Drought Update for the Intermountain West

A Lackluster January: Snow Totals Near Normal for This Time of Year

Key Points

Moderate to extreme drought persists. Overall drought conditions showed little change across the Intermountain West in January.
A lackluster January returned snow totals to near normal for this time of the season.
La Niña is still in place and is a strong influence on precipitation patterns for the coming season.

U.S. Drought Monitor Conditions: Intermountain West | February 1, 2022

U.S. Drought Monitor

Current U.S. Drought Monitor map for the Intermountain West Drought Early Warning System region with data valid for February 1, 2022. The U.S. Drought Monitor is updated each Thursday to show the location and intensity of drought across the country.

Source(s): NDMC, NOAA, USDA

U.S. Drought Monitor Categories

Last Updated: 02/01/22

of Arizona is in Extreme (D3) Drought

19%

of Colorado is in Extreme (D3) Drought

30%

of New Mexico is in Extreme (D3) or Exceptional (D4) Drought

32%

of Utah is in Extreme (D3) Drought

of Wyoming is in Extreme (D3) Drought

Current Drought Conditions and Outlook

U.S. Drought Monitor Conditions

Overall, drought is improving across the Intermountain West.
Exceptional (D4) drought returned to the region in northeastern New Mexico.
16% of the region is still experiencing extreme (D3) drought.
Extreme (D3) drought conditions have been in place in this region since May 2020.
Moderate (D1) or worse drought has been in the region since August 2009.

Current Snow Water Equivalent

A snowy December was followed by a lackluster January.
Autumn 2021 ended with a warm and dry November for much of the West, leaving little snowpack in the mountains to start the climatological winter in December.

Snow Water Equivalent: Upper Colorado

Snow water equivalent (inches) time series for the Upper Colorado Region. At the end of January 2022, SWE was above the median for this time of year. — Upper Colorado Region snow water equivalent for the 2021–2022 season up to January 31, 2022. Source: USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service–National Water and Climate Center.

1-Month Change in Snow Water Equivalent: January 1–30, 2022

Change in snow water equivalent (as a percent of 1990-2021 median) in HUC-2 basins across the west from January 1 to January 30, 2022. — Snow water equivalent as a percent of the Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) 1990-2021 median for the western U.S. for January 1, 2022 (*left*) and January 30, 2022 (*right*). Source: USDA NRCS National Water and Climate Center.

Forecasts and Seasonal Outlooks

3-Month Outlook for Winter (February–April 2022)

Odds favor above-normal temperatures for the southern U.S., including New Mexico and parts of Arizona, Colorado, and Utah.
Odds favor below-normal precipitation for the southwest U.S., including southern Utah and southern Colorado.

February–April Temperature Outlook

Climate Prediction Center 3-month temperature outlook, showing the probability of exceeding the median temperature from February to April 2022. Odds favor above-normal temperatures for the southern U.S., including New Mexico and parts of Arizona. — Three-month temperature outlook, showing the probability of above-normal or below-normal conditions during February–April 2022. Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

February–April Precipitation Outlook

Climate Prediction Center 3-month precipitation outlook, showing the probability of exceeding the median precipitation from February to April 2022. Odds favor below normal precipitation for Arizona, New Mexico, and central/southern Colorado and Utah. — Three-month precipitation outlook, showing the probability of above-normal or below-normal conditions during February–April 2022. Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

Seasonal Drought Outlook

Drought is expected to continue for the Intermountain West through spring.
The Climate Prediction Center's 3-month drought outlook shows drought is likely to remain but improve for western Wyoming.

