Drought Early Warning Update for the Northeast

Much of Connecticut and Portions of Western and Southeastern New York Saw Deteriorating Conditions Mid-Month

Key Points

Moderate Drought (D1) covered several counties in western New York and portions of southeast New York (near the New Jersey and Pennsylvania borders) and emerged in eastern Long Island. Moderate Drought (D1) was somewhat reduced in coverage in north central Vermont and eased in northern Maine.
Abnormal Dryness (D0) expanded through the Massachusetts Berkshire counties, as well as a portion of central Massachusetts near the Connecticut border. Cape Cod and Islands saw some scattered rain but retained the Abnormally Dry conditions seen over the past few weeks. Abnormal Dryness expanded across most of Connecticut and New York, but eased a bit in Vermont.
Thanks to more significant rain, only two coastal counties and one northern county in Maine retain some Abnormal Dryness (D0).
New Hampshire and Rhode Island (except Block Island) are now free of any Abnormally Dry or drought conditions.
This past week’s rain and thunderstorms were widespread, but produced varied amounts across the region and will help some areas minimize fire risk associated with the Fourth of July holiday period.
Real-time and 7-day streamflows in New York have shown some improvement after the spotty rains this past week, but warmer temperatures and/or scattered light precipitation could lead to a quick return of dry conditions.
Groundwater responses lag behind, but current status still shows lower percentiles in southeast and western New York, reflecting a lack of replenishment.

U.S. Drought Monitor | Northeast

This Week 2-Week Change Map

Current U.S. Drought Monitor map for the Northeast Drought Early Warning System (DEWS) with data valid for June 20, 2023.

The U.S. Drought Monitor depicts the location and intensity of drought across the country using 5 classifications: Abnormally Dry (D0), showing areas that may be going into or are coming out of drought, and four levels of drought (D1–D4).

Source(s): NDMC, NOAA, USDA

The U.S. Drought Monitor 2-week change map shows where drought/dryness has improved, remained the same, or worsened for the Northeast from June 6 to June 20, 2023.

Yellow/orange hues show areas where conditions worsened, while green hues show improvement.

Source(s): NDMC, NOAA, USDA

U.S. Drought Monitor Categories

Drought Change Since Last Week

Data valid: 06/20/23

Learn More

Current Conditions

Accumulated Precipitation Departure from Normal

Many locations across the Northeast have had below-normal precipitation for the year to date, though Buffalo is near-normal as of late June. — Departure from normal precipitation (inches) for Caribou Area, ME (*blue*), Burlington Area, VT (*black*), Bridgeport Area, CT (*green*), Islip Area, NY (*orange*), Binghamton Area, NY (*purple)*, and Buffalo Area, NY *(red)*. Source: ACIS.

Groundwater Levels

7-Day Streamflow Conditions

As of June 27, 7-day streamflows are below or much below normal for many sites across New York and the Mid-Atlantic states. The highest streamflows are in Maine. — 7-day averaged streamflow conditions at U.S. Geological Survey streamgages in the Northeast, compared to historical conditions for the same day of the year. Valid June 27, 2023. Source: U.S. Geological Survey via the Northeast DEWS Dashboard.

State-Reported Conditions and Impacts

New York

New York State Department of Environmental Conservation (DEC): Drought
Impacts:
- June 22, 2023: Department of Environmental Conservation – Black Bears and Dry Weather
- June 20, 2023: New Canaan Advertiser – Vegetable Crops OK After Smoke and Frost
- June 19, 2023: The Leader – Rain in the Southern Tier - Is It Enough?
- June 16, 2023: The Buffalo News – Drought in Western New York
- June 15, 2023: Spectrum News1 – Strawberry Farmers Face Challenges: Dry Conditions and High Costs
- June 11, 2023: CMOR Saratoga – Very dry 6/6; mildly dry 6/11 with 1.29 in. rain soil has a caky appearance; burnt grass coverage improves but still exists
- June 11, 2023: The Ithacan – Air Quality Impacts from the Canadian Wildfires
- June 7, 2023: Spectrum News1 – Smoke Impacting Crops

Rhode Island

Rhode Island Water Resources Board: Drought Management Program

Vermont

Vermont Agency of Natural Resources, Department of Environmental Conservation: Drought and Other Hazards

Northeast

June 25, 2023: USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) Crop Progress & Condition Reports for New York and New England
June 12, 2023 The Nation - What We Can Learn From The Canadian Wildfires

Find additional impacts through the National Drought Mitigation Center’s Drought Impact Reporter.

Visit the new Drought.gov state pages for additional maps and resources. Or, find local drought information by address, city or zip code on Drought.gov.

