Southern Plains Drought Status Update

Drought conditions expand over parts of Texas and western Kansas and Oklahoma.

Eastern Oklahoma and Kansas see drought conditions improve.

Key Points

Severe drought (D2) has developed over parts of Texas.
Following a late summer/early fall flash drought, nearly all of eastern Oklahoma has seen 4+ inches of rain in the past 30 days, leading to major improvements.
Western Oklahoma and far southwestern Kansas are still experiencing short- and long-term deficits leading to sustained drought, with portions of northwest Oklahoma and the Oklahoma Panhandle in extreme (D3) drought.
Climate outlooks suggest a warmer-than-normal winter is more likely than not for the entire region, with increased chances for a drier-than-normal winter across all of New Mexico and most of Texas and western Oklahoma.

U.S. Drought Monitor Conditions: Southern Plains | November 2, 2021

U.S. Drought Monitor

The U.S. Drought Monitor is updated each Thursday to show the location and intensity of drought across the country. Drought categories show experts’ assessments of conditions related to dryness and drought including observations of how much water is available in streams, lakes, and soils compared to usual for the same time of year.

This map shows drought conditions across Kansas, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas as of November 2, 2021.

Source(s): NDMC, NOAA, USDA

U.S. Drought Monitor Categories

Last Updated: 11/02/21

12.2%

of Kansas is in moderate (D1) to severe (D2) drought

78.1%

of New Mexico is in moderate (D1) to extreme (D3) drought

36.9%

of Oklahoma is in moderate (D1) to extreme (D3) drought

32.9%

of Texas is in moderate (D1) to severe (D2) drought

U.S. Drought Monitor Conditions

As of November 2, 2021, 35% of the region is in drought, with parts of each state experiencing severe drought (D2) conditions.

Drought Development Over the Past Month

U.S. Drought Monitor Change Map for Kansas, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Texas, showing the change in drought conditions from October 5 to November 2, 2021. Pockets of northern Texas are experiencing moderate to severe drought. Drought improvement can be seen over eastern Oklahoma. — Four-week U.S. Drought Monitor change map, showing where drought has improved, remained the same, or worsened from October 5 to November 2, 2021. Source: National Drought Mitigation Center.

Higher Temperatures and Evaporative Demand

Over the last 4 weeks, the average temperatures over western Kansas and the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles have been 3–4 ºF above normal for this time of year.
This has caused evaporative demand to be higher than expected for this time of year, meaning any precipitation in these areas would evaporate from the landscape more quickly than usual.

30-Day Departure from Normal Temperature

Map of the southern great plains showing the 1-month averaged temperature anomalies for the 30 days leading up to November 4, 2021. Western and northern Texas saw 3 to 4 degrees F above normal temperatures. — Departure from normal temperatures for the 30 days leading up to November 2, 2021. Source: UC Merced, Climate Engine.

4-Week Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI) for October 28, 2021

4-week averaged Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI) as of October 28, 2021. Western and Northern Texas saw exceptionally high evaporative demand for the four weeks ending October 28. — 4-week averaged Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI), valid October 28, 2021. Source: NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory.

Low Precipitation

Precipitation over the last 30 days has been only about 25% of average for western Texas, the Oklahoma panhandle, and far western Kansas.
The 60-day percentage of average precipitation for the region shows precipitation less than 50% of the long-term average for western and northern Texas

30-Day Percent of Normal Precipitation

60-Day Percent of Normal Precipitation

Drought, Precipitation, and Temperature Outlook

Both the monthly and the seasonal drought outlooks show drought conditions persisting or developing over Kansas, Oklahoma, and northern Texas.
Odds slightly favor below-normal precipitation for the Southern Plains for the remainder of the year.

U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook: October 12, 2021–January 31, 2022

Climate Prediction Center's seasonal drought outlook, predicting where drought is likely to worsen, improve, or remain the same from October 12, 2021–January 31, 2022. — U.S. seasonal drought outlook, predicting where drought is likely to persist, improve, develop, or be removed from October 12, 2021–January 31, 2022. Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

Three-Month Precipitation Outlook: November 2021–January 2022

Climate Prediction Center three-month precipitation outlook for November 2021–January 2022, showing the probability of above-normal, below-normal, or near-normal conditions. Odds favor below normal precipitation for the Southern Plains for the season. — Three-month precipitation outlook for November 2021–January 2022, showing the probability (percent chance) of above-normal, below-normal, or near-normal conditions. Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

Three-Month Temperature Outlook: November 2021–January 2022

Climate Prediction Center 3-month temperature outlook, valid for November 2021 to December 2022. Odds highly favor above normal temperatures for the Southern Plains for the season. — Three-month temperature outlook for November 2021–January 2022, showing the probability (percent chance) of above-normal, below-normal, or near-normal conditions. Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

For More Information

NIDIS and its partners will issue future drought updates as conditions evolve.

More local information is available from the following resources:

Your state climatologist.
Your local National Weather Service office.

Prepared By

Joel Lisonbee
NOAA/National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS)

Gary McManus
Oklahoma State Climatologist, Oklahoma Mesonet, Oklahoma Climatological Survey

Chip Redmond
Kansas State University

Cait Rottler
USDA Southern Plains Climate Hub

Clay Pope
CSP, LLC/USDA Southern Plains Climate Hub

John Nielsen-Gammon
Texas State Climatologist, Texas A&M University

Victor Murphy
National Weather Service Southern Region

Special Thanks

This drought early warning update is issued in partnership between the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the offices of the state climatologist for Texas, Oklahoma, New Mexico, and Kansas. The purpose of the update is to communicate a potential area of concern for drought expansion and/or development within the Southern Plains based on recent conditions and the upcoming forecast. NIDIS and its partners will issue future drought updates as conditions evolve.