Drought Early Warning Update for the Northeast

The pre-drought footprint expands, raising awareness of the possible return of drought conditions.

For more details, see the Northeast Drought Early Warning System Dashboard.

Key Points

Abnormally dry (D0) conditions returned to portions of western New York and along the New England coast from Connecticut to Maine. Growing precipitation deficits since March were exacerbated by little rainfall so far this May.
Moderate drought (D1) held fast in northwest Maine.
Abnormally dry (D0) conditions surrounding Maine’s D1 saw both improvement and degradation with spotty precipitation patterns during the last few weeks
Abnormally dry (D0) conditions remained in northern Vermont and small portions of northern New Hampshire.

U.S. Drought Monitor Conditions: Northeast | May 17, 2022

U.S. Drought Monitor

Current U.S. Drought Monitor map for the Northeast Drought Early Warning System with data valid for May 17, 2022. The U.S. Drought Monitor is updated each Thursday to show the location and intensity of drought across the country.

According to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor:

Moderate drought (D1) conditions exist in 1.51% of the region.
Abnormally dry (D0) conditions exist in 19.48% of the region.

Source(s): NDMC, NOAA, USDA

U.S. Drought Monitor Categories

Last Updated: 05/17/22

19.48%

of the Northeast is Abnormally Dry (D0)

5.31%

of Maine is in Moderate Drought (D1)

Current Conditions

U.S. Drought Monitor 4-Week Change Map

4-week U.S. Drought Monitor change map, showing where drought has improved or worsened from April 19 to May 17, 2022. — U.S. Drought Monitor change map, showing where drought and dryness have improved or worsened from April 19–May 17, 2022. Source: National Drought Mitigation Center.

Animation: 2022 U.S. Drought Monitor Conditions in the Northeast

Animation of a time series, map, and statistics showing the progression of drought across the Northeast from January 4 to May 17, 2022, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. The Northeast DEWS began 2022 with 3.63% of the region in D1-D2. By May 17, D2 was been removed from the region, and 1.55% is in D1. — Animation showing the progression of drought across the Northeast in 2022 so far (through May 17, 2022), according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. Explore more historical drought conditions.

Accumulated Precipitation Departure from Normal

Accumulated precipitation departures from normal from November 2021 through mid-May 2022 for four locations in the Northeast: Portland Area, ME (blue), Providence Area, RI (green), Rochester Area, NY (orange), and Boston Area, MA (black). — Departure from normal precipitation (inches) for Portland, ME (*blue*), Boston, MA (*black*), Providence, RI (*green*), and Rochester, NY (*orange*). Source: ACIS.

Potential Evapotranspiration (PET) Departure from Normal

Unseasonably warm temperatures just before mid-month resulted in PET rates that exceeded the normal seasonal progression in Buffalo and Caribou, and to a somewhat lesser extent, Boston. These large increases were not observed in New York City, where cooler temperatures prevailed. There is potential for increased PET rates this weekend (May 21–22, 2022) due to forecasts for excessively warm temperatures in much of southern New England.

State-Reported Impacts

Maine

May 8, 2022: Maine Public – A new state grant program
May 10, 2022: WGAN – Maine blueberries bounce back in 2021 after drought impacts in 2020
May 11, 2022: The Ellsworth American – Outlook for 2022 blueberry crop

Massachusetts

May 1, 2022: CBS Boston – Blue Hills Reservation fire
May 5, 2022: Haverhill Gazette – Wind-driven fire drought related?
May 11, 2022: "State Officials Urge Water Conservation after Declaring Drought in Southeast, Islands Regions"
May 12, 2022: Martha's Vineyard Times – Martha’s Vineyard is experiencing "mild drought", sharing water conservation and preparedness guidance for individuals and communities
May 13, 2022: The Berkshire Edge – "Wildfire Alerts Issued Across Massachusetts After 10 Days of Dry Conditions"

New Hampshire

May 18, 2022: WMUR – White Mountain National Forest – Crawford Notch fire

New York

May 17, 2022: New York Department of Environmental Conservation (DEC) – Recent Statewide Forest Ranger Actions

* Please note: Nomenclature for drought levels varies between states and agencies. For detailed descriptions of drought status levels, please see the issuing agency's website.

