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Regional Drought Update Date
December 9, 2022
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Drought Status Update

Southern Plains Drought Status Update


DEWS Regions:
Update Status:

NIDIS and its partners will issue further drought status updates as conditions evolve.

Record-setting drought in Kansas and Oklahoma to persist through winter. 

  • Exceptional (D4) drought persists across southern Kansas (36% of the state) and Oklahoma (20%).
  • Drought in the Southern Plains is expected to remain through winter.
  • Best chance for significant drought relief will be in spring.
Current Conditions
U.S. Drought Monitor Conditions: Southern Plains | December 6, 2022

U.S. Drought Monitor Categories

Main Stats
57%
of Kansas is in extreme to exceptional (D3–D4) drought
4%
of New Mexico is in extreme to exceptional (D3–D4) drought
64%
of Oklahoma is in extreme to exceptional (D3–D4) drought
9%
of Texas is in extreme to exceptional (D3–D4) drought

U.S. Drought Monitor

  • 63% of the Southern Plains region is in drought (D1 or worse), according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.
  • 25% of the region is experiencing extreme (D3) drought or worse.
  • 10% of the region is experiencing exceptional (D4) drought.
    • 35.9% of Kansas is now in D4 status. That's the highest percentage of exceptional drought (D4) since February 2013, and is currently the largest percentage of D4 of any U.S. state (Oklahoma is second at 20%).
  • Extreme (D3) drought conditions have been in place in this region since August 2019.
  • Moderate (D1) or worse drought has been in the region since June 2016.

Current Drought Conditions

  • A record-setting drought has been crippling agriculture in western Kansas and parts of Oklahoma.
  • November temperatures: Overall, November was cooler than average for the Southern Plains.
  • November precipitation: While both Kansas and Oklahoma state-wide precipitation was near average to a little below average for November, it was not evenly distributed across the state, and parts of western Kansas had monthly rainfall in the lowest 5% of historical records.
  • Fall precipitation: Far-southwestern Kansas, parts of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles, and far-northeastern New Mexico (Union County) had fall precipitation in the lowest 5% of historical records with a few new low precipitation records set for the season. 

30-Day Departure from Normal Maximum Temperature

Map of the Southern Plains showing 30-day departure from normal maximum temperature. Much of the region has had persistently high temperatures over the past month.
Departure from normal maximum temperature (°F) across the Southern Plains in the 30 days leading up to December 2, 2022. Source: UC Merced, Climate Engine via Drought.gov.

30-Day Percent of Normal Precipitation

Map of the Southern Plains showing 30-day percent of normal precipitation. Much of the region, including northern Texas, Oklahoma, north eastern New Mexico and southeastern Kansas, has received less than 25% of normal precipitation over the last 30 days.
Percent of normal precipitation across the Southern Plains in the 30 days leading up to December 2, 2022. Source: UC Merced, Climate Engine via Drought.gov.

September–November 2022 Precipitation Percentiles

Map of the south-central US showing precipitation percentile data for fall 2022. Locations in eastern Colorado and New Mexico and western Kansas and Oklahoma experienced precipitation below the lowest 10th percentile.
Precipitation percentiles for fall 2022 (September–November) compared to the 1991–2020 record. Only the 40th percentile and below are shown. Source: Climate Engine using PRISM monthly data.

Southern Plains Drought in the News

How Will Drought Conditions Change Through Winter 2022?

Winter Is Usually the Driest Time of Year for the Southern Plains

  • December, January, and February are usually the driest months of the year for Kansas and Oklahoma.
  • Even small amounts of precipitation will be beneficial for the winter wheat crop, but drought-busting storms are unlikely to happen until spring.

Kansas Monthly Average Precipitation

Mean precipitation by month for Kansas over 1991-2020 is as follows: Jan = 1.50, Feb = 1.66, Mar = 2.74, Apr = 3.60, May = 5.01, Jun = 4.46, Jul = 3.23, Aug = 3.30, Sep = 3.39, Oct = 3.39, Nov = 2.26, Dec = 2.05, Annual = 36.58.
Monthly statewide average precipitation (inches) for Kansas based on the 1991–2020 average for each month. Data from: Southern Regional Climate Center.

Oklahoma Monthly Average Precipitation

Mean precipitation by month for Oklahoma over 1991-2020.
Monthly statewide average precipitation (inches) for Oklahoma based on the 1991–2020 average for each month. Data from: Southern Regional Climate Center.

Forecasts and Seasonal Outlooks: December 2022

The Climate Prediction Center's monthly outlook for December shows: 

  • Temperature: December is likely to be warmer than normal for southern Texas and New Mexico. There is an equal chance of above- or below-normal temperatures for the rest of the Southern Plains.
  • Precipitation: Odds slightly favor a dry December, with the highest odds over northeastern New Mexico.

December 2022 Temperature Outlook

In December 2022, odds favor above-normal temperatures for far-southern Texas and southern New Mexico.
Monthly temperature outlook for December 2022, showing the probability (percent chance) of above-normal, below-normal, or near-normal conditions. Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

December 2022 Precipitation Outlook

In December 2022, odds slightly favor below-normal precipitation.
Monthly precipitation outlook for December 2022, showing the probability (percent chance) of above-normal, below-normal, or near-normal conditions. Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

3-Month Outlook for December 2022–February 2023

Seasonal forecasts for winter (December–February) show a warmer and drier-than-normal season ahead for southern Texas and southern New Mexico. There are only weak odds favoring drier weather for the rest of the region.

