Hazard Planning & Preparedness

Data from the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center's (CPC) Week 2 (Day 8–14) U.S. Hazards Outlook were available as shapefiles from the CPC Hazards Web Service. This map displays Rapid Onset Drought (ROD) hazard risk areas.

Below are the criteria used for issuing Rapid Onset Drought risk areas. Because prior conditions play a role in impacts of these hazards, these hazard definitions are only guidelines. The Hazards Outlook contains human-drawn delineations of where various variables are expected to have the potential of posing a hazard to life or property. The forecasters do apply a subjective decision factor when delineating a hazard area. A cold snap in the winter or a heatwave in the summer are likely threats to life and property, while a cool period in July is not.

Rapid Onset Drought: The Rapid Onset Drought risk product highlights areas where rapid drought development (sometimes known as “flash drought”) may occur in the coming 2–4 weeks as depicted by the U.S. Drought Monitor. Forecasters use initial conditions, such antecedent dryness (e.g., soil moisture), and skillful temperature and precipitation outlooks during the next 2 weeks to communicate the risk of rapidly developing drought. The primary tools used to define areas at risk for Rapid Onset Drought development include:

• Abnormal Dryness (D0) in the current U.S. Drought Monitor
• Soil moisture below the 30th percentile
• 7-day positive temperature anomalies from the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD), especially if a period of extreme heat is possible 
• No precipitation forecast or forecast negative precipitation anomalies from the National Weather Service's Weather Prediction Center and the CPC’s 8–14 day outlooks.

These conditions are markers for potential degradation of two categories or more in a four-week period based on the U.S. Drought Monitor.

Fire outlooks data were available in a GIS format from the National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center (SPC).

The SPC is responsible for forecasting meteorological conditions which, when combined with the antecedent fuel conditions, favor rapid growth and spread of a fire should an ignition occur. Although the ignition source of a fire is often due to non-meteorological factors, the SPC does forecast dry thunderstorms, which are considered the only meteorological ignition source.

The SPC issues five categorical risk areas to highlight fire weather threats in the day 1 and 2 fire weather outlooks: elevated, critical, or extremely critical for temperature, wind and relative humidity (RH), as well as a isolated or scattered (critical) for dry thunderstorms. Learn more about the criteria used to issue these outlooks.