Drought Status Update for the Northeast

Abnormally dry (D0) conditions drop to less than 2% coverage in the region. The lack of snow is still a concern.

Key Points:

On the U.S. Drought Monitor, abnormally dry (D0) conditions remain only in small portions of central New York (just south of Lake Ontario) and across the eastern two-thirds of Long Island.
This week’s snowfall and rainfall have been helpful, but seasonal snowfall deficits remain a concern. (Please see the Accumulated Snowfall Departure From Normal chart and the Snowfall Departure map below.)
Frozen ground in the northernmost portions of New York and New England makes it difficult to assess the full impact of precipitation events from the last two months.
State drought task forces and monitoring committees are using this time to review plans and response activities of the previous year in preparation for future drought episodes.

U.S. Drought Monitor | Northeast

Northeast DEWS

Current U.S. Drought Monitor map for the Northeast Drought Early Warning System (DEWS) with data valid for February 21, 2023. The U.S. Drought Monitor is updated each Thursday to show the location and intensity of drought across the country.

According to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor:

1.94% of the Northeast is experiencing Abnormally Dry (D0) conditions
0% of the Northeast is in drought (D1–D4)

Source(s): NDMC, NOAA, USDA

U.S. Drought Monitor Categories

Data valid: 02/21/23

Current Conditions

Water Year 2023 Snowfall Departure (Inches)

From the start of the water year (October 1, 2022), snowfall is below normal across most of the Northeast, with deficits of more than 24 inches in some areas. — Snowfall departure from normal (in inches) since the start of the water year (October 1, 2022–February 22, 2023). Access New York and New England Snow Survey data. Source: Northeast Regional Climate Center.

Snowfall Totals Compared to Normal
Location	Oct. 1, 2022 – Feb. 22, 2023 Snowfall (in.)	Normal (in.)	Departure from Normal (in.)	Rank (Least Snowy)
Syracuse, NY	43.6	98.7	-55.1	14
Rochester, NY	23.3	76.1	-52.8	2
Worcester, MA	19.9	53.3	-33.4	10
Hartford, CT	9.9	38.4	-28.5	6
Boston, MA	8.5	35.9	-27.4	5
Bridgeport, CT	0.8	23.7	-22.9	1
Burlington, VT	39.0	61.8	-22.8
Providence, RI	4.9	27.7	-22.8	4
Binghamton, NY	39.5	62.0	-22.5	8
Islip, NY	0.7	23.1	-22.4	1
Central Park, NY	0.4	22.6	-22.2	1
LaGuardia Airport, NY	0.6	22.2	-21.6
Portland, ME	29.4	48.9	-19.5	16
Kennedy Airport, NY	0.2	19.5	-19.3	1
Albany, NY	27.4	42.4	-15.0
Concord, NH	36.0	48.1	-12.1
Caribou, ME	96.8	82.1	14.7	17 snowiest
Buffalo, NY	118.7	75.2	43.5	5 snowiest

Snowfall departures in selected cities across the Northeast DEWS region are in the double digits, with some New York state sites experiencing their least snowy winters between the dates of October 1 and February 22. Yellow shading indicates record low snowfall, while blue indicates locations with above-normal snowfall. Source: ACIS.

Accumulated Snowfall Departure from Normal

Departure from normal snowfall (inches) for Syracuse Hancock International Airport, NY (blue), Boston Logan International Airport, MA (black), Caribou WFO, ME (green), Islip–Long Island Macarthur Airport, NY (orange), Concord Municipal Airport, NH (purple), and Rhode Island T.F. Green International Airport, RI. Source: ACIS. — Departure from normal snowfall (inches) for Syracuse Hancock International Airport, NY (*blue*), Boston Logan International Airport, MA (*black*), Caribou WFO, ME (*green*), Islip–Long Island Macarthur Airport, NY (*orange*), and Rhode Island T.F. Green International Airport (*purple)*, RI. Source: ACIS.

State-Reported Conditions and Impacts

Rhode Island

Rhode Island Water Resources Board: Drought Management Program
Drought Impacts:
- February 6, 2023: EcoRI News – More On Controlled Burns on State Land
- February 3, 2023: Patch – Planned Burns To Reduce Wildfire Risk
- February 3, 2023: East Bay Media Group – More On Prescribed Fires

Vermont

Vermont Agency of Natural Resources, Department of Environmental Conservation: Drought and Other Hazards

Find additional impacts through the National Drought Mitigation Center’s Drought Impact Reporter.

