Skip to main content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Regional Drought Update Date
October 28, 2022
Site Section
Drought Status Update

Southern Plains Drought Status Update


DEWS Regions:
Update Status:

NIDIS and its partners will issue further drought status updates as conditions evolve.

October Rainfall Came Eventually, But the Drought Continues

Key Points

  • Exceptional (D4) Drought persists across southern Kansas (33% of the state) and Oklahoma (21%).
  • Climate outlooks favor warmer and drier conditions than normal through the fall and early winter
  • Drought in the Southern Plains is expected to remain and expand through winter 
Current Conditions
U.S. Drought Monitor Conditions: Southern Plains | October 25, 2022

U.S. Drought Monitor Categories

Main Stats
58%
of Kansas is in extreme to exceptional (D3–D4) drought
7%
of New Mexico is in extreme to exceptional (D3–D4) drought
70%
of Oklahoma is in extreme to exceptional (D3–D4) drought
13%
of Texas is in extreme to exceptional (D3–D4) drought

Current Drought Conditions and Outlook

October: A Month's Worth of Rain Came in One Storm for Eastern Oklahoma and North-Central Texas

  • October precipitation was very much below average for all but western Texas until a couple of storms during the week of October 24–28 brought 1–5 inches of precipitation to eastern Oklahoma and northeastern Texas.
    • Rather widespread 2+ inch rainfall totals across northern Texas and most of southern/eastern Oklahoma provided much needed drought relief and provide short -term improvement while also helping fill area reservoirs in advance of winter.
    • The Choctaw Nation, which was in exceptional drought (D4), received over 2 inches in this single storm.
  • So far, October temperatures have been above average for Kansas and Oklahoma. The highest temperatures across the region were recorded in the Choctaw Nation, where mean daily maximum temperatures have been over 4ºF above average over the last 30 days.

Precipitation (Inches) Since the October 18 U.S. Drought Monitor: October 18–26

Accumulated precipitation since the release of the 18 October Drought Monitor. The Choctaw Nation, which was in exceptional drought, received over 2 inches in this single storm.
The October 18 U.S. Drought Monitor (lines) overlaid on the total accumulated precipitation (inches) since the release of the October 18 U.S. Drought Monitor (October 18–26) produced from a combination of satellite, RADAR, and rain gauge observations. Data valid October 26, 2022. The large rainfall event on the 24th and 25th, shown in the image, spurred some minor changes to the current U.S. Drought Monitor (valid October 25, shown above). Source: U.S. Drought Monitor, NOAA Multi-Radar/Multi-Sensor (MRMS) System.

30-Day Departure from Normal Maximum Temperature (°F)

 Much of the Southern Plains has had persistently high temperatures over the past month.
Departure from normal maximum temperature (°F) across the Southern Plains in the 30 days leading up to October 22, 2022. Source: UC Merced, Climate Engine via Drought.gov.

30-Day Percent of Normal Precipitation

Much of the region, including northern Texas, Oklahoma, north eastern New Mexico and southeastern Kansas, has received less than 25% of normal precipitation over the last 30 days.
Percent of normal precipitation across the Southern Plains in the 30 days leading up to October 22, 2022. Source: UC Merced, Climate Engine via Drought.gov.

Total Precipitation in the 72 Hours from October 24–26

From October 24-26, parts of Oklahoma, northern Texas, northwest Arkansas and southwest Missouri accumulated between 1 and 4 inches.
72-hour total accumulated rainfall (inches) over the Southern Plains from October 24–26, 2022 produced from a combination of satellite, RADAR, and rain gauge observations. Source: NOAA Multi-Radar/Multi-Sensor (MRMS) System.

