Drought Status Update for the Northeast

Surface drought conditions improve, but continuing to watch for recovery of groundwater and streamflow.

For more details, see the Northeast Drought Early Warning System Dashboard.

Key Points

Extreme Drought (D3) continued for Boston’s north shore communities.
Severe Drought (D2) persisted for parts of Long Island, southeastern New York, Connecticut, Massachusetts, and a small portion of southeast New Hampshire.
Moderate Drought (D1) and Abnormally Dry (D0) conditions remain in parts of all 7 Northeast DEWS states.

U.S. Drought Monitor Conditions: Northeast | October 4, 2022

U.S. Drought Monitor

Current U.S. Drought Monitor map for the Northeast Drought Early Warning System with data valid for October 4, 2022. The U.S. Drought Monitor is updated each Thursday to show the location and intensity of drought across the country.

According to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor:

Extreme drought (D3) conditions exist in 26% of the region.
Severe drought (D2) conditions exist in 5.13% of the region.
Moderate drought (D1) conditions exist in 11.15% of the region.
Abnormally dry (D0) conditions exist in 16.16% of the region.

Source(s): NDMC, NOAA, USDA

U.S. Drought Monitor Categories

Last Updated: 10/04/22

16.53%

of the Northeast is in drought (D1–D3)

16.16%

of the Northeast is experiencing Abnormally Dry (D0) conditions

3.51%

of Massachusetts is in Extreme Drought (D3)

Current Conditions

U.S. Drought Monitor 4-Week Change Map

Over the past 4 weeks, part of every state in the Northeast has experienced a one to two category drought category improvement. — U.S. Drought Monitor change map, showing where drought and dryness have improved or worsened from September 6–October 4, 2022. Source: National Drought Mitigation Center.

Accumulated Precipitation Departure from Normal

Precipitation deficits at locations across the Northeast have been reduced in recent weeks. — Departure from normal precipitation (inches) for Portland Area, ME (*blue*), Boston Area, MA (*black*), Worcester Area, MA (*light green*), Providence Area, RI (*orange*), Hartford Area, CT (*purple*), Bridgeport Area, CT (*red*), New York - Central Park Area (*yellow*), and Islip Area, NY (*dark green*). Source ACIS.

