Drought Status Update for the Northeast

Groundwater improvements will have to wait until spring for areas with frozen soils and snow cover.

Key Points

Severe Drought (D2) persisted for communities north of Boston, as of the December 6 U.S. Drought Monitor.
Moderate Drought (D1) and Abnormally Dry (D0) conditions remained for portions of Connecticut, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Vermont, the counties just north of New York City and for all of Long Island.
Since groundwater recharge tends to slow in winter, areas with below normal groundwater levels are expected to show little improvement through winter.
If the winter snowpack is below normal, there may also be concerns around recharge and drought in 2023.

U.S. Drought Monitor Conditions: Northeast | December 6, 2022

U.S. Drought Monitor

Current U.S. Drought Monitor map for the Northeast Drought Early Warning System with data valid for December 6, 2022. The U.S. Drought Monitor is updated each Thursday to show the location and intensity of drought across the country.

According to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor:

Severe drought (D2) conditions exists in 0.24% of the region.
Moderate drought (D1) conditions exist in 2.90% of the region.
Abnormally dry (D0) conditions exist in 13.69% of the region.

Source(s): NDMC, NOAA, USDA

U.S. Drought Monitor Categories

Last Updated: 12/06/22

13.69%

of the Northeast is Abnormally Dry (D0)

3.14%

of the northeast is in Moderate (D1) to Severe (D2) Drought

3.36%

of Massachusetts is in Extreme Drought (D3)

Current Conditions

U.S. Drought Monitor 4-Week Change Map

From November 8 to December 6, parts of western New York saw a 1-category improvement in drought/dryness. Eastern Massachusetts saw a 1-category degradation. — U.S. Drought Monitor change map, showing where drought and dryness have improved or worsened from November 8–December 6, 2022. Source: National Drought Mitigation Center.

Accumulated Precipitation Departure from Normal

Precipitation deficits continue for locations across the Northeast, with a deficit of over 12 inches of precipitation in Boston. — Departure from normal precipitation (inches) for Portland Area, ME (*blue*), Concord Area, NH (*black*), Boston Area, MA (*green*), Providence Area, RI (*orange*), Bridgeport Area, CT (*purple*), Islip Area, NY (*red*), and Rochester Area, NY (*yellow*). Source: ACIS.

Northeast Seasonal Snowfall Averages (1991–2020)

Normal annual snowfall totals (inches) for the Northeast. — Normal annual snowfall totals (inches) for the Northeast, over the period 1991–2020. Access New York and New England Snow Survey data starting in January and running through early May. Source: Northeast Regional Climate Center.

New USGS Guide on Drought Preparedness and Decision Making

Winter is a great time to review and update drought plans for next year. The USGS has just released a report that will help with preparedness, drought mitigation and decision support around the allocation of resilience funding: Rapidly Assessing Social Characteristics of Drought Preparedness and Decision Making: A Guide for Practitioners.

State-Reported Drought Conditions and Impacts

Connecticut

Connecticut Drought Information Center
Drought Impacts:
- December 7, 2022: Fox61 – Weather Extremes Hurting Christmas Tree Farms
- December 2, 2022: The Register Citizen – Bethel Voters Approve Water Treatment Project
- November 28, 2022: The Journal Inquirer – Christmas Tree Seedlings Take a Hit

Maine

Maine Drought Task Force
Drought Impacts:
- December 1, 2022: Bangor Daily News (BDN) – Biochar, Blueberries, and Drought

Rhode Island

Rhode Island Water Resources Board: Drought Management Program
Drought Impacts:
- November 28, 2022: ABC News 6 – Christmas Tree Farm Recovers from Drought
- November 23, 2022: WPRI.com – Christmas Trees, Drought, Pests, and Predators

Vermont

State of Vermont Emergency Operations Plan (PDF)
Agency of Natural Resources – Reminder on applications for funding assistance to replace water or wastewater system

Find additional impacts through the National Drought Mitigation Center’s Drought Impact Reporter.

Find local drought information by address, city or zip code on Drought.gov.

Outlooks

Seasonal Drought Outlook: December 2022–February 2023

Despite dropping temperatures and frequent precipitation events, areas in the proximity of the Boston and New York City population centers continue to experience long-term drought conditions. Long-term drought typically persists for periods of 6 months or greater and impacts ecosystems and hydrological systems. The Climate Prediction Center's November 30 outlook (valid December–February) hinted at the possibility of a one-category improvement for drought conditions in proximity to these areas.