Find local drought information by address, city or zip code on Drought.gov.

Outlooks

According to the Climate Prediction Center's 8–14 day outlooks (valid March 1–7), odds favor near-normal temperatures across the Northeast, except for far-western New York, where odds slightly favor above-normal temperatures. There is a greater likelihood of above-normal precipitation across the region.
The week 3–4 outlook (valid March 4–17, 2023) favors above-normal precipitation for central and western New York, with equal chances of above- or below-normal precipitation in the rest of the region. Below-normal temperatures, meanwhile, are favored for the entire Northeast.

8–14 Day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks

From March 1 to 7, odds favor near-normal temperatures across the Northeast, except for far-western New York, where above-normal conditions are slightly favored. — Near-normal temperatures are expected for northern portions of the Northeast DEWS region for this time period. Southern New England and most of New York will lean toward warmer conditions. Source: Climate Prediction Center via the Northeast DEWS Dashboard.

From March 1 to 7, odds favor above-normal precipitation across the Northeast. — Precipitation chances are favored to be above normal, raising hopes for the opportunity to impact the snowfall deficit in some areas. Source: Climate Prediction Center via the Northeast DEWS Dashboard.

Week 3–4 Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks

From March 4–17, odds favor below-normal temperatures across the Northeast. — For the more extended period of three to four weeks, the entire Northeast DEWS region may see some below-normal temperatures, but only western New York state is expected to see an opportunity for above-normal precipitation. Source: Climate Prediction Center.

From March 4 to 17, odds favor above-normal precipitation for central and western New York, with equal chances in the rest of the Northeast. — NOAA Climate Prediction Center week 3–4 precipitation outlook for the Northeast, showing the probability of above-normal or below-normal conditions from March 4–17, 2023. Issued February 17, 2023. Source: Climate Prediction Center.

What We Are Watching

Northeast Region Climate Services Webinar: Register now for the Northeast Region Climate Services Webinar on Tuesday, February 28. The special topic for this webinar is Climate Projections.
Linking Drought, Wildfires, and Air Pollution Across the U.S.: As droughts, and thus wildfire risk, become more frequent with the trend of climate warming, it is important to be able to predict how these phenomena will impact pollution in the future. A recent study, funded in part by the NOAA Climate Program Office’s Atmospheric Chemistry, Carbon Cycle and Climate (AC4) Program, uses a drought index (a dataset designed to take into account both precipitation and evapotranspiration) to determine the likelihood of drought, to explore the relationship between PM2.5 and drought across the continental U.S.
Drought and Prescribed Fire: Read this December 2022 report on the demand for prescribed fire on private lands in the Mid-Atlantic (includes New York state).
Drought Monitoring and Plant Stress: February 8, 2023: Cell Press – Stress Biomarkers For Drought
Drought and Mental Health: February 10, 2023: FOX Business News – Farmers’ Mental Health Crisis

Featured Resources

National Interagency Coordination Center Fire Dashboard
Story Maps: Eastern Area Coordination Center Short-Term Outlook and Long-Term Assessment

Additional Resources

Look back at previous Northeast DEWS Drought Status Updates
Your local National Weather Service office
NOAA Regional Climate Services Monthly Webinar Series (next webinar is on February 28)
USDA Northeast Climate Hub
USGS New England and New York Water Science Centers

Contacts for More Information

Sylvia Reeves
Regional Drought Information Coordinator (Northeast DEWS)
NOAA/CIRES/National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS)
Email: sylvia.reeves@noaa.gov

Ellen L. Mecray
Regional Climate Services Director, Eastern Region
NOAA/NESDIS/National Centers for Environmental Information
Email: Ellen.L.Mecray@noaa.gov

Prepared By

Sylvia Reeves
NOAA/National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS), CIRES

Samantha Borisoff, Jessica Spaccio, Keith Eggleston, Art DeGaetano
Northeast Regional Climate Center

Ellen Mecray
Regional Climate Services Director, Eastern Region, NOAA

Gardner Bent
USGS New England Water Science Center

In partnership with National Weather Service Offices of the Northeast and State Climate Offices of the Northeast.

Special Thanks

This drought status update is issued in partnership between the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), U.S. Geological Survey, and the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) to communicate concern for drought expansion and intensification within the Northeast U.S. based on recent conditions and the forecasts and outlooks. NIDIS and its partners will issue future drought status updates as conditions evolve.