Monthly Average Potential Evapotranspiration (PET) Estimates (Inches)
Station	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Albany, NY	0.31	0.49	1.17	2.21	3.58	4.05	4.45	3.80	2.47	1.37	0.57	0.30
Allentown, PA	0.44	0.65	1.44	2.46	3.80	4.27	4.69	4.01	2.70	1.65	0.77	0.44
Atlantic City, NJ	0.55	0.77	1.53	2.47	3.83	4.34	4.77	4.13	2.84	1.81	0.90	0.55
Baltimore, MD	0.59	0.83	1.68	2.69	3.96	4.43	4.76	4.11	2.90	1.88	0.96	0.58
Bangor, ME	0.27	0.45	0.98	1.86	3.11	3.56	3.91	3.42	2.20	1.20	0.49	0.27
Beckley, WV	0.49	0.71	1.54	2.59	3.63	4.04	4.20	3.83	2.73	1.78	0.89	0.50
Binghamton, NY	0.26	0.42	1.00	1.93	3.23	3.63	4.00	3.41	2.13	1.22	0.48	0.25
Boston, MA	0.37	0.57	1.15	1.95	3.09	3.58	4.02	3.49	2.29	1.36	0.63	0.37
Bridgeport, CT	0.44	0.63	1.31	2.21	3.41	3.90	4.38	3.76	2.52	1.54	0.74	0.44
Buffalo, NY	0.24	0.40	0.99	1.92	3.26	3.74	4.05	3.43	2.23	1.18	0.47	0.24
Burlington, VT	0.24	0.42	0.97	1.96	3.26	3.74	4.13	3.47	2.18	1.13	0.45	0.23
Caribou, ME	0.17	0.30	0.73	1.51	2.88	3.39	3.64	3.07	1.84	0.89	0.31	0.16
Charleston, WV	0.56	0.84	1.79	2.95	4.07	4.52	4.67	4.22	3.08	2.02	1.01	0.57
Cleveland, OH	0.29	0.48	1.16	2.19	3.54	4.10	4.48	3.73	2.50	1.39	0.58	0.29
Concord, NH	0.33	0.53	1.17	2.20	3.46	3.97	4.42	3.84	2.48	1.42	0.63	0.35
Elkins, WV	0.48	0.71	1.54	2.58	3.68	4.12	4.37	3.95	2.78	1.80	0.88	0.49
Erie, PA	0.26	0.43	1.05	2.05	3.45	4.03	4.39	3.65	2.36	1.27	0.51	0.25
Hartford, CT	0.41	0.61	1.34	2.32	3.57	4.03	4.50	3.86	2.60	1.53	0.71	0.41
Huntington, WV	0.55	0.82	1.79	2.97	4.12	4.57	4.78	4.28	3.11	1.99	0.97	0.55
New York (LaGuardia), NY	0.45	0.66	1.38	2.32	3.58	4.02	4.41	3.78	2.59	1.59	0.75	0.45
Newark, NJ	0.47	0.69	1.45	2.40	3.63	4.06	4.46	3.80	2.64	1.63	0.78	0.46
Philadelphia, PA	0.51	0.73	1.53	2.54	3.85	4.29	4.67	4.06	2.81	1.76	0.86	0.51
Pittsburgh, PA	0.35	0.55	1.32	2.36	3.55	4.03	4.36	3.79	2.61	1.54	0.67	0.35
Portland, ME	0.33	0.52	1.08	1.91	3.09	3.61	4.08	3.54	2.30	1.29	0.58	0.34
Providence, RI	0.42	0.62	1.29	2.14	3.32	3.72	4.15	3.53	2.45	1.49	0.71	0.42
Rochester, NY	0.27	0.43	1.04	2.01	3.42	3.88	4.22	3.56	2.27	1.23	0.50	0.26
Scranton, W-B, PA	0.37	0.58	1.31	2.32	3.65	4.10	4.48	3.80	2.49	1.50	0.67	0.37
Syracuse, NY	0.27	0.43	1.06	2.11	3.52	3.96	4.31	3.64	2.33	1.29	0.51	0.26
Washington, DC	0.61	0.86	1.70	2.73	3.91	4.36	4.66	4.07	2.90	1.89	0.98	0.61
Williamsport, PA	0.38	0.60	1.39	2.42	3.76	4.22	4.54	3.86	2.48	1.53	0.68	0.38
Wilmington, DE	0.52	0.74	1.54	2.55	3.90	4.37	4.77	4.13	2.83	1.77	0.86	0.52
Worcester, MA	0.33	0.51	1.12	2.03	3.20	3.59	4.03	3.49	2.27	1.31	0.59	0.33

Estimates (in inches) of average monthly potential evapotranspiration (PET) for a grass-covered surfaces for sites throughout the Northeast. Average values are based on the period 1981–2010. Source: Northeast Regional Climate Center.

Regional 2-Inch Soil Temperature (°F): October 5, 2022

2-inch soil temperatures are at or below 53 degrees F in most of the Northeast. Temperatures above 55 degrees are observed in coastal Massachusetts. — Two-inch soil temperature (°F) for October 5, 2022. Source: ACIS.

