Drought Status Update and Early Warning Statement for the Southern Plains and Missouri River Basin

Current Conditions and Impacts for the Missouri River Basin and Southern Plains

• Rapid drying will likely cause further drought deterioration and expansion across the Southern Plains and Missouri River Basin states, heighten fire risk, impact harvest, and continue to decrease runoff into the Missouri River, further lowering flows. 
• In Oklahoma, winter wheat is already poor because soil moisture is so low. Many farmers chose not to plant, while others are dry planting in hopes of winter precipitation. 
• Poor winter wheat conditions are expected to develop or continue in Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas.
• Wildfires are active in northeast Oklahoma. The rest of the wildfire season is likely to be high risk in Oklahoma, especially in the panhandle, which received 6–10 inches of rain and had ample vegetation growth in July and August, followed by a warm and relatively dry September. This means there is more vegetation to provide fuel for wildfire, and that vegetation is drying, driving increased fire risk. 
• Six Wyoming Counties received disaster declarations on October 1 due to damage and losses from wildfire. As of October 9, 603 fires have burned more than 760,000 acres in Wyoming.
• Numerous wildfires are active in North Dakota, with over 100,000 acres burned since Friday October 4, 2024. A wet spring and very dry September left fuel loads very dry. High fire risk is predicted throughout October. 
• The following is the total number of weather stations (with a minimum of 30 years of data) throughout the central U.S. that set a new record for the hottest or driest September:

30-Day Percent of Average Precipitation: September 2024

Key Takeaway: For the month of September, which is usually the 4th wettest month of the year for eastern Oklahoma and eastern Texas, rainfall totals were very low. In the north central U.S., North Dakota, Nebraska, and Iowa experienced their driest September on record. Sioux Falls, South Dakota experienced its driest September on record. 

Forecasts and Outlooks

• The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center’s latest monthly and seasonal climate outlooks show increased probabilities for a warmer and drier end to 2024 compared to normal for most of the Southern Plains and Missouri River Basin.
  • A warm and dry end to the year will worsen and expand drought. 
  • Potential impacts include increased wildland fire risk, poor winter wheat yield, and lower reservoir storage for spring.
• The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently neutral. A La Niña watch is in place.
  • ENSO-neutral means neither El Niño nor La Niña is driving current weather patterns.
  • A La Niña pattern is favored to develop in September–November (60% chance) and is expected to persist through January–March 2025. 
  • If La Niña develops, La Niña winters tend to be warmer and drier for Texas, Louisiana, and Oklahoma with a weaker influence in Kansas and Nebraska. La Niña winters also tend to be cooler and sometimes snowier for the far-northern Plains states.  

8-14 Day Outlooks for October 17–23, 2024 

Key Takeaway: Odds strongly favor above-normal temperatures for most of the central U.S. in mid-October. Odds strongly favor below-normal precipitation for the eastern portions of the Southern Plains in mid-October, including regions that already received little-to-no rainfall over the past month.  

October 2024 Temperature Outlook

Key Takeaway:  Odds favor above-normal temperatures for most of the central U.S. for October. 

October 2024 Precipitation Outlook

Key Takeaway:  In October, the Climate Prediction Center’s outlook favors (33%–60% chance) below-normal precipitation for most of the Southern Plains and Missouri River Basin. October is usually one of the wettest months for eastern Texas, with precipitation averages ranging from four to six inches for the month. October precipitation across the Southern Plains is usually reliable for reservoir refill, aquifer recharge, and priming the soil to plant winter wheat.

Seasonal (3-Month) Temperature Outlook: October–December 2024

Key Takeaway:  The last three months of this year are likely to be warmer than normal. The highest odds for warmer-than-normal temperatures from October–December are in far west Texas where there is a 60%–70% chance of above-normal temperatures. The odds decline toward the northeast such that most of eastern Kansas has only a 33%–40% chance of exceeding normal temperatures for the season, and Iowa has an equal chance of above-, near-, or below-normal temperatures. 

Seasonal (3-Month) Precipitation Outlook: October–December 2024

Key Takeaway:  The latest seasonal precipitation outlook for October–December slightly favors lower-than-normal precipitation for Kansas and northeast Oklahoma with odds increasing to 40%–50% for the panhandle regions, southwest Oklahoma, and eastern Texas. Odds for a dry end to the year increase to 50%–60% for western Texas.

Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for October 2024

Key takeaway: There is significant wildland fire potential in many states across the central U.S. Most of Minnesota has above-normal risk of significant wildland fire for October 2024. Parts of Wyoming, South Dakota, Iowa, Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Texas are also at elevated risk for significant wildland fire.  

Resources

• Southern Regional Climate Center
• High Plains Regional Climate Center
• USDA Northern Plains Climate Hub
• Register for upcoming webinars: 
  • The North Central U.S. Climate and Drought Summary & Outlook Webinar on Thursday, October 17 at 1 p.m. CT/12 p.m. MT will provide an overview of climate and drought conditions, impacts, and outlooks in the North Central U.S..
  • The Southern Plains Climate and Drought Update on Tuesday, October 22 at 1 p.m. CT will examine current conditions and the climate outlooks through winter in Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas.
  • The Wyoming Conditions Monitoring Team Conditions and Outlooks Webinar on Thursday, October 17 at 1 p.m. MT will present current climate conditions and outlooks along with a recap of Water Year 2024.
  • The U.S. Drought Monitor Informational Webinar on Thursday, November 14 at 1 p.m. ET will explain the U.S. Drought Monitor, the process behind it, and how people can be part of it.  
• More local information is available from the following resources:
  • Your state climatologist
  • Your state page on Drought.gov
• To report or view local drought impact information:
  • NDMC’s Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) 
  • CoCoRaHS Condition Monitoring Reports 
• Latest U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Update for the Missouri River Basin

Prepared By

Joel Lisonbee, Jason Gerlich, Molly Woloszyn, Adam Lang, Kelsey Satalino, and Eleanor Hasenbeck
Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences/University of Colorado, Boulder and NOAA’s National Integrated Drought Information System

Gary McManus
Oklahoma State Climatologist, Oklahoma Mesonet, Oklahoma Climatological Survey

John Nielsen-Gammon
Texas State Climatologist, Texas State Climate Office, Texas A&M University
Southern Regional Climate Center

Antony R. Bergantino
Director Wyoming State Climate Office, Wyoming State Climate Office, University of Wyoming

Victor Murphy, Audra Bruschi 
National Weather Service

Adam Hartman, Johnna Infanti, Brad Pugh
National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center

Doug Kluck
NOAA/National Centers for Environmental Information

Rezaul Mahmood and Gannon Rush
High Plains Regional Climate Center/University of Nebraska