Drought Status Update for the Northeast

New York and New England Remain Drought Free, but Abnormal Dryness Lingers on Long Island.

Key Points:

New England and New York state are free of drought.
Abnormally Dry conditions (D0) persist on the eastern two-thirds of Long Island.
Seasonal snowfall deficits remain a concern for spring fire risk, as well as warm season drought potential.
The National Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook expects near-normal significant fire potential for much of the eastern U.S. in March–June.

U.S. Drought Monitor | Northeast

Northeast DEWS

Current U.S. Drought Monitor map for the Northeast Drought Early Warning System (DEWS) with data valid for March 21, 2023. The U.S. Drought Monitor is updated each Thursday to show the location and intensity of drought across the country.

According to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor:

0.8% of the Northeast is experiencing Abnormally Dry (D0) conditions
0% of the Northeast is in drought (D1–D4)

Source(s): NDMC, NOAA, USDA

U.S. Drought Monitor Categories

Data valid: 02/21/23

Current Conditions

Water Year 2023 Snowfall Departure (Inches)

From the start of the water year (October 1, 2022), snowfall is below normal across most of the Northeast, except for parts of New York, New Hampshire, Vermont, and southern Maine. — Snowfall departure from normal (in inches) since the start of the water year (October 1, 2022–March 22, 2023). Access New York and New England Snow Survey data. Source: Northeast Regional Climate Center.

Snowfall Totals Compared to Normal
Location	Oct. 1, 2022–Mar. 22, 2023 Snowfall (in.)	Normal (in.)	Departure (in.)	Rank (least snowy)
Syracuse, NY	65.3	121.4	-56.1	19
Rochester, NY	49.4	95.6	-46.2	13
Boston, MA	12.4	46.0	-33.6	4
Bridgeport, CT	4.9	31.5	-26.6	1*
Central Park, NY	2.3	28.6	-26.3	1
LaGuardia Airport, NY	3.4	28.5	-25.1	3
Hartford, CT	24.2	49.1	-24.9
Islip, NY	5.0	29.9	-24.9	5
Providence, RI	11.6	35.0	-23.4	6
Kennedy Airport, NY	2.1	24.6	-22.5	2
Worcester, MA	47.2	68.5	-21.3
Binghamton, NY	59.5	79.3	-19.8	15
Burlington, VT	71.7	80.0	-8.3
Portland, ME	56.2	63.2	-7.0
Albany, NY	54.8	55.4	-0.6
Concord, NH	63.7	62.5	1.2
Caribou, ME	115.0	104.1	10.9
Buffalo, NY	133.3	90.3	43.0	5 snowiest

Snowfall departures in selected cities across the Northeast DEWS region are in the double digits, with Bridgeport, CT and Central Park, NY experiencing their least snowy winters between the dates of October 1 and March 22. Yellow shading indicates record low snowfall, while blue indicates locations with above-normal snowfall. *Bridgeport, CT is missing snow data on 3/14. Source: ACIS.

Snow Water Equivalent for March 12–16, 2023

For March 12 to 16, snow water equivalent (SWE) is 3 to 9+ inches at most stations across Maine — This map represents the water equivalent of the snowpack (in inches) as measured at survey sites around New York and New England for March 12–16, 2023. Snow surveys are taken every two weeks from early January to as late as early May, depending on the existence of a significant snowpack. Source: Northeast Regional Climate Center.

Accumulated Snowfall Departure from Normal

Departure from normal snowfall (inches) for locations across the Northeast. Snowfall is below normal at New York Central Park, Providence, Burlington, Boston, and Syracuse. — Departure from normal snowfall (inches) for Caribou Area, ME (*blue*), Boston Area, MA (*black*), Providence Area, RI (*green*), Burlington Area, VT (*orange*), New York Central Park Area, NY (*purple)*, and Syracuse Area, NY *(red)*. Source: ACIS.

State-Reported Conditions and Impacts

Rhode Island

Rhode Island Water Resources Board: Drought Management Program
Impacts:
- March 16, 2023: The Providence Journal – National Weather Service: Precipitation Monitors Needed (See CoCoRaHS request for volunteers below.)

Vermont

Vermont Agency of Natural Resources, Department of Environmental Conservation: Drought and Other Hazards
Impacts:
- March 13, 2023: Burlington Free Press – Maple Syrup

Northeast

Volunteers are needed to measure precipitation! CoCoRaHS (the Community Collaborative Rain, Hail, and Snow Network) is a non-profit, community-based network of volunteer weather observers of all ages and backgrounds who measure and report precipitation. These data help improve the accuracy of weather forecasts, contribute to real-time drought and flood monitoring, are used in research applications, and so much more. Ready to help? Go to www.cocorahs.org and click the “Join CoCoRaHS” button in the upper right corner.

Find additional impacts through the National Drought Mitigation Center’s Drought Impact Reporter.

Find local drought information by address, city or zip code on Drought.gov.