Seasonal Temperature Outlook: December 2022–February 2023

From December 2022 to February 2023, odds favor above-normal temperatures for much of Texas and New Mexico, with equal chances of above- and below-normal temperatures in Oklahoma and Kansas.
Three-month temperature outlook for December 2022–February 2023, showing the probability (percent chance) of above-normal, below-normal, or near-normal conditions. Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

Seasonal Precipitation Outlook: December 2022–February 2023

From December 2022 to February 2023, odds favor below-normal precipitation across most of the Southern Plains.
Three-month precipitation outlook for December 2022–February 2023, showing the probability (percent chance) of above-normal, below-normal, or near-normal conditions. Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

Seasonal Drought Outlook for December 2022—February 2023

With the seasonal outlooks strongly favoring below-normal precipitation for Texas and generally favoring below-normal precipitation for Oklahoma and Kansas, the Climate Prediction Center's seasonal drought outlook shows continued or returning drought for the region this winter.

3-Month U.S. Drought Outlook

Across the western United States from December to February, drought is forecast to persist in places where it is already present.
U.S. seasonal (3-month) drought outlook, predicting where drought is likely to persist, improve, develop, or be removed from December 1, 2022 to February 28, 2023. Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

State-Based Conditions and Impacts

Kansas

  • November 2022 was in the top 10 driest Novembers on record for both northwestern and west-central Kansas. Combined with the previous month, October–November 2022 is the driest on record in west-central Kansas, where only 0.15 inch of precipitation has fallen.
  • This was the driest July–November on record in south-central Kansas—and in the top 10 driest for southeastern, west-central, and southwestern Kansas. 
  • Precipitation deficits since April 1 range from 3.8 inches in east-central Kansas to 9.0 inches in west-central Kansas.
  • Early November precipitation led to improvements in soil moisture and surface water in southeastern Kansas. 
  • Blowing dust and several wildfires occurred with several strong wind events. 
  • Winter wheat has seasonally gone dormant. Concerns exist with early cold on drought driven poor fall growth.

Consecutive Days Since 0.5" Single-Day Precipitation

Parts of southwest Kansas have gone over 4 months since 0.50 inches of rain or more fell in a single day, with several counties at 132 days.
Number of days since 0.50 inch or more of precipitation was recorded in a single day, as of December 8, 2022. Parts of southwest Kansas have gone over 4 months since 0.50” or more fell in a single day. Source: Kansas Mesonet.

Oklahoma

  • Above-normal precipitation through November into early December helped ease drought conditions in southern and eastern Oklahoma.
  • Deficits remain significant on the 6-month and calendar year time scales, with widespread shortfalls of 5–15 inches.
  • Topsoil moisture has improved statewide, save for the western Panhandle where significant rains have stalled for the past couple of months. 
  • Subsoils remain dry, particularly across northern and western Oklahoma.

Departure from Normal Precipitation: 2022 YTD

From January 1 to December 8, 2022, there are widespread precipitation shortfalls of 5 to 15 inches across Oklahoma.
Departure from normal rainfall totals (inches) for the calendar year through December 8, 2022. Source: Oklahoma Mesonet.

1-Day Average 24-Inch Fractional Water Index

For December 8, the 1-day average 24-inch fractional water index for Oklahoma ranges from 0 (as dry as the sensor can read) to 1.0 (as wet as the sensor can read).
The 1-day average 24-inch Fractional Water Index map displays the 24-hour-averaged soil moisture at 24 inches (60 cm) under native sod for the previous day. Fractional Water Index ranges from 0 (as dry as the sensor can read) to 1.0 (as wet as the sensor can read). Source: Oklahoma Mesonet

Texas

  • While late November rain provided some relief to much of the state, portions of the Edwards Plateau and far-northern Panhandle continue to experience exceptional drought (D4) conditions.
  • To reach average annual rainfall totals in the Edwards Plateau, more than 15 inches of rain would have to fall by the end December.
  • The city of San Antonio had its third driest January to December in the 137-year period of record (3.7 inches less than in 2011).
  • Throughout the state, ranchers continue to provide supplemental feeding for cattle.
  • Cooling temperatures and beneficial rain that covered most of the state in late November allowed sufficient soil moisture for wheat and cool season crops to green up, but continued moisture is needed for fields to thrive.
  • Increased soil moisture hindered pecan, cotton, and peanut harvests.

12-Month Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) Blend

Map of drought intensity in Texas based on a blend of Standardized Precipitation Index values during  the 12-month time frame. Precipitation deficits over the past several months continue to be most severe in south-central Texas and the Texas Panhandle.
Map of drought intensity in Texas based on a blend of Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) values during the 12-month time frame. Precipitation deficits over the past several months continue to be most severe in south-central Texas and the Texas Panhandle. Significantly above-normal precipitation continues to be restricted to portions of western and southern Texas.

For More Information

In Case You Missed It

Prepared By

Joel Lisonbee
NOAA’s National Integrated Drought Information System, Southern Plains Drought Early Warning System and CIRES/CU Boulder

Gary McManus
Oklahoma State Climatologist, Oklahoma Mesonet, Oklahoma Climatological Survey

Chip Redmond
Kansas Assistant State Climatologist, Kansas State University

John Nielsen-Gammon
Texas State Climatologist, Texas A&M University
Southern Regional Climate Center

Victor Murphy
National Weather Service

Special Thanks

 

This drought status update is issued in partnership between the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the offices of the state climatologist for Texas, Oklahoma, New Mexico, and Kansas. The purpose of the update is to communicate a potential area of concern for drought expansion and/or development within the Southern Plains based on recent conditions and the upcoming forecast. NIDIS and its partners will issue future drought updates as conditions evolve.