U.S. Drought Monitor Conditions

  • 78% of the region is in drought (D1 or worse).
  • 29% of the region is experiencing extreme (D3) drought or worse.
  • 10% of the region is experiencing exceptional (D4) drought.
    • 33% of Kansas is now in D4 status. That's the highest percentage of D4 since February 2013 and is currently the largest percent area in D4 for any U.S. state (Oklahoma is second at 21%).
  • Extreme (D3) drought conditions have been in place in this region since August 2019.
  • Moderate (D1) or worse drought has been in the region since June 2016.
  • Over the last month, drought conditions have worsened over northern and eastern Texas.
  • Exceptional (D4) drought has been in place for Oklahoma and southern Kansas since early September.
  • Drought in New Mexico and western Texas improved, but was not eliminated, over the past month due to some late monsoonal showers in September. 

U.S. Drought Monitor 4-Week Change Map

 Over the last 4 weeks drought has worsened by 1 to 3 categories in  Oklahoma and southern Kansas and eastern Texas.
U.S. Drought Monitor 4-week change map showing where drought has improved or worsened from September 27–October 25, 2022. Source: National Drought Mitigation Center.

Forecasts and Seasonal Outlooks

November 2022

The Climate Prediction Center's monthly outlook for November shows: 

  • Increased temperatures are highly likely across most of the U.S., including the Southern Plains region, with the highest odds over Kansas and northern Oklahoma.
  • The monthly precipitation outlook for October shows below-average precipitation is the most likely outcome for the whole region in October.

November 2022 Temperature Outlook

The monthly outlook for November 2022 shows an increased probability of above-normal temperatures across the Southern Plains.
Monthly temperature outlook for November 2022, showing the probability (percent chance) of above-normal, below-normal, or near-normal conditions. Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

November 2022 Precipitation Outlook

The monthly outlook for November 2022 shows a greater likelihood of below-normal precipitation for the Southern Plains.
Monthly precipitation outlook for November 2022, showing the probability (percent chance) of above-normal, below-normal, or near-normal conditions. Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

3-Month Outlook for November 2022–January 2023

Seasonal forecasts for November through January show a warmer and drier than normal season ahead for the Southern Plains.

Three-Month Temperature Outlook: November 2022–January 2023

For November to December 2022, odds favor above-normal temperatures across the Southern Plains.
Three-month temperature outlook for November 2022–January 2023, showing the probability (percent chance) of above-normal, below-normal, or near-normal conditions. Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

Three-Month Precipitation Outlook: November 2022–January 2023

For November 2022 to January 2023, odds favor below-normal precipitation across the Southern Plains.
Three-month precipitation outlook for November 2022–January 2023, showing the probability (percent chance) of above-normal, below-normal, or near-normal conditions. Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

Seasonal Drought Outlook

With the Climate Prediction Center's seasonal outlook strongly favoring below-normal precipitation for Texas and generally favoring below-normal precipitation for Oklahoma and Kansas, the seasonal drought outlook shows continued or returning drought for the region this winter.

October 20–January 31 Drought Outlook

From October 20, 2022 to January 31, 2023, drought is forecast to persist in places where it is already present and develop where in is not present yet for all but far western Texas.
U.S. seasonal (3-month) drought outlook, predicting where drought is likely to persist, improve, develop, or be removed from October 20, 2022 to January 31, 2023. Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

La Niña Persists and Will Impact Winter Weather

  • One of the primary drivers of drought across the Southwest, including western Texas, through the winter ahead will be a third consecutive year of a La Niña pattern in the Pacific.
  • The latest Climate Prediction Center El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) discussion maintains a La Niña Advisory. There is a 75% chance of La Niña during the Northern Hemisphere winter (December–February) 2022–23, with a 54% chance for ENSO-neutral in February–April 2023.
  • No two La Niña patterns are the same. For more information please check out the NOAA ENSO blog.

State-Based Conditions and Impacts

Kansas

  • With recent widespread freeze, the growing season has concluded statewide, bringing an ease to water demands. However, aquifers and streams are slow to rebound if at all yet.
  • Wheat emergence is sparse and at 11% below average. There are concerns about lack of moisture to sustain the wheat that did emerge. 
  • Increased wind combined with drought conditions have led to large wildfire activity statewide.
  • Corn and soybeans are being bailed for feed as most fall hay has already been depleted.
  • Moisture that has occurred has not been enough to offset even short term deficits. Very dry soils remain with dust concerns to cattle and road safety.  
Much of Kansas has seen precipitation deficits over the past 30 days.
Precipitation departure over the last 30 days for Kansas using the Kansas Mesonet and National Weather Service estimated precipitation data. Data valid October 28, 2022. Source: Kansas Mesonet.

