Drought Status Update for the Northeast

Drought Persists in Western New York; No Drought in New England as We Approach Winter.

Key Points:

According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, 22% of New York state is experiencing Abnormally Dry (D0) conditions or is in drought. Drought has been a persistent feature in western parts of the state since early summer.
Severe Drought (D2) and Moderate Drought (D1) comprise a stubbornly consistent bullseye in western New York. This area has received only scattered and lighter amounts of precipitation in the past few weeks with stream flows and groundwater levels still showing deficits.
The Climate Prediction Center's Seasonal Drought Outlook calls for improvement in western New York, with near-normal temperatures and precipitation for the entire region over the next 3–4 weeks.
Abnormal Dryness (D0) did expand eastward into the Finger Lakes counties with some significant (tight) west to east precipitation gradients from recent rains. Eastward expansion of this dryness may be blunted by those rains, but streamflows and groundwater status in all of western New York should be monitored.
For the past few weeks, Abnormal Dryness (D0) has persisted along the Canadian border in northern New York.
A Condition Monitoring Observer Report (CMOR) from Erie County, New York on October 22 comments on low water levels in streams, ponds, and creeks and warmer water temperatures that are impacting some fish species. However, the report states that fall progression (color change and leaf drop) appears normal.

U.S. Drought Monitor | Northeast

Northeast DEWS

Current U.S. Drought Monitor map for the Northeast Drought Early Warning System (DEWS) with data valid for October 24, 2023. The U.S. Drought Monitor is updated each Thursday to show the location and intensity of drought across the country.

According to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor:

8.1% of the Northeast is experiencing Abnormally Dry (D0) conditions
1.3% of the Northeast is in drought (D1–D2)

Source(s): NDMC, NOAA, USDA

U.S. Drought Monitor Categories

Data valid: 10/24/23

Current Conditions

Accumulated Precipitation Departure from Normal: New York

Western New York has received little precipitation in the past few weeks. The accumulated precipitation departure from normal chart for sites between Buffalo and Aurora, New York depicts deficits between 1 to 5 inches.

The accumulated precipitation departure from normal chart for sites between Buffalo and Aurora, New York depicts deficits between 1 to 5 inches. — Departure from normal precipitation (inches) for the following New York sites: Buffalo Area (*blue*), Warsaw 6 SW (*black*), Dansville (*green*), Penn Yan Airport (*orange*), and Aurora Research Farm (*purple)*. Source: ACIS.

28-Day Streamflow Conditions: New York

28-day average streamflows are below normal at several sites in far-western New York, where drought and dryness persist. — 28-day average streamflows for New York state, compared to historical conditions for the same time period. Valid October 25, 2023. Source: U.S. Geological Survey WaterWatch.

New England Groundwater Levels

Groundwater levels are normal to above normal across much of the Northeast. The exception in western New York, state, where groundwater levels are below normal at several sites. — U.S. Geological Survey groundwater data for New England, showing the percentile of the most recently measured groundwater levels relative to long-term monthly statistics. Updated September 28, 2023. Source: U.S. Geological Survey via the Northeast DEWS Dashboard.

State-Reported Conditions and Impacts

Rhode Island

Rhode Island Water Resources Board: Drought Management Program

Vermont

Vermont Agency of Natural Resources, Department of Environmental Conservation: Drought and Other Hazards

Northeast U.S.

Northeast Drought Early Warning System Dashboard
Impacts:
- October 23, 2023: Time – Artificially Cooling Rivers To Protect Fish
- October 16, 2023: Spectrum1 News – Fall’s Freeze-Free Days Are Adding Up

Find additional impacts through the National Drought Mitigation Center’s Drought Impact Reporter.

Find local drought information by address, city or zip code on Drought.gov.

Outlooks

Week 3–4 Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks

According to the week 3–4 outlook (valid November 4–17, 2023), there are equal chances of above- or below-normal temperatures and above- or below-normal precipitation across the Northeast.