This seasonal outlook is adjusted each month and will be updated on December 15, 2022.

Areas of drought in New York and Massachusetts are likely to improve or be removed from December to January. — Seasonal (3-month) drought outlook for the Northeast U.S., predicting where drought will persist, develop, improve, or be removed from December 1, 2022 to February 28, 2023. Source: Climate Prediction Center.

Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks

According to the Climate Prediction Center's 8–14 day outlook (valid December 20–26, 2022), odds favor below-normal temperatures across the Northeast. Near-normal precipitation is most likely for the entire region except far-western New York, where below-normal precipitation is favored.

8–14 Day Precipitation Outlook: December 20–26

Except for far-western New York, odds favor near-normal precipitation across the Northeast from December 20 to 26. — NOAA Climate Prediction Center 8–14 day precipitation outlook for the Northeast, showing the probability of above-normal, below-normal, or normal conditions from December 20–26, 2022. Source: Climate Prediction Center via the Northeast DEWS Dashboard.

8–14 Day Temperature Outlook: December 20–26

Odds favor below-normal temperatures across the Northeast from December 20 to 26. — NOAA Climate Prediction Center 8–14 day temperature outlook for the Northeast, showing the probability of above-normal, below-normal, or normal conditions from December 20–26, 2022. Source: Climate Prediction Center via the Northeast DEWS Dashboard.

The week 3–4 outlook (valid December 24, 2022–January 6, 2023) favors above-normal temperatures from central Vermont, Massachusetts, and Connecticut, eastward, with the highest probabilities in Maine. To the west of this region, there are equal chances of above- and below-normal temperatures. Above-normal precipitation, meanwhile, is favored for the entire Northeast.

Western New York’s outlook for wetter than normal fits with expectations for our third La Niña winter. Learn more in this webinar, or view the December 2022 El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) update from Climate.gov.

Week 3–4 Precipitation Outlook

Odds favor above-normal precipitation across the Northeast from December 24 to January 6. — NOAA Climate Prediction Center week 3–4 precipitation outlook for the Northeast, showing the probability of above-normal or below-normal conditions from December 24, 2022–January 6, 2023. Issued December 9, 2022. Source: Climate Prediction Center.

Week 3–4 Temperature Outlook

Odds favor above-normal temperature from central Vermont to Maine, from December 24 to January 6. — NOAA Climate Prediction Center week 3–4 temperature outlook for the Northeast, showing the probability of above-normal or below-normal conditions from December 24, 2022–January 6, 2023. Issued December 9, 2022. Source: Climate Prediction Center.

What We Are Watching

Massachusetts Drought Decision Support Dashboard

Massachusetts will present an overview of their Drought Decision Support Dashboard on December 15 as a part of the Northeast Regional Climate Center's monthly webinar. Register here.

Resources

The Northeast DEWS Partners meeting resources list is still available.
November 15, 2022: HER CAMPUS – Eco-Anxiety: Keep Calm And Carry On
Look back at previous Northeast DEWS Drought Status Updates
Your local National Weather Service office
NOAA Regional Climate Services Monthly Webinar Series (next webinar is on December 15)
USDA Northeast Climate Hub
USGS New England and New York Water Science Centers

Contacts for More Information

Sylvia Reeves
Regional Drought Information Coordinator (Northeast DEWS)
NOAA/CIRES/National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS)
Email: sylvia.reeves@noaa.gov

Ellen L. Mecray
Regional Climate Services Director, Eastern Region
NOAA/NESDIS/National Centers for Environmental Information
Email: Ellen.L.Mecray@noaa.gov

Prepared By

Sylvia Reeves
NOAA/National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS), CIRES

Samantha Borisoff, Jessica Spaccio, Keith Eggleston, Art DeGaetano
Northeast Regional Climate Center

Ellen Mecray
Regional Climate Services Director, Eastern Region, NOAA

David Hollinger
USDA Climate Hubs

Gardner Bent
USGS New England Water Science Center

In partnership with National Weather Service Offices of the Northeast and State Climate Offices of the Northeast.

Special Thanks

This drought status update is issued in partnership between the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), U.S. Geological Survey, and the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) to communicate concern for drought expansion and intensification within the Northeast U.S. based on recent conditions and the forecasts and outlooks. NIDIS and its partners will issue future drought status updates as conditions evolve.