Oklahoma

  • Significant rainfall has helped alleviate drought conditions across parts of southern and eastern Oklahoma. 
  • Much of the northern one-third of the state has missed out on the heavier rains, however. 
  • Northwestern Oklahoma has been particularly dry, with most areas seeing less than a half-inch for October thus far.  
  • Thirty Oklahoma counties remain with burn bans despite the rainfall. 
  • Oklahoma’s topsoil was considered 98% short to very short according to USDA estimates, although that number has improved due to recent rains.
Significant rainfall has helped alleviate drought conditions across parts of southern and eastern Oklahoma., while the northern third of the state has been dry.
Oklahoma rainfall totals for the last 30 days, reflecting recent beneficial rainfall across most of southern and eastern Oklahoma. Data valid October 28, 2022. Source: Oklahoma Mesonet.

Texas

  • Soil moisture levels remain low across most of the state, with the dry spell from early September to mid-October evaporating the water from the rains that fell in August.   
  • Throughout the state, ranchers continue to provide supplemental feeding for cattle.
  • Winter wheat is being planted in the hopes that rains in late October will help get the wheat established.
  • Cotton crop losses in the southern High Plains of Texas due to the drought were estimated at $2 billion dollars.
Map of drought intensity in Texas based on a blend of Standardized Precipitation Index values during the three to nine month time frame.
Map of drought intensity in Texas based on a blend of Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) values during the three to nine month time frame. Precipitation deficits over the past several months have been most severe in south-central Texas, and only parts of western and southern Texas have seen significantly above-normal precipitation.

New Mexico

  • New Mexico has drought conditions ranging from no drought to exceptional drought (D4):
    • The short-term drought conditions have improved dramatically in much of the state due in part to lingering moisture in October, with many parts of western and central New Mexico receiving as much as 400% of normal rainfall in the past 30 days. 
    • Despite this, there are some areas where extreme (D3) and exceptional (D4) drought remain, particularly in the eastern plains and far northeast of the state.
  • Long-term effects of drought are still very much present despite a robust monsoon season.
    • Short-term groundwater and vegetation signals are showing clear signs of improvement.
    • Some long-term drought signals, such as surface water storage, are showing the effects of decades of drought. This is particularly true along the Rio Grande where Caballo and Elephant Butte reservoirs are at 11% and 6% of capacity, respectively.
Precipitation through October was split with the western half of the state experiencing very-much above average precipitation while the eastern border of the state had below average precipitation.
30-day percent of normal precipitation from September 27 to October 26, 2022. Source: High Plains Regional Climate Center.

For More Information

NIDIS and its partners will issue future drought updates as conditions evolve.

More local information is available from the following resources:

Upcoming Events

  • November 14, 2022, 1–3 p.m CST: Southeast Regional Climate Center Winter Drought Webinar. Registration link still to come. 

Prepared By

Joel Lisonbee
NOAA/National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS), Southern Plains Drought Early Warning System and CIRES/CU Boulder

Gary McManus
Oklahoma State Climatologist, Oklahoma Mesonet, Oklahoma Climatological Survey

Chip Redmond
Kansas State University

Matthew Sittel
Kansas Assistant State Climatologist, Kansas State University

John Nielsen-Gammon
Texas State Climatologist, Texas A&M University
Southern Regional Climate Center

Victor Murphy
National Weather Service

Special Thanks

This drought status update is issued in partnership between the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the offices of the state climatologist for Texas, Oklahoma, New Mexico, and Kansas. The purpose of the update is to communicate a potential area of concern for drought expansion and/or development within the Southern Plains based on recent conditions and the upcoming forecast. NIDIS and its partners will issue future drought updates as conditions evolve.