Outlooks

8–14 Day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks: July 4–10

With temperatures and precipitation expected to be above- to near-normal across the region, the coming weeks may see a holding pattern as far as drought expansion or worsening.

From July 4th to 10th, odds favor above-normal temperatures for New York and New England. — 8–14 day temperature outlook, showing the probability (percent chance) of above-, below-, or near-normal temperatures across the Northeast from July 4–10, 2023. Issued June 26, 2023. Source: Climate Prediction Center via Drought.gov.

From July 4th to 10th, odds favor above-normal precipitation for New York and New England. — 8–14 day precipitation outlook, showing the probability (percent chance) of above-, below-, or near-normal temperatures across the Northeast from July 4–10, 2023. Issued June 26, 2023. Source: Climate Prediction Center via Drought.gov.

Week 3–4 Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks: June 17–30 (Issued June 2, 2023)

With this period’s higher probabilities of above-normal temperatures for the entire region, the persistence of drought in western New York looks likely. There are better chances for above-normal precipitation everywhere except this already moisture-challenged area.

For July 8-21, odds favor above-normal temperatures across the Northeast. — Week 3–4 temperature outlook, showing the probability (percent chance) of above- or below-normal temperatures across the U.S. from July 8–21. Issued June 23, 2023. Source: Climate Prediction Center.

For July 8-21, odds slightly favor above-normal precipitation across most of the Northeast, except for inland New York and northern Maine.. — Week 3–4 precipitation outlook, showing the probability (percent chance) of above- or below-normal precipitation across the U.S. from July 8–21. Issued June 23, 2023. Source: Climate Prediction Center.

U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook: June 15–September 31

Drought development is likely for New York state near Lake Ontario. Drought is expected to persist in northern Vermont and western New York. The western New York persistence area is connected to a large expanse of persistent drought plaguing Pennsylvania.

From June 15th to September 31, existing areas of drought are expected to persist in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. Drought is projected to develop over parts of inland New York state. — Seasonal (3-month) drought outlook, showing where drought is predicted to persist, improve, be removed, or develop from June 15–September 31, 2023. Issued June 15, 2023. Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center, via Drought.gov.

What We Are Watching

June 26, 2023: The Washington Post – Canadian Fires Update
June 20, 2023: The Corry Journal – PA Commonwealth Drought Task Force Meets - Statewide Drought Watch
June 20, 2023: New Jersey Forest Fire Service Tweet – Burlington County Fires Sparked by Lightning Strikes
June 20, 2023: New Jersey Governor’s Press Release – Water Conservation Request
June 16, 2023: The Bradford Era – Pennsylvania DEP Declares Statewide Drought Watch

Featured Resources

2nd National Flash Drought Workshop Recordings
Drought and Public Health: A Roadmap for Advancing Engagement and Preparedness
Northeast Regional Climate Center Drought Updates: Use this page to monitor drought conditions in Pennsylvania, New Jersey, West Virginia, Delaware, Maryland, and Virginia.

Upcoming Events

NIDIS will host the 2023 National Soil Moisture Workshop this August. Learn more and register now.
NOAA’s One Health Summit is set for August 15–16, 2023: The NOAA One Health Team is hosting the first NOAA One Health Summit, which will convene in Washington, D.C. The Summit will bring together scientists, practitioners, and leadership across the agency to connect and highlight NOAA’s work on health and related issues, and with the health sector, that support the One Health approach. Register here. Learn more about the summit and the One Health Program.

Additional Resources

Look back at previous Northeast DEWS Drought Status Updates
Your local National Weather Service office
NOAA Regional Climate Services Monthly Webinar Series (next webinar is on June 29)
USDA Northeast Climate Hub
USGS New England and New York Water Science Centers

Contacts for More Information

Sylvia Reeves
Regional Drought Information Coordinator (Northeast DEWS)
NOAA/CIRES/National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS)
Email: sylvia.reeves@noaa.gov

Ellen L. Mecray
Regional Climate Services Director, Eastern Region
NOAA/NESDIS/National Centers for Environmental Information
Email: Ellen.L.Mecray@noaa.gov

Prepared By

Sylvia Reeves
NOAA/National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS), CIRES

Samantha Borisoff, Jessica Spaccio, Keith Eggleston, Art DeGaetano, Natalie Umphlett
Northeast Regional Climate Center

Ellen Mecray
Regional Climate Services Director, Eastern Region, NOAA

Gardner Bent
USGS New England Water Science Center

In partnership with National Weather Service Offices of the Northeast and State Climate Offices of the Northeast.

Special Thanks

This drought status update is issued in partnership between the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), U.S. Geological Survey, and the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) to communicate concern for drought expansion and intensification within the Northeast U.S. based on recent conditions and the forecasts and outlooks. NIDIS and its partners will issue future drought status updates as conditions evolve.