State-Reported Impacts

Connecticut

October 4, 2022: Governor Lamont Announces Eligibility for Federal Disaster Assistance Due to Drought Impacts in All Eight Counties
October 4, 2022: NBC CT – Voluntary Water Restrictions In Bristol
September 28, 2022: WTNH News8 – Drought Connected to Disease in White-Tail Deer

Maine

October 5, 2022: Maine Fall Foliage Report
October 2, 2022: The Maine Monitor – Wild Blueberry Harvest Suffered

Outlooks

According to the Climate Prediction Center's 8–14 day outlook (valid October 13–19, 2022), odds favor below-normal temperatures in western New York and near-normal temperatures in the rest of the Northeast. Near-normal precipitation is favored across the region.
The week 3–4 outlook (valid October 15–28, 2022) favors above-normal temperatures for Maine and northern Vermont and New Hampshire, with equal chances of above- or below-normal conditions elsewhere. There is a greater likelihood of below-normal precipitation for all of New York, as well as eastern Vermont, Massachusetts, and Connecticut. The rest of the Northeast has equal chances of above- or below-normal precipitation.

8–14 Day Temperature Outlook

From October 13 to 19, odds favor below-normal temperatures in western New York and near-normal temperatures in the rest of the region. — NOAA Climate Prediction Center 8–14 day temperature outlook for the Northeast, showing the probability of above-normal, below-normal, or normal conditions from October 13–19, 2022. Source: Climate Prediction Center via the Northeast DEWS Dashboard.

8–14 Day Precipitation Outlook

From October 13 to 19, odds favor near-normal precipitation across the Northeast. — NOAA Climate Prediction Center 8–14 day precipitation outlook for the Northeast, showing the probability of above-normal, below-normal, or normal conditions from October 13–19. Source: Climate Prediction Center via the Northeast DEWS Dashboard.

Temperature Outlook Week 3–4

From October 15–28, 2022, odds favor above-normal temperatures for Maine and northern Vermont and New Hampshire, with equal chances elsewhere. — NOAA Climate Prediction Center week 3–4 temperature outlook for the Northeast, showing the probability of above-normal or below-normal conditions from October 15–28, 2022. Issued September 30, 2022. Source: Climate Prediction Center.

Precipitation Outlook Week 3–4

From October 15–28, 2022, odds favor below-normal precipitation in New York, as well as eastern portions of Vermont, Connecticut, and Massachusetts. — NOAA Climate Prediction Center week 3–4 precipitation outlook for the Northeast, showing the probability of above-normal or below-normal conditions from October 15–28, 2022. Issued September 30, 2022. Source: Climate Prediction Center.

Featured Resources

Register for the Northeast DEWS Partners Meeting on November 1–2 in Glen Falls, New York.
Webinar Recap: Drought Prediction: Water Availability Prediction for Ecosystems
- Register for the National Listening Session Series Key Takeaways and Next Steps: Drought Prediction and Water Availability
USGS Groundwater Levels in New England: Recent conditions relative to historical monthly statistics
Climate Smart Farming Tools website from the Cornell University Agricultural and Life Sciences Department

Additional Resources

Look back at previous Northeast DEWS Drought Status Updates
Your local National Weather Service office
NOAA Regional Climate Services Monthly Webinar Series (next webinar is on October 27)
USDA Northeast Climate Hub
USGS New England and New York Water Science Centers

Contacts for More Information

Sylvia Reeves
Regional Drought Information Coordinator (Northeast DEWS)
NOAA/CIRES/National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS)
Email: sylvia.reeves@noaa.gov

Ellen L. Mecray
Regional Climate Services Director, Eastern Region
NOAA/NESDIS/National Centers for Environmental Information
Email: Ellen.L.Mecray@noaa.gov

Prepared By

Sylvia Reeves
NOAA/National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS), CIRES

Samantha Borisoff, Jessica Spaccio, Keith Eggleston, Art DeGaetano
Northeast Regional Climate Center

Ellen Mecray
Regional Climate Services Director, Eastern Region, NOAA

David Hollinger
USDA Climate Hubs

Gardner Bent
USGS New England Water Science Center

In partnership with National Weather Service Offices of the Northeast and State Climate Offices of the Northeast.

Special Thanks

This drought status update is issued in partnership between the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), U.S. Geological Survey, and the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) to communicate concern for drought expansion and intensification within the Northeast U.S. based on recent conditions and the forecasts and outlooks. NIDIS and its partners will issue future drought status updates as conditions evolve.