U.S. Drought Outlook: February–April 2022

A map of the southwestern United States showing the probability drought conditions persisting, improving, or developing from January 20 to April 30, 2022. Current drought conditions over the western U.S. are forecast to persist or develop. — U.S. seasonal drought outlook for February 1–April 30, 2022, showing the likelihood that drought will remain, improve, worsen, or develop. Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

La Niña to Continue Through Spring

One of the primary drivers of drought across the Southwest this season was a La Niña pattern in the Pacific.
Current forecasts suggest La Niña will continue through spring.
Spring precipitation across the Intermountain West is usually lower than normal in the seasons when La Niña is winding down.
For more information, please check out the NOAA El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) blog and the Western Regional Climate Center information page about the La Niña impacts for the West.

Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies (°C) for January 24–30, 2022

Map of the Pacific Ocean showing sea surface temperature anomalies (in degrees Celsius) for January 24-30, 2022. Blue shading in the equatorial pacific indicates cooler water temperatures consistent with a La Niña pattern. — Sea surface temperature anomalies for the Pacific Ocean for January 24–30, 2022. Blue shading in the equatorial Pacific indicates cooler water temperatures consistent with a La Niña pattern. Source: Australian Bureau of Meteorology.

Risk of Wet/Dry Extremes in February–April During La Niña

Risk of wet or dry extremes from the historical composite of February through April La Ninas or the continental US. Extreme dry conditions are likely for much of the Southwest and Florida. — February–March–April (FMA) rainfall pattern when averaged over historical La Niña events, showing the risk of wet and dry extremes in FMA during La Niña. Source: NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory.

Probability of El Niño, La Niña, or Neutral Conditions

Bar graph showing probability of the three primary ENSO states at 3-month intervals from December-January-February to August-September-October 2022. Odds favor La Niña to continue until May. — ENSO forecasts from the International Research Institute, showing the probability of El Niño, La Niña, or neutral conditions from December 2021 to October 2022. Source: International Research Institute.

State-Based Conditions and Impacts

Arizona

There was very little change in short-term drought in January, while long-term exceptional drought (D4) persisted in northeastern Arizona.
The majority of the state received below-average precipitation for January:
- Most January precipitation occurred on January 1.
- Two other systems later in the month brought minimal precipitation.
- Southeastern Arizona received near-normal precipitation in January.
Arizona’s snowpack:
- The Verde River basin ended January at 102% of snow water equivalent.
- The Salt River basin had 72% of snow water equivalent.
- Colorado Basin River Forecast Center water supply forecasts do not expect improvement this season.

Arizona Percent of Normal Precipitation: January 2022

Map of Arizona showing precipitation rankings for January 2022. All but the southeastern third of the state had below normal precipitation for the month. — January 2022 precipitation rankings for Arizona, compared to the period 1895–2010. The majority of the state received below-average precipitation for January, while pockets in southeastern Arizona received above-average precipitation. Source: WestWide Drought Tracker.

Colorado

Weather patterns shifted to favor warm, dry weather west of the Continental Divide, but cold weather with moderate snowfall in eastern Colorado.
Statewide snowpack regressed from 130% of median on January 9 to 105% of median on January 30.
Following the Marshall Fire event, drought conditions have improved for Colorado’s urban corridor.
- Boulder received 200% of normal snowfall, and Denver received 170% of normal snowfall in January.
- Longer-term dryness remains a concern as Denver is still record dry from August 1–February 1.
The forecast for the first two weeks of February is cold and wintry conditions with below-normal temperatures. Snowpack is likely to improve in the state’s two major river basins that are currently below average: the Upper Rio Grande and Arkansas River basins. However, the west slopes will continue to be drier than normal, lowering spring runoff projections.
The latest Colorado Basin River Forecast Center runoff projections for western Colorado are for 70%–100% of normal April–July runoff in southwest Colorado and 90%–110% of normal runoff in northwest Colorado.

Colorado Statewide Snow Water Equivalent (Inches)

Time series of SWE for Colorado for the 2021-2022 season. At the beginning of January SWE was nearly 130% of normal, but accumulation through January was small and SWE ended the month near normal. — Colorado statewide snow water equivalent for the 2021–2022 season up to February 1, 2022. Source: USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service–National Water and Climate Center.