Outlooks

8–14 Day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks

According to the Climate Prediction Center's 8–14 day outlooks (valid March 30–April 5):
- Temperatures across the region are expected to be below normal for the period (offering the possibility for some improvement to the snowfall deficits).
- Precipitation is expected to be above normal for all but the extreme northernmost portions of Maine. With a low snow winter almost in the record books, this could help reduce the brush fire risk for a few weeks.

From March 30 to April 5, odds favor below-normal temperatures across the Northeast. — 8–14 day temperature outlook, showing the probability (percent chance) of above-, below-, or near-normal temperatures across the Northeast from March 30–April 5. Source: Climate Prediction Center via the Northeast DEWS Dashboard.

From March 30 to April 5, odds favor above-normal precipitation across the Northeast, except for far-eastern Maine, where near-normal conditions are favored. — 8–14 day precipitation outlook, showing the probability (percent chance) of above-, below-, or near-normal temperatures across the Northeast from March 30–April 5. Source: Climate Prediction Center via the Northeast DEWS Dashboard.

Week 3–4 Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks

According to the week 3–4 outlook (valid April 1–14, 2023):

Lower confidence and predictability exists with the transition to spring, but there are equal chances for above- or below-normal temperatures.
Slightly above-normal precipitation could be expected for southern New England and southeastern New York, with equal chances for above- or below-normal precipitation elsewhere in the region. Lower outlook confidence remains the key point as spring conditions are defined by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) transition (La Niña to Neutral and then a possible El Niño status by late spring or summer).
Longer range models and statistical guidance are mixed in terms of expected outcomes for weather patterns, temperature, and precipitation.

From April 1–14, there are equal chance of above- or below-normal temperatures across the Northeast. — Week 3–4 temperature outlook, showing the probability (percent chance) of above- or below-normal temperatures across the U.S. from April 1–14. Issued March 17, 2023. Source: Climate Prediction Center.

From April 1–14, odds favor above-normal precipitation for Connecticut, Rhode Island, most of Massachusetts, and southern New York/Long Island. Elsewhere, there are equal chances of above- or below-normal conditions. — Week 3–4 precipitation outlook, showing the probability (percent chance) of above- or below-normal precipitation across the U.S. from April 1–14. Issued March 17, 2023. Source: Climate Prediction Center.

U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook: March 16–June 30, 2023

There is moderate confidence that the Northeast will remain drought free for the period due to shorter-range forecasts and outlooks for cooler and wetter conditions.

Drought is not predicted to develop in the Northeast for March 16–June 30, 2023. — Seasonal (3-month) drought outlook, showing where drought is predicted to persist, improve, be removed, or develop from March 16–June 30, 2023. Drought is not expected to develop in the Northeast. Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center, via Drought.gov.

What We Are Watching

USGS 2022 Drought in New England Report
- The U.S. Geological Survey New England Water Science Center recently published a Scientific Investigations Report entitled “2022 Drought in New England,” which documents the hydrologic conditions during the short but intense drought last summer.
- USGS will host a webinar on Friday, April 7 from 12:00-1:00 pm where the authors of the report will present on the hydrologic conditions documented in the report, from both a regional and state-wide perspective, highlighting record low streamflow and groundwater levels that occurred at USGS stream gauges and monitoring wells. Join the meeting.
Check out this recent Axios article: "Winters Warming Faster Than Our Summers"
Save the date for the NIHHIS annual meeting on April 25–27, 2023.
NIDIS is hosting the 2nd National Flash Drought Workshop May 2–4, 2023 in Boulder, Colorado. Register here.
Coming Soon: State of the Science Synthesis On Transformational Drought. This research is concluding, soon with project papers and a report in progress.
Save the date for the 2023 Northeast-Midwest Prescribed Fire Workshop on August 29–31 in Madison, Wisconsin.

Featured Resources

American Water Works Association: Designing and Evaluating Effective and Ongoing Drought Communication
National Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook: March–June 2023

Additional Resources

Look back at previous Northeast DEWS Drought Status Updates
Your local National Weather Service office
NOAA Regional Climate Services Monthly Webinar Series (next webinar is on March 30)
USDA Northeast Climate Hub
USGS New England and New York Water Science Centers

Contacts for More Information

Sylvia Reeves
Regional Drought Information Coordinator (Northeast DEWS)
NOAA/CIRES/National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS)
Email: sylvia.reeves@noaa.gov

Ellen L. Mecray
Regional Climate Services Director, Eastern Region
NOAA/NESDIS/National Centers for Environmental Information
Email: Ellen.L.Mecray@noaa.gov

Prepared By

Sylvia Reeves
NOAA/National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS), CIRES

Samantha Borisoff, Jessica Spaccio, Keith Eggleston, Art DeGaetano
Northeast Regional Climate Center

Ellen Mecray
Regional Climate Services Director, Eastern Region, NOAA

Gardner Bent
USGS New England Water Science Center

In partnership with National Weather Service Offices of the Northeast and State Climate Offices of the Northeast.

Special Thanks

This drought status update is issued in partnership between the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), U.S. Geological Survey, and the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) to communicate concern for drought expansion and intensification within the Northeast U.S. based on recent conditions and the forecasts and outlooks. NIDIS and its partners will issue future drought status updates as conditions evolve.