There are equal chances of above- or below-normal temperatures across the Northeast. — Week 3–4 temperature outlook, showing the probability (percent chance) of above- or below-normal temperature across the U.S. from November 4–17, 2023. Issued October 20, 2023. Source: NOAA's Climate Prediction Center.

There are equal chances of above- or below-normal precipitation across the Northeast. — Week 3–4 precipitation outlook, showing the probability (percent chance) of above- or below-normal precipitation across the U.S. from November 4–17, 2023. Issued October 20, 2023. Source: Climate Prediction Center.

U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook: October 19, 2023–January 31, 2024

The Seasonal Drought Outlook indicates that drought removal is likely for western New York.

From October 19 to January 31, drought removal is projected for western New York. — Seasonal (3-month) drought outlook, showing where drought is predicted to persist, improve, be removed, or develop from October 19,2023–January 31, 2024. Drought removal is projected for western New York. Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center, via Drought.gov.

What We Are Watching

As we approach snow season, don’t forget to bookmark the regional Snow Survey Map on the Northeast Regional Climate center website.
Explore seasonal and monthly maps of decadal snowfall trends, dry steak occurrence trends, and more from the National Drought Mitigation Center:
- Analysis finds changing snow, precipitation trends in the Northeast
- Changing Characteristics of Precipitation and Drought in the Northeast U.S.
October 18, 2023: The Washington Post – The Canadian Wildfire Season

Upcoming Events & Featured Resources

NOAA Eastern Region Climate Services Monthly Webinar
- Tuesday, October 31, 2023 at 9:30 a.m. ET
- The NOAA Eastern Region Climate Services webinar will focus on climate change and agriculture. Register here.
UNMC Water, Climate & Health Program Research Seminar Series: Drought and Public Health: A Roadmap for Advancing Engagement, and Preparedness
- Monday, October 30, 2023 at 1 p.m ET/12 p.m. CT
- Register here to learn more about the evolution of the Drought and Public Health Roadmap and how public health departments, medical practitioners, and any agency tasked with drought response and mitigation can use the Roadmap.
NOAA Boulder Seeks Intern to Support Outreach to Tribal Communities
Water Aware: Junior Tribal Hydrologist Program
Dry Times: View the October 18 edition of NIDIS's bi-weekly drought newsletter.
Dry Horizons: View the October 2023 edition of the National Drought Mitigation Center's drought newsletter.
View the latest El Niño information from Climate.gov.
Sign up for NIDIS emails on our email sign up form, or use the QR code below.

Additional Resources

Look back at previous Northeast DEWS Drought Status Updates.
Your local National Weather Service office.
NOAA Regional Climate Services Monthly Webinar Series (next webinar is October 31).
USDA Northeast Climate Hub.
USGS New England and New York Water Science Centers.

Contacts for More Information

Sylvia Reeves
Regional Drought Information Coordinator (Northeast DEWS)
NOAA/CIRES/National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS)
Email: sylvia.reeves@noaa.gov

Ellen L. Mecray
Regional Climate Services Director, Eastern Region
NOAA/NESDIS/National Centers for Environmental Information
Email: Ellen.L.Mecray@noaa.gov

Prepared By

Sylvia Reeves
NOAA/National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS), CIRES

Samantha Borisoff, Jessica Spaccio, Keith Eggleston, Art DeGaetano
Northeast Regional Climate Center

Ellen Mecray
Regional Climate Services Director, Eastern Region, NOAA

Gardner Bent
USGS New England Water Science Center

In partnership with National Weather Service Offices of the Northeast and State Climate Offices of the Northeast.

Special Thanks

This drought status update is issued in partnership between the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), U.S. Geological Survey, and the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) to communicate concern for drought expansion and intensification within the Northeast U.S. based on recent conditions and the forecasts and outlooks. NIDIS and its partners will issue future drought status updates as conditions evolve.