Drought Status Update for the Northeast

This update is based on data available as of Thursday, November 14, 2024 at 8 a.m. ET. We acknowledge that conditions are evolving.

Current Conditions in the Northeast

• According to the November 12 U.S. Drought Monitor, 93% of the Northeast is Abnormally Dry (D0) or in Moderate to Severe Drought (D1–D2). Just to our south, Extreme Drought (D3) is impacting New Jersey and western Pennsylvania while Exceptional Drought (D4) persists in West Virginia.
• Several states issued drought watches and advisories over the last two weeks. 
  • On November 2, the New York Department of Environmental Conservation (DEC) declared a drought watch for 15 New York counties. New York City declared a Drought Watch on November 2. Residents are asked to begin water conservation efforts.
  • As of November 7, Massachusetts declared Significant Drought (Level 2) or Critical Drought (Level 3)  across most of the state. 
  • And on November 9, Connecticut’s governor declared a stage 2 drought advisory for the state. 
• Multiple sites across the Northeast have had precipitation deficits of 5 to 9 inches since September 1. 
• An estimated 3 to 6 inches of net rainfall is needed to bring the soil to saturation and reduce fire risk, as specified by the Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI). KBDI values range from 300 to almost 600 in southern New York, on Long Island, and for much of southern New England. Fire risk also increased on Long Island and eastern Massachusetts as higher KBDI values (500 to 600) expanded to now cover more of these areas.  
• Through the 28-, 14- and 7- day time periods, much-below-normal streamflows expanded in coverage across the region. The highest concentration of much below-normal sites are in southeast New York and southern New England.
• Low groundwater percentiles are scattered across the region, but much-below-normal percentiles across Massachusetts strongly reflect the lack of rainfall.
• Numerous sites along the Northeast US coast are experiencing increasingly salty conditions in coastal wetlands and river systems. This indicates saltwater intrusion and low flow down tributaries and out to sea. Coastal communities should monitor for saltwater impacts on ecosystems and upstream communities should monitor saltwater fronts that may impact drinking water systems. 

Figure 1. Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) for the Northeast

Key takeaway: KBDI values range from 300 to almost 600 in southern New York, on Long Island, and for much of southern New England, representing an estimated 3 to 6 inches of net rainfall needed to bring the soil to saturation. 

Figure 2. Coastal Salinity Index

Key takeaway: Daily updates of several sites in Maine and New Hampshire have coastal salinity conditions ranging from CD1 (Moderate Salinity Conditions) to CD3 (Extreme Salinity Conditions), according to the Coastal Salinity Index. Salinities at those locations are increasing relative to their normal levels, possibly impacting local ecosystems.

Figure 3. 7-Day Average Streamflow for the Northeast U.S. 

Key takeaway: Below-normal and much-below-normal streamflows are prevalent across the region. 

Figure 4. Groundwater Conditions for the Northeast U.S. 

Key takeaway: Groundwater conditions lag behind the precipitation deficits of the last two months, but southeastern New York and Massachusetts subsurface water reserves are registering this impact. Sites in Connecticut, Maine, and upstate New York are also trending toward lower levels.

State and Regional Drought Impacts 

• The lack of rainfall since the beginning of September has led to water supply impacts. Managers are closely monitoring drinking water status. Voluntary and mandatory water conservation measures are in place in some New England towns and cities. For example, certain municipalities in Massachusetts issued mandatory water use restrictions
• Regional reservoirs storing water for New York City continue to show lower capacities.
• Maine is collecting information about dry wells in the state.
• Over the past week, Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) from Connecticut, southeastern New Hampshire, and New York note moderately dry conditions with low streamflows, changes to bird migration patterns, vegetation impacts, and concerns about dry wells.

Drought Impacts in the News

• Connecticut:
  • November 7, 2024: NBC News - Drought Plagues Majority of Northeast
  • October 30, 2024: WTNH.com NEWS8 - Hawthorne Fire Continues
• Maine:
  • November 10, 2024: Maine Public - Maine Forest Service Reports High Fire Danger
• Massachusetts:
  • November 12, 2024: WCVB - Attleboro Planning to Import Water from Rhode Island
  • November 8, 2024: WBUR - The Drought in Massachusetts is Getting Worse
  • November 2, 2024: MassLive - Northampton Wildfire Doubled Overnight
  • November 1, 2024: Mass.gov - Wildfires Spiked by 1200% In October
• New Hampshire:
  • November 7, 2024: WMUR - Groundwater Recharge Opportunities Become Limited With the Approach of Winter and Frozen Ground
• New York:
  • November 12, 2024: New York State - Update on Wildfires in New York
  • November 9, 2024: Forbes - Smoke Smell Hits NYC
  • November 8, 2024: NBC News - Brush Fire Breaks out in Brooklyn’s Prospect Park
  • November 6, 2024: CBS New York - Drought Conditions are Getting Worse in the Hudson Valley
  • November 1, 2024: The Ithaca Voice - Brushfire Updates
• Vermont:
  • November 11, 2024: WCAX - Wildfires Impact Air Quality
  • November 11, 2024: Vermont Department of Forests, Parks, and Recreation - Vermont Extends Ban on Debris Burning for Four Southern Counties

• Regional:

  • Delaware River Basin Drought Management and Flow Snapshot includes information on New York City reservoir storage and the Delaware River Basin Salt Front status.
  • New Jersey Drought Status and Conditions provides information on drinking water status and conditions. View reservoir levels.

Report your local drought impacts by submitting a Condition Monitoring Observer Report:

Report Drought Impacts

Outlooks and Potential Impacts for the Northeast

• The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center’s (CPC’s) 8–14 day outlook  shows increased chances of warmer-than-normal temperatures.
• According to CPC’s precipitation outlook for November 18–22, odds favor near-normal precipitation in eastern New England, with only slightly increased chances for above-normal precipitation in the rest of the Northeast.
• Without significant and widespread rain or snow that melts before the ground freezes, recharge of streams and groundwater will be blunted. Drought conditions and impacts are likely to continue.

Figure 5. 8–14 Day Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks for November 21–27

Key takeaway: Over the next 8-14 days, slightly increased chances for above-normal precipitation are expected. With warmer-than-normal temperatures also more likely, the odds do not favor drought relief before the ground is expected to freeze over. Once the ground freezes, the soil's ability to capture rain or melted snow is reduced.