New Mexico

January is usually one of the drier months of the year.
January precipitation was very much below average for eastern New Mexico and in the Four Corners region, and a little below average across western New Mexico.
Eastern New Mexico has been in an extremely dry pattern since July.

January 2022 Percent of Normal Precipitation

Percent of normal precipitation for New Mexico from January 1 to 31, 2022. Central new mexico saw above normal precipitation in January 2022. Both eastern and western New Mexico had a precipitation deficit. — Percent of normal precipitation for January 2022 across New Mexico. Source: High Plains Regional Climate Center.

Utah

Utah snowpack flatlined in January, trending down significantly from New Year’s highs.
As of February 1, statewide snow water equivalent (SWE) is at:
- 100% of normal for this time of year
- 49% of median peak value.
The extended forecast remains dry for the region.
- The first half of February is anticipated to continue the recent downward trend.
- Statewide, an increasing number of individual basins are expected to dip below 100% of normal snow water values within the first two weeks of February.
Soil moisture:
- Elevated levels across the state anchor optimism for a beneficial spring runoff.
- Revised projections accounting for a lack of January snowfall will see a drop in the forecast water supplies.
Hydrologic drought remains a significant concern going forward as reservoir levels will struggle to provide a similar drawdown in 2022 to what was needed to cover 2021’s water supply deficit.

Utah Statewide Snow Water Equivalent (Inches)

Time series of SWE for Utah for the 2021-2022 season. At the beginning of January SWE was nearly 130% of normal, but accumulation through January was small and SWE ended the month near normal. — Statewide snow water equivalent measurements for Utah. The black line represents current water year conditions, which stands exactly at 100% of normal for this time of year and at the 49th percentile for median peak value. Source: USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service–National Water and Climate Center.

February 1 Water Supply Forecast

Map of Utah showing the water supply forecast for the Latest Model Guidance Percent Average. All river forecast sites show less than 110% of average. Most show less than 100% of average for February. — February 1 water supply forecast across Utah. Source: Colorado Basin River Forecast Center.

Wyoming

Soil moisture continues to be low (10th percentile or less) for parts of northeast Wyoming, especially eastern Sheridan, northeastern Johnson, northern Campbell, and northwestern Crook counties.
Precipitation:
- Precipitation has been average for the southeast and central parts of Wyoming, as well as some of the lower elevations in the northwest.
- The northeast, far northwest, and south central areas have missed out on much of the January snows.
Temperatures:
- Temperatures were below normal for the western part of the state. This was driven mostly by cooler than average nighttime lows.
- Parts of south central and southeastern Wyoming were also below normal both for minimum and maximum temperatures.
- Along with below-normal precipitation, the northeast also had above-normal mean temperatures, which were influenced mostly by warmer than average daytime temperatures.

Wyoming 30-Day Percent of Normal Precipitation

30-day percent of normal precipitation for Wyoming, from January 2 to January 31, 2022. Source: Wyoming State Climate Office.

For More Information

More local information is available from the following resources:

Your state climatologist
Your local National Weather Service office
Western Water Assessment: Intermountain West Climate Dashboard

Upcoming Events

February 23, 2022: Southwest Drought Briefing
March 29, 2022: Spring Runoff Conference, Utah State University

Prepared By

Joel Lisonbee
NOAA/National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS)

Erin Saffell
Arizona State Climatologist/Arizona State University

Peter Goble
Colorado Climate Center/Colorado State University

Jon Meyer
Utah Climate Center/Utah State University

Tony Bergantino
Water Resources Data System – Wyoming State Climate Office

Special Thanks

This drought status update is issued in partnership between the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and the offices of the state climatologist for Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming. The purpose of the update is to communicate a potential area of concern for drought expansion and/or development within the Intermountain West based on recent conditions and the upcoming forecast. NIDIS and its partners will issue future drought status updates as conditions evolve.