Pacific Northwest DEWS Drought & Climate Outlook Webinar: August 26, 2024

Webinar Introduction

Speaker: Jason Gerlich | Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental ScNOAA's National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS)

• This bi-monthly webinar is co-hosted by NIDIS, the USDA Northwest Climate Hub, and the Oregon Climate Change Research Institute (OCCRI).
• The FY25 NIDIS Coping with Drought grant competition is open, focused on understanding and assessing drought in a changing climate. 
• Register today for the Oregon-Washington Water Year 2024 Recap & 2025 Outlook Meeting.
• The USDA Climate Hubs are celebrating 10 years and have recently created a story map highlighting their successes. 

Climate Recap and Current Conditions

Speaker:  Larry O’Neill | Oregon State University/Oregon Climate Service

• A relatively wet June gave way to a historically warm July, which led to a flash drought characterized by widespread excessive evaporation early in the season
• Drought increased substantially in coverage and intensity throughout the Pacific Northwest.
• The region has had an active wildfire season, particularly in eastern Oregon.
• Low summer streamflows in Washington, Montana, and northern Idaho followed this winter’s snow drought and a very warm July.
• Mid-August showers and thunderstorms brought a welcome respite to drought and wildfire conditions, but did not end either.

Seasonal Conditions & Climate Outlook

Speaker: Robin Fox | National Weather Service Spokane

• Recent rains were beneficial, although drought or abnormally dry conditions reamin across the Pacific Northwest.
• Summer heat continues into September, and concerns on drought and fire weather persist.
• Outlooks:
  • 8-14 day outlook: There are elevated odds for above-average temperatures and above- to near-normal precipitation for most of the Pacific Northwest.
  • September outlook: Odds favor above-normal temperatures across southern Oregon and Idaho, with equal chances of above-, near- or below-normal temperatures across Washington. Above-normal precipitation is favored for western Washington and Oregon, with  equal chances elsewhere in the region. 
  • September–November outlook: There are elevated odds for above-normal precipitation in western Washington and Oregon and for above-normal temperatures in eastern Oregon, Idaho, and Montana.
  • drought outlooks: The monthly outlook predicts that drought conditions will persist or develop across much of eastern Oregon an Washington, and much of Idaho. Through November, drought persistence is likely for Idaho and Montana, with drought improvements or removal likely for Washington and Oregon.
• We are currently El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral, with a transition to La Niña expected in September–November.
• According to the National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC), significant wildland fire potential will be above normal across much of the Pacific Northwest from August through September.

Oregon Integrated Water Resources Strategy Update 

Speaker: Crystal Grinnell | Oregon Water Resources Department

• Oregon released its 2024 Integrated Water Resources Strategy Draft 1 in March 2024.
• The Governor’s Office and state agency leadership are working to develop action priorities.
• Additional engagement is planned for fall 2024.
• Draft #2, along with public review and comment, is planned for 2025.
• For more information, contact Crystal.A.Grinnell@water.oregon.gov. 

Q&A and Conclusion 

Speaker: Jason Gerlich | CIRES, NOAA/NIDIS