:

Featured Resources

In Case You Missed It

  • Flash Drought Monitoring Tools (PDF): From presentations during the 2021 Flash Drought Webinar Series, 2023 National Flash Drought Workshop, and subsequent discussions with subject matter experts, NIDIS developed this handout listing currently available flash drought-oriented prediction and monitoring tools.
  • NIDIS will host the 2023 National Soil Moisture Workshop this August. Learn more and register now.

Additional Resources

Contacts for More Information

Sylvia Reeves
Regional Drought Information Coordinator (Northeast DEWS)
NOAA/CIRES/National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS)
Email: sylvia.reeves@noaa.gov

Ellen L. Mecray
Regional Climate Services Director, Eastern Region
NOAA/NESDIS/National Centers for Environmental Information
Email: Ellen.L.Mecray@noaa.gov

Prepared By

Sylvia Reeves
NOAA/National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS), CIRES

Samantha Borisoff, Jessica Spaccio, Keith Eggleston, Art DeGaetano, Natalie Umphlett
Northeast Regional Climate Center

Ellen Mecray
Regional Climate Services Director, Eastern Region, NOAA

Gardner Bent
USGS New England Water Science Center

In partnership with National Weather Service Offices of the Northeast and State Climate Offices of the Northeast. 

Special Thanks

This drought status update is issued in partnership between the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), U.S. Geological Survey, and the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) to communicate concern for drought expansion and intensification within the Northeast U.S. based on recent conditions and the forecasts and outlooks. NIDIS and its partners will issue future drought status updates as conditions evolve.

Partner(s)
NOAA emblem

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

Northeast Regional Climate Center logo

Northeast Regional Climate Center

U.S. Department of Agriculture logo

U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)

U.S. Geological Survey logo.

U.S. Geological Survey

American Association of State Climatologists

American Association of State Climatologists

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