What We Are Watching

Heatwaves and Drought in the Northeast

During the April NOAA Eastern Region Climate Services webinar, Mathew Barlow and Laurie Agel highlighted some of the findings from their research funded by the NOAA Climate Program Office's Modeling, Analysis, Predictions and Projections (MAPP) Program.

View the presentation video (start time 13:49) and slide sets, or read their paper in Nature.

Heat, Health, and Drought

Don’t forget to register for the next NOAA Eastern Region Climate Services webinar on Thursday, May 26, focused on "Heat, Health, and Drought." Use that same link to register for other webinars through the summer (July 28 and August 30).

Evaporative Demand Increase Across Lower 48 Means Less Water Supplies, Drier Vegetation, and Higher Fire Risk

A recent NIDIS-funded study, led by the Desert Research Institute, found that evaporative demand has increased across much of the U.S. over the past 40 years and is emerging outside the range of what was experienced just 20–40 years ago in some places. Learn more.

Outlooks

According to the Climate Prediction Center's 8–14 day outlook (valid May 27–June 2), the entire Northeast is more likely to see above-normal temperatures and near-normal precipitation.
The week 3–4 outlooks (valid May 28–June 10) favor above-normal temperatures throughout most of the Northeast, except far-western New York. The entire region has equal chances of above- or below-normal precipitation.

8–14 Day Temperature Outlook

All of the Northeast has above-normal chances of higher-than-normal temperatures from May 27 to June 2, 2022. — NOAA Climate Prediction Center 8–14 day temperature outlook for the Northeast, showing the probability of above-normal, below-normal, or normal conditions from May 27–June 2, 2022. Source: Climate Prediction Center via the Northeast DEWS Dashboard.

8–14 Day Precipitation Outlook

The entire Northeast DEWS region has a higher likelihood of near-normal precipitation conditions from May 27 to June 2, 2022. — NOAA Climate Prediction Center 8–14 day precipitation outlook for the Northeast, showing the probability of above-normal, below-normal, or normal conditions from May 27–June 2, 2022. Source: Climate Prediction Center via the Northeast DEWS Dashboard.

Temperature Outlook Week 3–4

From May 28 to June 10, 2022, most of the Northeast region has a higher chance of above-normal temperatures, except for far-western New York. — NOAA Climate Prediction Center week 3–4 temperature outlook for the Northeast, showing the probability of above-normal or below-normal conditions from May 28–June 10, 2022. Source: Climate Prediction Center.

Precipitation Outlook Week 3–4

From May 28 to June 10, 2022, the entire Northeast has equal chances of above, below, and near normal precipitation. — NOAA Climate Prediction Center week 3–4 precipitation outlook for the Northeast, showing the probability of above-normal or below-normal conditions from May 28–June 10, 2022. Source: Climate Prediction Center.

Additional Resources

New on the Northeast DEWS Dashboard

Northeast DEWS Dashboard: U.S. Geological Survey streamflow and groundwater status maps now have pop out capability to view site-specific information.

Other Resources

VIC Soil Moisture
New NRCC SPI Maps
Your local National Weather Service office
NOAA Regional Climate Services Monthly Webinar Series (next webinar is on May 26)
USDA Northeast Climate Hub
USGS New England and New York Water Science Centers

Use these sites to keep tabs on drought degradation and improvements in the areas outside of the Northeast DEWS borders:

Contacts for More Information

Sylvia Reeves
Regional Drought Information Coordinator (Northeast DEWS)
NOAA/CIRES/National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS)
Email: sylvia.reeves@noaa.gov

Ellen L. Mecray
Regional Climate Services Director, Eastern Region
NOAA/NESDIS/National Centers for Environmental Information
Email: Ellen.L.Mecray@noaa.gov

Prepared By

Sylvia Reeves
NOAA/National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS), CIRES

Samantha Borisoff, Jessica Spaccio, Keith Eggleston, Art DeGaetano
Northeast Regional Climate Center

Ellen Mecray
Regional Climate Services Director, Eastern Region, NOAA

David Hollinger and Maria Janowiak
USDA Climate Hubs

Gardner Bent
USGS New England Water Science Center

In partnership with National Weather Service Offices of the Northeast and State Climate Offices of the Northeast.

Special Thanks

This drought early warning update is issued in partnership between the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), U.S. Geological Survey, and the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) to communicate concern for drought expansion and intensification within the Northeast U.S. based on recent conditions and the forecasts and outlooks. NIDIS and its partners will issue future Drought Early Warning Updates as conditions evolve.